IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/awi/wpaper/0575.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Geopolitics, Aid and Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Dreher, Axel
  • Eichenauer, Vera
  • Gehring, Kai

Abstract

We investigate the effects of short-term political motivations on the effectiveness of foreign aid. Specifically, we test whether the effect of aid on economic growth is reduced by the share of years a country has served on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) in the period the aid has been committed, which provides quasi-random variation in aid. Our results show that the relationship of aid with growth is significantly lower when aid has been committed during a country’s tenure on the UNSC. We derive two conclusions from this. First, short-term political favoritism reduces growth. Second, political interest variables are inadequate as instruments for overall aid, raising doubts about a large number of results in the aid effectiveness literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Dreher, Axel & Eichenauer, Vera & Gehring, Kai, 2014. "Geopolitics, Aid and Growth," Working Papers 0575, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:awi:wpaper:0575
    Note: This paper is part of http://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/view/schriftenreihen/sr-3.html
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn=urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-175459
    File Function: Frontdoor page on HeiDOK
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/17545/1/Dreher_Eichenauer_Gehring_2014_dp575-1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eric Werker & Faisal Z. Ahmed & Charles Cohen, 2009. "How Is Foreign Aid Spent? Evidence from a Natural Experiment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 225-244, July.
    2. Nathan Nunn & Nancy Qian, 2012. "Aiding Conflict: The Impact of U.S. Food Aid on Civil War," NBER Working Papers 17794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Robert K. Fleck & Christopher Kilby, 2006. "How Do Political Changes Influence US Bilateral Aid Allocations? Evidence from Panel Data," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 210-223, May.
    4. Axel Dreher & Peter Nunnenkamp & Maya Schmaljohann, 2015. "The Allocation of German Aid: Self-interest and Government Ideology," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 160-184, March.
    5. Alesina, Alberto & Dollar, David, 2000. "Who Gives Foreign Aid to Whom and Why?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 33-63, March.
    6. Kilby, Christopher & Dreher, Axel, 2010. "The impact of aid on growth revisited: Do donor motives matter?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 338-340, June.
    7. Axel Dreher & Matthew Gould & Matthew Rablen & James Vreeland, 2014. "The determinants of election to the United Nations Security Council," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 158(1), pages 51-83, January.
    8. William Easterly & Ross Levine, 1997. "Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(4), pages 1203-1250.
    9. Trude Midtgaard & Krishna Vadlamannati & Indra Soysa, 2014. "Does the IMF cause civil war? A comment," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 107-124, March.
    10. Axel Dreher & Stephan Klasen & James Raymond Vreeland & Eric Werker, 2013. "The Costs of Favoritism: Is Politically Driven Aid Less Effective?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(1), pages 157-191.
    11. Kevin Morrison, 2013. "Membership no longer has its privileges: The declining informal influence of Board members on IDA lending," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 291-312, June.
    12. Vreeland,James Raymond & Dreher,Axel, 2014. "The Political Economy of the United Nations Security Council," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521518413, September.
    13. David Dollar & Craig Burnside, 2000. "Aid, Policies, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 847-868, September.
    14. Hristos Doucouliagos & Martin Paldam, 2009. "The Aid Effectiveness Literature: The Sad Results Of 40 Years Of Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 433-461, July.
    15. Minoiu, Camelia & Reddy, Sanjay G., 2010. "Development aid and economic growth: A positive long-run relation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 27-39, February.
    16. Aurore Gary & Mathilde Maurel, 2013. "The effect of donors' policy coherence on growth," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13046, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    17. Axel Dreher & Jan-Egbert Sturm & James Raymond Vreeland, 2010. "Does Membership on the UN Security Council Influence IMF Conditionality?," KOF Working papers 10-262, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    18. Bruno S. Frey & Paolo Pamini & Lasse Steiner, 2011. "What Determines The World Heritage List? An Econometric Analysis," CREMA Working Paper Series 2011-01, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    19. Christian Bjørnskov, 2019. "Types of Foreign Aid," Springer Books, in: Nabamita Dutta & Claudia R. Williamson (ed.), Lessons on Foreign Aid and Economic Development, chapter 0, pages 33-61, Springer.
    20. Dunning, Thad, 2004. "Conditioning the Effects of Aid: Cold War Politics, Donor Credibility, and Democracy in Africa," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 409-423, April.
    21. World Bank, 2012. "World Development Indicators 2012," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6014.
    22. Omar S. Bashir & Darren J. Lim, 2013. "Misplaced Blame," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 57(3), pages 509-523, June.
    23. Kilby, Christopher, 2013. "The political economy of project preparation: An empirical analysis of World Bank projects," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 211-225.
    24. Barry O'neill, 1996. "Power and Satisfaction in the United Nations Security Council," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 40(2), pages 219-237, June.
    25. Daron Acemoglu, 2010. "Theory, General Equilibrium, and Political Economy in Development Economics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(3), pages 17-32, Summer.
    26. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
    27. William Hauk & Romain Wacziarg, 2009. "A Monte Carlo study of growth regressions," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 103-147, June.
    28. David Roodman, 2007. "The Anarchy of Numbers: Aid, Development, and Cross-Country Empirics," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 21(2), pages 255-277, May.
    29. Derek Headey, 2008. "Geopolitics and the effect of foreign aid on economic growth: 1970-2001," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 161-180.
    30. Romain Wacziarg & Karen Horn Welch, 2008. "Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 22(2), pages 187-231, June.
    31. Barry P. Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2003. "The Empirics of Growth: An Update," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 113-206.
    32. Stone, Randall W., 2004. "The Political Economy of IMF Lending in Africa," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 98(4), pages 577-591, November.
    33. Nizalova Olena Y. & Murtazashvili Irina, 2016. "Exogenous Treatment and Endogenous Factors: Vanishing of Omitted Variable Bias on the Interaction Term," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 71-77, January.
    34. Marcus Drometer, 2019. "Institutional quality and foreign aid," ifo Working Paper Series 287, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    35. repec:wbk:wbpubs:12425 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Craig Volden & Clifford J. Carrubba, 2004. "The Formation of Oversized Coalitions in Parliamentary Democracies," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(3), pages 521-537, July.
    37. Berthelemy, Jean-Claude & Tichit, Ariane, 2004. "Bilateral donors' aid allocation decisions--a three-dimensional panel analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 253-274.
    38. Daniel Berger & William Easterly & Nathan Nunn & Shanker Satyanath, 2013. "Commercial Imperialism? Political Influence and Trade during the Cold War," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(2), pages 863-896, April.
    39. Morgenthau, Hans, 1962. "A Political Theory of Foreign Aid," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(2), pages 301-309, June.
    40. Ilyana Kuziemko & Eric Werker, 2006. "How Much Is a Seat on the Security Council Worth? Foreign Aid and Bribery at the United Nations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(5), pages 905-930, October.
    41. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita & Alastair Smith, 2010. "The Pernicious Consequences of UN Security Council Membership," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(5), pages 667-686, October.
    42. Axel Dreher & Nathan Jensen, 2003. "Independent Actor or Agent? An Empirical Analysis of the impact of US interests on IMF Conditions," International Finance 0310004, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Jan 2004.
    43. Christensen, Zachary & Homer, Dustin & Nielson, Daniel L., 2011. "Dodging Adverse Selection: How Donor Type and Governance Condition Aid’s Effects on School Enrollment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 2044-2053.
    44. Voeten, Erik, 2005. "The Political Origins of the UN Security Council's Ability to Legitimize the Use of Force," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 59(3), pages 527-557, July.
    45. Ellyn Creasey & Ahmed S. Rahman & Katherine A. Smith, 2015. "Does Nation Building Spur Economic Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(1), pages 660-680, January.
    46. Dreher, Axel & Sturm, Jan-Egbert & Vreeland, James Raymond, 2009. "Development aid and international politics: Does membership on the UN Security Council influence World Bank decisions?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 1-18, January.
    47. Angrist, Joshua D. & Krueger, Alan B., 1999. "Empirical strategies in labor economics," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 23, pages 1277-1366, Elsevier.
    48. Michael A. Clemens & Steven Radelet & Rikhil R. Bhavnani & Samuel Bazzi, 2012. "Counting Chickens when they Hatch: Timing and the Effects of Aid on Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(561), pages 590-617, June.
    49. Michael Clemens & Samuel Bazzi, 2009. "Blunt Instruments: On Establishing the Causes of Economic Growth," Working Papers 171, Center for Global Development.
    50. Anja Breitwieser & Katharina Wick, 2013. "What We Miss By Missing Data: Aid Effectiveness Revisited," Vienna Economics Papers vie1302, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    51. Stone, Randall W., 2008. "The Scope of IMF Conditionality," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(4), pages 589-620, October.
    52. Michael Faye & Paul Niehaus, 2012. "Political Aid Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3516-3530, December.
    53. Tito Cordella & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 2007. "Budget Support Versus Project Aid: A Theoretical Appraisal," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(523), pages 1260-1279, October.
    54. Bruno Frey & Paolo Pamini & Lasse Steiner, 2013. "Explaining the World Heritage List: an empirical study," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 60(1), pages 1-19, March.
    55. Brautigam, Deborah A & Knack, Stephen, 2004. "Foreign Aid, Institutions, and Governance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(2), pages 255-285, January.
    56. World Bank, 2007. "World Development Indicators 2007," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 8150.
    57. Matthew Odedokun, 2003. "Analysis of Deviations and Delays in Aid Disbursements," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2003-26, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    58. José Cheibub & Jennifer Gandhi & James Vreeland, 2010. "Democracy and dictatorship revisited," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 67-101, April.
    59. Caprio, Gerard (ed.), 2012. "Handbook of Safeguarding Global Financial Stability," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780123978752.
    60. Madeleine Hosli & Rebecca Moody & Bryan O’Donovan & Serguei Kaniovski & Anna Little, 2011. "Squaring the circle? Collective and distributive effects of United Nations Security Council reform," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 163-187, July.
    61. World Bank, 2005. "World Development Indicators 2005," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 12426.
    62. Matthew Odedokun, 2003. "Analysis Of Deviations And Delays In Aid Disbursements," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 28(1), pages 137-169, June.
    63. Kilby, Christopher, 2009. "The political economy of conditionality: An empirical analysis of World Bank loan disbursements," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 51-61, May.
    64. Patrick Bayer & Christopher Marcoux & Johannes Urpelainen, 2014. "Choosing international organizations: When do states and the World Bank collaborate on environmental projects?," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 413-440, December.
    65. Bruno S. Frey & Lasse Steiner, 2013. "World Heritage List," Chapters, in: Ilde Rizzo & Anna Mignosa (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Cultural Heritage, chapter 8, pages i-i, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    66. Elizabeth Bland & Christopher Kilby, 2012. "Informal influence in the Inter-American Development Bank," Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series 22, Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics.
    67. Bermeo, Sarah Blodgett, 2011. "Foreign Aid and Regime Change: A Role for Donor Intent," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 2021-2031.
    68. Samuel Bazzi & Michael A. Clemens, 2013. "Blunt Instruments: Avoiding Common Pitfalls in Identifying the Causes of Economic Growth," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 152-186, April.
    69. Breitwieser, Anja & Wick, Katharina, 2016. "What We Miss By Missing Data: Aid Effectiveness Revisited," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 554-571.
    70. Voeten, Erik, 2001. "Outside Options and the Logic of Security Council Action," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 95(4), pages 845-858, December.
    71. Eric Werker, 2012. "The Political Economy of Bilateral Foreign Aid," Harvard Business School Working Papers 13-026, Harvard Business School.
    72. Bobba, Matteo & Powell, Andrew, 2007. "Aid Effectiveness: Politics Matters," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1598, Inter-American Development Bank.
    73. Christopher Kilby, 2012. "Assessing the contribution of donor agencies to aid effectiveness: The impact of World Bank preparation on project outcomes," Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series 20, Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics.
    74. Ashwin Kaja & Eric Werker, 2010. "Corporate Governance at the World Bank and the Dilemma of Global Governance," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 24(2), pages 171-198, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Axel Dreher & Vera Z Eichenauer & Kai Gehring, 2018. "Geopolitics, Aid, and Growth: The Impact of UN Security Council Membership on the Effectiveness of Aid," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 32(2), pages 268-286.
    2. Dreher, Axel & Minasyan, Anna & Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2013. "Government ideology in donor and recipient countries: Does political proximity matter for the effectiveness of aid?," Kiel Working Papers 1870, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Axel Dreher & Stephan Klasen & James Raymond Vreeland & Eric Werker, 2013. "The Costs of Favoritism: Is Politically Driven Aid Less Effective?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(1), pages 157-191.
    4. Dreher, Axel & Lang, Valentin & Reinsberg, Bernhard, 2024. "Aid effectiveness and donor motives," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    5. Axel Dreher & Sarah Langlotz, 2020. "Aid and growth: New evidence using an excludable instrument," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(3), pages 1162-1198, August.
    6. Kersting, Erasmus K. & Kilby, Christopher, 2016. "With a little help from my friends: Global electioneering and World Bank lending," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 153-165.
    7. repec:got:cegedp:97 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Axel Dreher & Valentin F. Lang & Sebastian Ziaja, 2017. "Foreign Aid in Areas of Limited Statehood," CESifo Working Paper Series 6340, CESifo.
    9. Dreher, Axel & Minasyan, Anna & Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2015. "Government ideology in donor and recipient countries: Does ideological proximity matter for the effectiveness of aid?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 80-92.
    10. Dutta, Nabamita & Williamson, Claudia R., 2016. "Aiding economic freedom: Exploring the role of political institutions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 45(S), pages 24-38.
    11. Fuchs, Andreas & Dreher, Axel & Hodler, Roland & Parks, Bradley C. & Raschky, Paul, 2015. "Aid on Demand: African Leaders and the Geography of China s Foreign Assistance," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112838, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. James Vreeland, 2011. "Foreign aid and global governance: Buying Bretton Woods – the Swiss-bloc case," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 369-391, September.
    13. Angelika J. Budjan & Andreas Fuchs, 2021. "Democracy and Aid Donorship," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 217-238, November.
    14. Axel Dreher & Matthew Gould & Matthew Rablen & James Vreeland, 2014. "The determinants of election to the United Nations Security Council," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 158(1), pages 51-83, January.
    15. Reinsberg, Bernhard, 2015. "Foreign Aid Responses to Political Liberalization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 46-61.
    16. Erasmus Kersting & Christopher Kilby, 2019. "The rise of supplemental lending at the World Bank," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1655-1698, November.
    17. Kilby, Christopher, 2015. "Assessing the impact of World Bank preparation on project outcomes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 111-123.
    18. Axel Dreher & James Raymond Vreeland, 2011. "Buying Votes and International Organizations," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 78, Courant Research Centre PEG.
    19. Tierney, Michael J. & Nielson, Daniel L. & Hawkins, Darren G. & Roberts, J. Timmons & Findley, Michael G. & Powers, Ryan M. & Parks, Bradley & Wilson, Sven E. & Hicks, Robert L., 2011. "More Dollars than Sense: Refining Our Knowledge of Development Finance Using AidData," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 1891-1906.
    20. Broich, Tobias, 2017. "Do authoritarian regimes receive more Chinese development finance than democratic ones? Empirical evidence for Africa," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 180-207.
    21. Juergen Bitzer & Erkan Goeren, 2018. "Foreign Aid and Subnational Development: A Grid Cell Analysis," Working Papers V-407-18, University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2018.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    aid effectiveness; economic growth; politics and aid; United Nations Security Council membership; political instruments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:awi:wpaper:0575. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gabi Rauscher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/awheide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.