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Intermediary Balance Sheets and the Treasury Yield Curve

Author

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  • Wenxin Du
  • Benjamin M. Hébert
  • Wenhao Li

Abstract

We document a regime change in the Treasury market post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC): dealers switched from net short to net long Treasury bonds. We construct “net-long” and “netshort” curves that account for balance sheet and financing costs, and show that actual yields moved from the net short curve pre-GFC to the net long curve post-GFC. Our theory shows the regime shift caused negative swap spreads and co-movement among swap spreads, dealer positions, and covered-interest-parity violations. Furthermore, the effects of various monetary and regulatory policies are regime-dependent. We highlight Treasury supply as a plausible driver of this regime shift.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenxin Du & Benjamin M. Hébert & Wenhao Li, 2022. "Intermediary Balance Sheets and the Treasury Yield Curve," NBER Working Papers 30222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30222
    Note: AP IFM ME
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    Cited by:

    1. Darrell Duffie & Michael Fleming & Frank Keane & Claire Nelson & Or Shachar & Peter Van Tassel, 2023. "Dealer capacity and US Treasury market functionality," BIS Working Papers 1138, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Bryan Hardy & Sonya Zhu, 2023. "Covid, central banks and the bank-sovereign nexus," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    3. Iñaki Aldasoro & Peter Hördahl & Sonya Zhu, 2022. "Under pressure: market conditions and stress," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    4. Hanson, Samuel G. & Malkhozov, Aytek & Venter, Gyuri, 2024. "Demand-and-supply imbalance risk and long-term swap spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    5. David O. Lucca & Jonathan H. Wright, 2024. "The Narrow Channel of Quantitative Easing: Evidence from YCC Down Under," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(2), pages 1055-1085, April.
    6. Kevin Pallara & Marcello Pericoli & Pietro Tommasino, 2025. "Issuing European safe assets: how to get the most out of Eurobonds?," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 937, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Daniel Barth & R. Jay Kahn & Phillip J. Monin & Oleg Sokolinskiy, 2024. "Reaching for Duration and Leverage in the Treasury Market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-039, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Lou, Dong & Pinter, Gabor & Üslü, Semih & Walker, Danny, 2025. "Yield drifts when issuance comes before macro news," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    9. Ahmed, Rashad & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2024. "Dollar reserves and U.S. yields: Identifying the price impact of official flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    10. Zhengyang Jiang & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Mindy Z. Xiaolan, 2024. "The U.S. Public Debt Valuation Puzzle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 92(4), pages 1309-1347, July.
    11. Wenxin Du & Ritt Keerati & Jesse Schreger, 2025. "Decoupling Dollar and Treasury Privilege," International Finance Discussion Papers 1427, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Patrick Augustin & Mikhail Chernov & Lukas Schmid & Dongho Song, 2024. "The Term Structure of Covered Interest Rate Parity Violations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 2077-2114, June.
    13. Jonas Becker & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2024. "Global Bank Lending and Exchange Rates," BIS Working Papers 1161, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. d'Avernas, Adrien & Vandeweyer, Quentin & Petersen, Damon, 2025. "The central bank’s balance sheet and treasury market disruptions," Working Paper Series 3066, European Central Bank.
    15. Thomas M. Eisenbach & Gregory Phelan, 2023. "Fragility of Safe Assets," Working Papers 23-02, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    16. Huber, Amy Wang, 2023. "Market power in wholesale funding: A structural perspective from the triparty repo market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(2), pages 235-259.
    17. Matthias Fleckenstein & Francis A. Longstaff, 2024. "Treasury Richness," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(4), pages 2797-2844, August.
    18. Alexiou, Georgios Angelis & Pereira, Sofia M. & Rodrigues-Gomes, Victor, 2025. "Repo collateral reuse and liquidity windfalls," Working Paper Series 3147, European Central Bank.
    19. Hartley, Jonathan S. & Jermann, Urban J., 2024. "The pricing of U.S. Treasury floating rate notes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    20. Huang, Wenqian & Ranaldo, Angelo & Schrimpf, Andreas & Somogyi, Fabricius, 2025. "Constrained liquidity provision in currency markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    21. Fleming, Michael & Nguyen, Giang & Rosenberg, Joshua, 2024. "How do Treasury dealers manage their positions?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    22. Du, Wenxin & Keerati, Ritt & Schreger, Jesse, 2025. "Decoupling Dollar and Treasury Privilege," SocArXiv 7u9kn_v1, Center for Open Science.
    23. Ragnar Juelsrud & Plamen Nenov & Fabienne Schneider & Olav Syrstad, 2025. "Money Talks: Transaction Costs, the Value of Convenience, and the Cross-Section of Safe Asset Returns," Staff Working Papers 25-34, Bank of Canada.
    24. Jappelli, Ruggero & Pelizzon, Loriana & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2023. "Quantitative easing, the repo market, and the term structure of interest rates," SAFE Working Paper Series 395, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

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