IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/deveco/v158y2022ics0304387822000621.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

China and the World Bank—How contrasting development approaches affect the stability of African states

Author

Listed:
  • Gehring, Kai
  • Kaplan, Lennart C.
  • Wong, Melvin H.L.

Abstract

China’s development model challenges the approaches of traditional donors like the World Bank (WB). While some see this mostly as a chance, Chinese aid specifically and aid in general are also suspected of undermining developing countries’ stability for various reasons. To examine the effect of aid on stability thoroughly, we define stability as a continuum ranging from outright over social conflict to attitudes about democracy. We find no evidence that either WB or Chinese aid increases conflict in Africa using a comprehensive set of georeferenced aid projects and sub-national stability measures. Those results are robust and hold across different types of outright conflict, but also for social conflict. Overall, WB aid correlates more strongly with a reduction of conflict than Chinese aid. Moreover, WB aid is associated with a more positive attitude about democracy, while Chinese aid is related to an increased acceptance of authoritarian models.

Suggested Citation

  • Gehring, Kai & Kaplan, Lennart C. & Wong, Melvin H.L., 2022. "China and the World Bank—How contrasting development approaches affect the stability of African states," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:158:y:2022:i:c:s0304387822000621
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.102902
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387822000621
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.102902?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Iacoella, Francesco & Martorano, Bruno & Metzger, Laura & Sanfilippo, Marco, 2021. "Chinese official finance and political participation in Africa," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    2. Axel Dreher & Andreas Fuchs, 2015. "Rogue aid? An empirical analysis of China's aid allocation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 48(3), pages 988-1023, August.
    3. Eli Berman & Jacob N. Shapiro & Joseph H. Felter, 2011. "Can Hearts and Minds Be Bought? The Economics of Counterinsurgency in Iraq," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(4), pages 766-819.
    4. Nathan Nunn & Nancy Qian, 2014. "US Food Aid and Civil Conflict," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1630-1666, June.
    5. Richard Bluhm & Axel Dreher & Andreas Fuchs & Bradley C. Parks & Austin M. Strange & Michael J. Tierney, 2020. "Connective Financing - Chinese Infrastructure Projects and the Diffusion of Economic Activity in Developing Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 8344, CESifo.
    6. Gehring, Kai, 2021. "Overcoming History Through Exit or Integration: Deep-Rooted Sources of Support for the European Union," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 199-217, February.
    7. Richard Bluhm & Martin Gassebner & Sarah Langlotz & Paul Schaudt, 2021. "Fueling conflict? (De)escalation and bilateral aid," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 244-261, March.
    8. Chauvet, Lisa & Collier, Paul & Duponchel, Marguerite, 2010. "What explains aid project success in post-conflict situations ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5418, The World Bank.
    9. Axel Dreher & Steffen Lohmann, 2015. "Aid and growth at the regional level," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 31(3-4), pages 420-446.
    10. Gehring, Kai & Langlotz, Sarah & Kienberger, Stefan, 2018. "Stimulant or depressant? Resource-related income shocks and conflict," Working Papers 0652, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    11. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2011. "Fragile States And Development Policy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 371-398, June.
    12. A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach & Douglas L. Miller, 2011. "Robust Inference With Multiway Clustering," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 238-249, April.
    13. Joseph G. Altonji & David Card, 1991. "The Effects of Immigration on the Labor Market Outcomes of Less-skilled Natives," NBER Chapters, in: Immigration, Trade, and the Labor Market, pages 201-234, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Valentin Lang, 2021. "The economics of the democratic deficit: The effect of IMF programs on inequality," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 599-623, July.
    15. Humphrey, Chris & Michaelowa, Katharina, 2019. "China in Africa: Competition for traditional development finance institutions?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 15-28.
    16. Isaksson, Ann-Sofie & Kotsadam, Andreas, 2018. "Racing to the bottom? Chinese development projects and trade union involvement in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 284-298.
    17. Isaksson, Ann-Sofie & Kotsadam, Andreas, 2018. "Chinese aid and local corruption," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 146-159.
    18. Oeindrila Dube & Juan F. Vargas, 2013. "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1384-1421.
    19. Richard Bluhm & Martin Gassebner & Sarah Langlotz & Paul Schaudt, 2021. "Fueling conflict? (De)escalation and bilateral aid," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 244-261, March.
    20. Emily Oster, 2019. "Unobservable Selection and Coefficient Stability: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 187-204, April.
    21. Anaxagorou, Christiana & Efthyvoulou, Georgios & Sarantides, Vassilis, 2020. "Electoral motives and the subnational allocation of foreign aid in sub-Saharan Africa," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    22. Nicolas Berman & Mathieu Couttenier & Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig, 2017. "This Mine Is Mine! How Minerals Fuel Conflicts in Africa," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(6), pages 1564-1610, June.
    23. Sirus H. Dehdari & Kai Gehring, 2022. "The Origins of Common Identity: Evidence from Alsace-Lorraine," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 261-292, January.
    24. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle, August.
    25. Marc F. Bellemare & Casey J. Wichman, 2020. "Elasticities and the Inverse Hyperbolic Sine Transformation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(1), pages 50-61, February.
    26. Hristos Doucouliagos & Martin Paldam, 2009. "The Aid Effectiveness Literature: The Sad Results Of 40 Years Of Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 433-461, July.
    27. Idean Salehyan & Cullen S. Hendrix & Jesse Hamner & Christina Case & Christopher Linebarger & Emily Stull & Jennifer Williams, 2012. "Social Conflict in Africa: A New Database," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 503-511, September.
    28. Aidt, Toke S. & Albornoz, Facundo & Gassebner, Martin, 2018. "The golden hello and political transitions," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 157-173.
    29. Hannes Öhler & Mario Negre & Lodewijk Smets & Renzo Massari & Željko Bogetić, 2019. "Putting your money where your mouth is: Geographic targeting of World Bank projects to the bottom 40 percent," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(6), pages 1-19, June.
    30. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2002. "AID, Policy and Peace: Reducing the risks of civil conflict," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(6), pages 435-450.
    31. Crost, Benjamin & Felter, Joseph H. & Johnston, Patrick B., 2016. "Conditional cash transfers, civil conflict and insurgent influence: Experimental evidence from the Philippines," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 171-182.
    32. Gonzalez, Francisco M. & Neary, Hugh M., 2008. "Prosperity without conflict," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(10-11), pages 2170-2181, October.
    33. Knutsen, Tora & Kotsadam, Andreas, 2020. "The political economy of aid allocation: Aid and incumbency at the local level in Sub Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    34. Gehring, Kai & Lang, Valentin, 2020. "Stigma or cushion? IMF programs and sovereign creditworthiness," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    35. Kersting, Erasmus & Kilby, Christopher, 2014. "Aid and democracy redux," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 125-143.
    36. Sexton, Renard, 2016. "Aid as a Tool against Insurgency: Evidence from Contested and Controlled Territory in Afghanistan," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 731-749, November.
    37. repec:ces:ifodic:v:16:y:2018:i:3:p:50000000003760 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. Richard A. Nielsen & Michael G. Findley & Zachary S. Davis & Tara Candland & Daniel L. Nielson, 2011. "Foreign Aid Shocks as a Cause of Violent Armed Conflict," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(2), pages 219-232, April.
    39. Wegenast, Tim & Krauser, Mario & Strüver, Georg & Giesen, Juliane, 2019. "At Africa’s expense? Disaggregating the employment effects of Chinese mining operations in sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 39-51.
    40. Briggs, Ryan C., 2018. "Poor targeting: A gridded spatial analysis of the degree to which aid reaches the poor in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 133-148.
    41. Sebastian Galiani & Stephen Knack & Lixin Colin Xu & Ben Zou, 2017. "The effect of aid on growth: evidence from a Quasi-experiment," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-33, March.
    42. Axel Dreher & Andreas Fuchs & Bradley Parks & Austin Strange & Michael J. Tierney, 2021. "Aid, China, and Growth: Evidence from a New Global Development Finance Dataset," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 135-174, May.
    43. J. Vernon Henderson & Adam Storeygard & David N. Weil, 2012. "Measuring Economic Growth from Outer Space," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 994-1028, April.
    44. Alberto Alesina & Eliana La Ferrara, 2003. "Ethnic Diversity and Economic Performance," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2028, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    45. Kai Gehring & Sarah Langlotz, 2018. "Resource-related Income Shocks and Conflict," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 16(03), pages 41-47, November.
    46. Samuel Brazys & Johan A. Elkink & Gina Kelly, 2017. "Bad neighbors? How co-located Chinese and World Bank development projects impact local corruption in Tanzania," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 227-253, June.
    47. Gibson, Christopher & Woolcock, Michael, 2005. "Empowerment and local level conflict mediation in Indonesia : a comparative analysis of concepts, measures, and project efficacy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3713, The World Bank.
    48. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
    49. Cook, Seth & Lu, Jixia & Tugendhat, Henry & Alemu, Dawit, 2016. "Chinese Migrants in Africa: Facts and Fictions from the Agri-Food Sector in Ethiopia and Ghana," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 61-70.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Richard Bluhm & Axel Dreher & Andreas Fuchs & Bradley C. Parks & Austin M. Strange & Michael J. Tierney, 2020. "Connective Financing - Chinese Infrastructure Projects and the Diffusion of Economic Activity in Developing Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 8344, CESifo.
    2. Fuchs, Andreas & Kaplan, Lennart & Kis-Katos, Krisztina & Schmidt, Sebastian S. & Turbanisch, Felix & Wang, Feicheng, 2020. "Mask wars: China's exports of medical goods in times of COVID-19," Kiel Working Papers 2161, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Cruzatti C., John & Dreher, Axel & Matzat, Johannes, 2023. "Chinese aid and health at the country and local level," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    4. Sulin Sardoschau & Alexandra Jarotschkin, 2023. "Chinese Aid in Africa: Attitudes and Conflict," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 451, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    5. Xu, Yongfeng & Zhao, Xia, 2023. "Financial market risk, technology and natural resources nexus: Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    6. Pan, Kai & Cheng, Chengping & Kirikkaleli, Dervis & Genç, Sema Yılmaz, 2021. "Does financial risk and fiscal decentralization curb resources curse hypothesis in China? Analyzing the role of globalization," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    7. Iacoella, Francesco & Martorano, Bruno & Metzger, Laura & Sanfilippo, Marco, 2021. "Chinese official finance and political participation in Africa," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    8. Wellner, Lukas & Dreher, Axel & Fuchs, Andreas & Parks, Bradley & Strange, Austin M., 2022. "Can aid buy foreign public support? Evidence from Chinese development finance," Kiel Working Papers 2214, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Reiner Klingholz & Felix Braunsdorf & Christian Müller & Panu Poutvaara & Thieß Petersen & Claas Schneiderheinze & Rainer Thiele & Kai Gehring, 2019. "Wachsende Migrationsströme: Wie können die europäischen Länder die Fluchtursachen erfolgreich bekämpfen?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(23), pages 03-26, December.
    10. Mandon, Pierre & Woldemichael, Martha Tesfaye, 2023. "Has Chinese aid benefited recipient countries? Evidence from a meta-regression analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    11. Raphael J. Nawrotzki & Verena Gantner & Jana Balzer & Thomas Wencker & Sabine Brüntrup-Seidemann, 2022. "Strategic Allocation of Development Projects in Post-Conflict Regions: A Gender Perspective for Colombia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-26, February.
    12. Becker, Malte & Krüger, Finja & Heidland, Tobias, 2024. "What Drives Attitudes toward Immigrants in Sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence from Uganda and Senegal," IZA Discussion Papers 16734, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Eichenauer, Vera Z. & Fuchs, Andreas & Brückner, Lutz, 2021. "The effects of trade, aid, and investment on China's image in Latin America," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 483-498.
    14. Carrie B Dolan & Kaci Kennedy McDade, 2020. "Pulling the purse strings: Are there sectoral differences in political preferencing of Chinese aid to Africa?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, April.
    15. Adam, Antonis & Tsarsitalidou, Sofia, 2022. "The effect of international development association's (IDA) aid on conflict. A fuzzy regression discontinuity approach," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    16. Philip Akrofi Atitianti, 2023. "The impact of Chinese aid on political trust," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(2), pages 233-259, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dreher, Axel & Fuchs, Andreas & Hodler, Roland & Parks, Bradley C. & Raschky, Paul A. & Tierney, Michael J., 2021. "Is Favoritism a Threat to Chinese Aid Effectiveness? A Subnational Analysis of Chinese Development Projects," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    2. Cruzatti C., John & Dreher, Axel & Matzat, Johannes, 2023. "Chinese aid and health at the country and local level," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    3. Koppenberg, Maximilian & Mishra, Ashok K. & Hirsch, Stefan, 2023. "Food Aid and Violent Conflict: A Review of Literature," IZA Discussion Papers 16574, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Gehring, Kai & Langlotz, Sarah & Kienberger, Stefan, 2018. "Stimulant or depressant? Resource-related income shocks and conflict," Working Papers 0652, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    5. Mandon, Pierre & Woldemichael, Martha Tesfaye, 2023. "Has Chinese aid benefited recipient countries? Evidence from a meta-regression analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    6. Iacoella, Francesco & Martorano, Bruno & Metzger, Laura & Sanfilippo, Marco, 2021. "Chinese official finance and political participation in Africa," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    7. Korn, Tobias, 2023. "The Persistent Consequences of Civil Conflict: Evidence from a New Measure for Subnational Conflict Exposure," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-711, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    8. BenYishay, Ariel & DiLorenzo, Matthew & Dolan, Carrie, 2022. "The economic efficiency of aid targeting," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    9. Cervellati, Matteo & Esposito, Elena & Sunde, Uwe & Yuan, Song, 2022. "Malaria and Chinese economic activities in Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    10. Hoeffler, Anke & Sterck, Olivier, 2022. "Is Chinese aid different?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    11. Toke S. Aidt & Facundo Albornoz & Esther Hauk, 2021. "Foreign Influence and Domestic Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 426-487, June.
    12. Verme, Paolo & Schuettler, Kirsten, 2021. "The impact of forced displacement on host communities: A review of the empirical literature in economics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    13. Adam, Antonis & Tsarsitalidou, Sofia, 2022. "The effect of international development association's (IDA) aid on conflict. A fuzzy regression discontinuity approach," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    14. Axel Dreher & Sarah Langlotz, 2020. "Aid and growth: New evidence using an excludable instrument," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(3), pages 1162-1198, August.
    15. Toke S. Aidt & Facundo Albornoz & Esther Hauk, 2019. "Foreign in influence and domestic policy: A survey," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1928, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    16. Jung, Woojin, 2023. "Mapping community development aid: Spatial analysis in Myanmar," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    17. Silvia Marchesi & Tania Masi & Saumik Paul, 2021. "Project Aid and Firm Performance," Working Papers 479, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2021.
    18. Adam, Antonis & Tsarsitalidou, Sofia, 2020. "The effect of international development assistance (IDA) on conflict. A fuzzy regression discontinuity approach," MPRA Paper 101841, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Sulin Sardoschau & Alexandra Jarotschkin, 2023. "Chinese Aid in Africa: Attitudes and Conflict," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 451, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    20. Zürcher, Christoph, 2017. "What Do We (Not) Know About Development Aid and Violence? A Systematic Review," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 506-522.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Development models; Development aid; Stability; Conflict; Attitudes; World Bank; China; Africa; Geolocation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • P51 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Analysis of Economic Systems

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:158:y:2022:i:c:s0304387822000621. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/devec .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.