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Does Fiscal Policy Matter for Stock-Bond Return Correlation?

Author

Listed:
  • Erica X.N. Li
  • Tao Zha
  • Ji Zhang
  • Hao Zhou

Abstract

We explore an important role of monetary-fiscal policy interactions in explaining three stylized facts: (1) a positive correlation of stock and bond returns in 1971-2001 and a negative one after 2001, (2) a negative correlation of consumption and inflation in 1971-2001 and a positive one after 2001, and (3) the coexistence of a positive bond risk premium and a negative correlation of stock and bond returns. Our general equilibrium model shows that these correlation changes across two policy regimes are driven by a combination of technology and investment shocks, while positive risk premiums are driven by the technology shock only.

Suggested Citation

  • Erica X.N. Li & Tao Zha & Ji Zhang & Hao Zhou, 2020. "Does Fiscal Policy Matter for Stock-Bond Return Correlation?," NBER Working Papers 27861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27861
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Pflueger, Carolin, 2025. "Back to the 1980s or not? The drivers of inflation and real risks in Treasury bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    3. Liu, Rongyan & He, Lingyun & Xia, Yufei & Fu, Yating & Chen, Ling, 2023. "Research on the time-varying effects among green finance markets in China: A fresh evidence from multi-frequency scale perspective," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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