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Good countries or good projects ? macro and micro correlates of World Bank project performance

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  • Denizer, Cevdet
  • Kaufmann, Daniel
  • Kraay, Aart

Abstract

The authors use data from more than 6,000 World Bank projects evaluated between 1983 and 2009 to investigate macro and micro correlates of project outcomes. They find that country-level"macro"measures of the quality of policies and institutions are very strongly correlated with project outcomes, confirming the importance of country-level performance for the effective use of aid resources. However, a striking feature of the data is that the success of individual development projects varies much more within countries than it does between countries. The authors assemble a large set of project-level"micro"correlates of project outcomes in an effort to explain some of this within-country variation. They find that measures of project size, the extent of project supervision, and evaluation lags are all significantly correlated with project outcomes, as are early-warning indicators that flag problematic projects during the implementation stage. They also find that measures of World Bank project task manager quality matter significantly for the ultimate outcome of projects. They discuss the implications of these findings for donor policies aimed at aid effectiveness.

Suggested Citation

  • Denizer, Cevdet & Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart, 2011. "Good countries or good projects ? macro and micro correlates of World Bank project performance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5646, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5646
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing&Human Habitats; Poverty Monitoring&Analysis; Banks&Banking Reform; Economic Theory&Research; Country Strategy&Performance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth

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