IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/idb/idbchp/12664-c8.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Past the Tipping Point? Assessing Debt Overhang in Latin America and the Caribbean

In: Dealing with Debt

Author

Listed:
  • Leandro Andrián

    (Inter-American Development Bank)

  • Oscar Mauricio Valencia

    (Inter-American Development Bank)

Abstract

Debt has risen around the world, and Latin America and the Caribbean is no exception. Total debt has grown to US$5.8 trillion, or 117 percent of GDP, for the region and as much as 140 percent of GDP for its five largest economies. Public debt soared to over 70 percent of GDP during the pandemic, and corporates issued substantial amounts to survive the crisis. While the spending that led to this debt helped the region weather the pandemic, it is now weighing down the economy. This book examines the rise in debt in Latin America and the Caribbean and offers recommendations to policymakers to ensure debt is used wisely, avoid the harmful impacts, manage high debt levels well, and bring down debt where it is too high. It is hoped that the analyses and policy suggestions in this volume contribute to successfully confronting the challenges, lowering risk, boosting growth, and improving living standards across the region and beyond.

Suggested Citation

  • Leandro Andrián & Oscar Mauricio Valencia, 2023. "Past the Tipping Point? Assessing Debt Overhang in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 8, pages 183-196, Inter-American Development Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:idb:idbchp:12664-c8
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1823
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/dealing-with-debt-less-risk-for-more-growth-in-latin-america-and-the-caribbean.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/http://dx.doi.org/10.1823?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    2. Ms. Elva Bova & Mr. Robert Dippelsman & Ms. Kara C Rideout & Ms. Andrea Schaechter, 2013. "Another Look at Governments’ Balance Sheets: The Role of Nonfinancial Assets," IMF Working Papers 2013/095, International Monetary Fund.
    3. William R. Cline, 1995. "International Debt Reexamined," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 46, October.
    4. Bobba, Matteo & Powell, Andrew, 2006. "Multilateral Intermediation of Foreign Aid: What is the Trade-Off for Donor Countries?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1602, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2002. "Growth Is Good for the Poor," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 195-225, September.
    6. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
    7. Cordella, Tito & Powell, Andrew, 2021. "Preferred and non-preferred creditors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    8. Ms. Elva Bova & Marta Ruiz-Arranz & Mr. Frederik G Toscani & H. Elif Ture, 2016. "The Fiscal Costs of Contingent Liabilities: A New Dataset," IMF Working Papers 2016/014, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Eberhardt, Markus & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2015. "Public debt and growth: Heterogeneity and non-linearity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 45-58.
    10. Emmanuel Farhi & Jean Tirole, 2018. "Deadly Embrace: Sovereign and Financial Balance Sheets Doom Loops," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(3), pages 1781-1823.
    11. Daniel W. Apley & Jingyu Zhu, 2020. "Visualizing the effects of predictor variables in black box supervised learning models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1059-1086, September.
    12. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1989. "Sovereign Debt: Is to Forgive to Forget?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 43-50, March.
    13. Mr. Julio Escolano, 2010. "A Practical Guide to Public Debt Dynamics, Fiscal Sustainability, and Cyclical Adjustment of Budgetary Aggregates," IMF Technical Notes and Manuals 2010/002, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Dooley, Michael & Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & Kletzer, Kenneth, 1996. "Is the Debt Crisis History? Recent Private Capital Inflows to Developing Countries," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 10(1), pages 27-50, January.
    15. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1988. "Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 647-661, September.
    16. Denizer, Cevdet & Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart, 2013. "Good countries or good projects? Macro and micro correlates of World Bank project performance," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 288-302.
    17. Canuto, Otaviano & Liu, Lili, 2013. "Subnational Debt, Insolvency, and Market Development," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 112, pages 1-7, April.
    18. Aizenman, Joshua & Powell, Andrew, 1998. "The political economy of public savings and the role of capital mobility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 67-95, October.
    19. Alberto F. Alesina & Francesca Lotti & Paolo Emilio Mistrulli, 2013. "Do Women Pay More For Credit? Evidence From Italy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 45-66, January.
    20. Alberto Alesina & Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2019. "Effects of Austerity: Expenditure- and Tax-Based Approaches," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 141-162, Spring.
    21. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2013. "Growth and productivity: The role of government debt," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 384-407.
    22. Christian Dembiermont & Mathias Drehmann & Siriporn Muksakunratana, 2013. "How much does the private sector really borrow - a new database for total credit to the private non-financial sector," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    23. Bellucci, Andrea & Borisov, Alexander & Zazzaro, Alberto, 2010. "Does gender matter in bank-firm relationships? Evidence from small business lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2968-2984, December.
    24. Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 690-712, June.
    25. Ardanaz, Martín & Cavallo, Eduardo & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Puig, Jorge, 2021. "Growth-friendly fiscal rules? Safeguarding public investment from budget cuts through fiscal rule design," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    26. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2006. "Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 64-83, June.
    27. Matteo Bobba & Andrew Powell, 2006. "Multilateral Intermediation of Foreign Aid: What is the Trade-Off for Donor Countries?," Research Department Publications 4500, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    28. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, 2014. "The Employment Effects of Credit Market Disruptions: Firm-level Evidence from the 2008-9 Financial Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(1), pages 1-59.
    29. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
    30. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2000. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116.
    31. Mr. Nigel A Chalk & Mr. Richard Hemming, 2000. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 2000/081, International Monetary Fund.
    32. Juan J. Cruces & Christoph Trebesch, 2013. "Sovereign Defaults: The Price of Haircuts," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 85-117, July.
    33. Ran Bi, 2008. "“Beneficial” Delays in Debt Restructuring Negotiations," IMF Working Papers 2008/038, International Monetary Fund.
    34. Steven M Fazzari & Piero Ferri & Anna Maria Variato, 2020. "Demand-led growth and accommodating supply," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 583-605.
    35. Andrés de la Cruz & Ignacio Lagos, 2021. "CACs at work: what next? Lessons from the Argentine and Ecuadorian 2020 debt restructurings," Capital Markets Law Journal, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 226-248.
    36. Mathias Dewatripont & Jean Tirole, 2012. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Banking Regulation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(s2), pages 237-254, December.
    37. Avellán, Leopoldo & Galindo, Arturo J. & Lotti, Giulia, 2021. "Sovereign external borrowing and multilateral lending in crises," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 206-238.
    38. Agier, Isabelle & Szafarz, Ariane, 2013. "Microfinance and Gender: Is There a Glass Ceiling on Loan Size?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 165-181.
    39. Mr. Bennett W Sutton & Mr. Luis Catão, 2002. "Sovereign Defaults: The Role of Volatility," IMF Working Papers 2002/149, International Monetary Fund.
    40. Nicolas R Blancher & Maximiliano Appendino & Aidyn Bibolov & Armand Fouejieu & Jiawei Li & Anta Ndoye & Alexandra Panagiotakopoulou & Wei Shi & Tetyana Sydorenko, 2019. "Financial Inclusion of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in the Middle East and Central Asia," IMF Departmental Papers / Policy Papers 2019/002, International Monetary Fund.
    41. Bohn, Henning, 1995. "The Sustainability of Budget Deficits in a Stochastic Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 257-271, February.
    42. Ran Bi, 2008. ""Beneficial" Delays in Debt Restructuring Negotiations," 2008 Meeting Papers 766, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    43. Bernardini, Marco & Forni, Lorenzo, 2020. "Private and public debt interlinkages in bad times," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    44. Barry Eichengreen & Ugo Panizza, 2016. "A surplus of ambition: can Europe rely on large primary surpluses to solve its debt problem?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 31(85), pages 5-49.
    45. Otaviano Canuto & Lili Liu, 2013. "Until Debt Do Us Part : Subnational Debt, Insolvency, and Markets," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 12597, December.
    46. Erosa, Andres & Ventura, Gustavo, 2002. "On inflation as a regressive consumption tax," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 761-795, May.
    47. Julio Escolano, 2010. "A Practical Guide to Public Debt Dynamics, Fiscal Sustainability, and Cyclical Adjustment of Budgetary Aggregates," IMF Technical Notes and Manuals 10/02, International Monetary Fund.
    48. Jean François Clevy & Mr. Guilherme Pedras & Mrs. Esther Perez Ruiz, 2021. "Financing for the Post-pandemic Recovery: Developing Domestic Sovereign Debt Markets in Central America," IMF Working Papers 2021/283, International Monetary Fund.
    49. Bohn, Henning, 2007. "Are stationarity and cointegration restrictions really necessary for the intertemporal budget constraint?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1837-1847, October.
    50. Beck, Thorsten & Behr, Patrick & Madestam, Andreas, 2018. "Sex and credit: Do gender interactions matter for credit market outcomes?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 380-396.
    51. Mr. Hamid R Davoodi & Paul Elger & Alexandra Fotiou & Mr. Daniel Garcia-Macia & Xuehui Han & Andresa Lagerborg & Mr. Waikei R Lam & Mr. Paulo A Medas, 2022. "Fiscal Rules and Fiscal Councils: Recent Trends and Performance during the COVID-19 Pandemic," IMF Working Papers 2022/011, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. María Cecilia Acevedo & Leandro Andrián & Victoria Nuguer & Oscar Mauricio Valencia, 2023. "Understanding the Rise in Debt," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 4, pages 67-94, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia, 2023. "The Bottom Line on Debt," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 13, pages 309-318, Inter-American Development Bank.
    3. Leopoldo Avellán & Arturo Galindo & Giulia Lotti, 2023. "Official Creditors: Providing More than Money," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 7, pages 161-182, Inter-American Development Bank.
    4. Ugo Panizza & Andrew Powell, 2023. "Reducing Public Debt: What Works Best?," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 9, pages 197-222, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. Juan Manuel Hernández & Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia, 2023. "Debt Sustainability: More Important than Ever," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 5, pages 95-122, Inter-American Development Bank.
    6. Eduardo Cavallo & Eduardo Fernández Arias, 2023. "Strong External Balance Sheets for Resilient Economies," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 2, pages 5-36, Inter-American Development Bank.
    7. María Cecilia Acevedo & Vanessa Alviarez & Joaquin Lennon Sabatini, 2023. "Managing Private Debt," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 11, pages 255-284, Inter-American Development Bank.
    8. Powell, Andrew & Valencia, Oscar, 2023. "Dealing with Debt: Less Risk for More Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 12664.
    9. Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia, 2023. "The Debt Conundrum," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 1, pages 1-4, Inter-American Development Bank.
    10. João Ayres & Anna Gelpern & Andrew Powell, 2023. "Sovereign Debt Restructuring: In Need of a New Approach," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 10, pages 223-254, Inter-American Development Bank.
    11. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Andrew Powell, 2023. "Sovereign Debt Management," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 6, pages 123-160, Inter-American Development Bank.
    12. Rodrigo Heresi & Andrew Powell, 2023. "Balance Sheet Vulnerabilities in the Wake of the Pandemic," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 12, pages 285-308, Inter-American Development Bank.
    13. Eduardo Borensztein & Eduardo Cavallo, 2023. "Domestic Bond Markets: Successes and Challenges," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 3, pages 37-66, Inter-American Development Bank.
    14. D’Erasmo, P. & Mendoza, E.G. & Zhang, J., 2016. "What is a Sustainable Public Debt?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2493-2597, Elsevier.
    15. Trebesch, Christoph & Zabel, Michael, 2017. "The output costs of hard and soft sovereign default," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 416-432.
    16. Mitchener, Kris & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century: Looking Backward, Looking Forward," CEPR Discussion Papers 15935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Zhengyang Jiang & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Mindy Z. Xiaolan, 2020. "Manufacturing Risk-free Government Debt," NBER Working Papers 27786, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Popov, Sergey V. & Wiczer, David G., 2009. "Equilibrium sovereign default with endogenous exchange rate depreciation," MPRA Paper 18854, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Marchesi, Silvia & Masi, Tania, 2021. "Life after default. Private and official deals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    20. Fabrice Collard & Michel Habib & Jean-Charles Rochet, 2015. "Sovereign Debt Sustainability In Advanced Economies," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 381-420, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt; Debts; Public-Latin America; Public-Caribbean Area; Financial institutions-Latin America; Financial institutions; Financial institutions; Financial institutions; Macroeconomics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts
    • H87 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - International Fiscal Issues; International Public Goods
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:idb:idbchp:12664-c8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Felipe Herrera Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iadbbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.