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What explains aid project success in post-conflict situations ?

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  • Chauvet, Lisa
  • Collier, Paul
  • Duponchel, Marguerite

Abstract

This paper investigates the effectiveness of post-conflict aid at the project level and aims to identify post-conflict situations as a window of opportunity for project success. The Independent Evaluation Group dataset provides extensive information on the characteristics of World Bank projects including an independent rating of their success, supervision and evaluationquality. The paper estimates the probability of success of aid projects depending on the characteristics of the intervention and looks for possible special patterns in post civil war situations. The results suggest that the probability of success of World Bank projects increases as peace lasts. Supervision appears to be a crucial determinant of the success of projects, especially during the first years of peace. Although the results of the sector-level analysis need to be taken with caution, the authors find that projects in the transport sector and in the urban development sector appear more successful in post-conflict environments. On the contrary, education projects seem less successful and therefore need to be highly supervised. Projects in the private sector should wait as they face a higher probability of failure in the first years of peace.

Suggested Citation

  • Chauvet, Lisa & Collier, Paul & Duponchel, Marguerite, 2010. "What explains aid project success in post-conflict situations ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5418, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5418
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    Cited by:

    1. Limodio, Nicola, 2011. "The success of infrastructure projects in low-income countries and the role of selectivity," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5694, The World Bank.
    2. Denizer, Cevdet & Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart, 2013. "Good countries or good projects? Macro and micro correlates of World Bank project performance," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 288-302.
    3. Iyer, Lakshmi & Santos, Indhira, 2012. "Creating jobs in South Asia's conflict zones," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6104, The World Bank.
    4. Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2016. "Recent patterns of post-conflict aid: Did donors help sustain peace?," Kiel Working Papers 2043, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    5. Presbitero, Andrea F., 2016. "Too much and too fast? Public investment scaling-up and absorptive capacity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 17-31.
    6. Urbain Thierry Yogo & Douzounet Mallaye, 2015. "Health Aid and Health Improvement in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Accounting for the Heterogeneity Between Stable States and Post‐Conflict States," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 1178-1196, October.
    7. Aurore Gary & Mathilde Maurel, 2013. "The effect of donors' policy coherence on growth," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13046, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    8. Yogo, Urbain Thierry & Mallaye, Douzounet, 2012. "Health Aid and Health Improvement in Sub Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 44938, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Feeny, Simon & Vuong, Vu, 2017. "Explaining Aid Project and Program Success: Findings from Asian Development Bank Interventions," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 329-343.
    10. Donaubauer, Julian & Herzer, Dierk & Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2016. "The effectiveness of aid under post-conflict conditions: A sector-specific analysis," Kiel Working Papers 2065, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    11. Moll, Peter & Geli, Patricia & Saavedra, Pablo, 2015. "Correlates of success in World Bank development policy lending," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7181, The World Bank.
    12. Christopher Kilby & Katharina Michaelowa, 2016. "What Influences World Bank Project Evaluations?," Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series 26, Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics.

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    Keywords

    Post Conflict Reconstruction; Post Conflict Reintegration; Social Conflict and Violence; Peace&Peacekeeping; Housing&Human Habitats;

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