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Aid and Democracy Redux

This paper uses Freedom House ratings to assess the impact of foreign aid on democracy. We employ an interval regression to account for Freedom House's method of rating countries. A cross-sectional analysis examining the long run effect of aid on democracy in 122 countries between 1972 and 2011 finds a significant positive relationship that survives various tests for endogeneity. A short run annual panel analysis of 156 countries between 1985 and 2011 explores whether aid operates through leverage and conditionality. We present evidence that i) donors allocate aid in response to democratization and ii) recipient countries respond to this incentive for democratic reform. Our identification strategy relies on the reduced importance of democratization in the allocation of aid to geopolitically important countries.

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Paper provided by Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics in its series Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series with number 23.

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Date of creation: Jun 2013
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Handle: RePEc:vil:papers:23
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  1. Axel Dreher & Peter Nunnenkamp & Rainer Thiele, 2008. "Does Aid for Education Educate Children? Evidence from Panel Data," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 22(2), pages 291-314, April.
  2. A. Fielding, 1999. "Why use arbitrary points scores?: ordered categories in models of educational progress," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 162(3), pages 303-328.
  3. Morrison, Kevin M., 2009. "Oil, Nontax Revenue, and the Redistributional Foundations of Regime Stability," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 63(01), pages 107-138, January.
  4. Dietrich, Simone & Wright, Joseph, 2012. "Foreign Aid and Democratic Development in Africa," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  5. Simeon Djankov & Jose Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2008. "The curse of aid," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 169-194, September.
  6. José Cheibub & Jennifer Gandhi & James Vreeland, 2010. "Democracy and dictatorship revisited," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 67-101, April.
  7. Alberto Alesina & Arnaud Devleeschauwer & William Easterly & Sergio Kurlat & Romain Wacziarg, 2003. "Fractionalization," NBER Working Papers 9411, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Dollar, David & Alesina, Alberto, 2000. "Who Gives Foreign Aid to Whom and Why?," Scholarly Articles 4553020, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  9. Sarantis Kalyvitis & Irene Vlachaki, 2010. "Democratic Aid And The Democratization Of Recipients," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 28(2), pages 188-218, 04.
  10. Kevin Morrison, 2013. "Membership no longer has its privileges: The declining informal influence of Board members on IDA lending," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 291-312, June.
  11. Stewart, Mark B, 1982. "On Least Squares Estimation when the Dependent Variable is Grouped," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 207, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
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  13. David A Armstrong II, 2011. "Stability and change in the Freedom House political rights and civil liberties measures," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 48(5), pages 653-662, September.
  14. Jac C. Heckelman, 2010. "Aid and Democratization in the Transition Economies," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(4), pages 558-579, November.
  15. Minoiu, Camelia & Reddy, Sanjay G., 2010. "Development aid and economic growth: A positive long-run relation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 27-39, February.
  16. Axel Dreher & Andreas Fuchs, 2011. "Rogue Aid? The Determinants of China's Aid Allocation," CESifo Working Paper Series 3581, CESifo Group Munich.
  17. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
  18. Michael A. Clemens & Steven Radelet & Rikhil Bhavnani, 2004. "Counting chickens when they hatch: The short-term effect of aid on growth," International Finance 0407010, EconWPA.
  19. Kalyvitis, Sarantis & Vlachaki, Irene, 2012. "When does more aid imply less democracy? An empirical examination," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 132-146.
  20. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1994. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," NBER Technical Working Papers 0151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Giulia BETTIN & Riccardo LUCCHETTI, 2010. "Interval Regression Models with;Endogenous Explanatory Variables," Working Papers 339, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  22. Bermeo, Sarah Blodgett, 2011. "Foreign Aid and Regime Change: A Role for Donor Intent," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 2021-2031.
  23. David Roodman, 2006. "How to Do xtabond2: An Introduction to "Difference" and "System" GMM in Stata," Working Papers 103, Center for Global Development.
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  25. Chesher, Andrew & Irish, Margaret, 1987. "Residual analysis in the grouped and censored normal linear model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 33-61.
  26. Alexander Libman & Anastassia Obydenkova, 2013. "Informal governance and participation in non-democratic international organizations," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 221-243, June.
  27. Nabamita Dutta & Peter T. Leeson & Claudia R. Williamson, 2013. "The Amplification Effect: Foreign Aid's Impact on Political Institutions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(2), pages 208-228, 05.
  28. Goldsmith, Arthur A., 2001. "Foreign Aid and Statehood in Africa," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 55(01), pages 123-148, December.
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  30. Birchler, Kassandra & Michaelowa, Katharina, 2013. "Making aid work for education in developing countries: An analysis of aid effectiveness for primary education coverage and quality," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  31. Michael A. Clemens & Steven Radelet & Rikhil R. Bhavnani & Samuel Bazzi, 2012. "Counting Chickens when they Hatch: Timing and the Effects of Aid on Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(561), pages 590-617, 06.
  32. World Bank, 2012. "World Development Indicators 2012," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6014, September.
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