IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ioe/doctra/480.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Addicted to Debt: Foreign Purchases of U.S. Treasuries and the Term Premium

Author

Listed:
  • David Kohn

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds by foreigners on long-term yields and the term-premium. I set up a consumption-based model with habit preferences, calibrate it to match the average slope of the yield curve in the U.S., and find that foreign purchases decreased long-term yields significantly over the period prior to the financial crisis. Half of this change is explained by a drop in the term-premium: in the model, foreign purchases increase domestic agents' consumption above their habit, thus reducing their risk-aversion and decreasing the term-premium. Finally, I investigate the potential impact of a sell-off of U.S. Treasuries by foreigners. I show that such a reversal of foreign inflows would result in a sharp increase in the term-premium and, thus, in long-term yields.

Suggested Citation

  • David Kohn, 2017. "Addicted to Debt: Foreign Purchases of U.S. Treasuries and the Term Premium," Documentos de Trabajo 480, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  • Handle: RePEc:ioe:doctra:480
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economia.uc.cl/docs/dt_480.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:wsi:qjfxxx:v:04:y:2014:i:01:n:s2010139214500013 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Rodrigo Alfaro & Mauricio Calani, 2018. "Pension Funds and the Yield Curve: The Role of Preference for Maturity," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 821, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. John Nana Francois, 2016. "Foreign Official Holdings of U.S Treasuries, Stock Effect and the Economy: A DSGE Approach," 2016 Papers pfr351, Job Market Papers.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ioe:doctra:480. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jaime Casassus). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/iepuccl.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.