IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

With a Little Help from My Friends: Global Electioneering and World Bank Lending

This paper uses monthly World Bank project-level data to assess the impact of upcoming elections in recipient countries on loan activity. We analyze the extent to which geopolitics influence both the timing and size of loan commitments and disbursements. While developing countries have better access to new World Bank loans when they vote with the U.S. in the United Nations General Assembly, we do not find that the political cycle plays a role in the timing or size of new loans. For already approved loans, disbursement is faster when countries are aligned with the U.S. in the UN. Furthermore, disbursement accelerates prior to elections if the country is geopolitically aligned with the U.S. but decelerates if the country is not. These disbursement patterns are consistent with global electioneering that serves U.S. foreign policy interests.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://repec.library.villanova.edu/workingpapers/VSBEcon25.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics in its series Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series with number 25.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Oct 2014
Handle: RePEc:vil:papers:25
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.villanova.edu/business/facultyareas/economics/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Dreher, Axel & Gassebner, Martin, 2012. "Do IMF and World Bank Programs Induce Government Crises? An Empirical Analysis," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 66(02), pages 329-358, April.
  2. Joao Pedro Azevedo, 2011. "WBOPENDATA: Stata module to access World Bank databases," Statistical Software Components S457234, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 10 Feb 2016.
  3. Axel Dreher & Stephan Klasen & James Raymond Vreeland & Eric Werker, 2013. "The Costs of Favoritism: Is Politically Driven Aid Less Effective?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(1), pages 157-191.
  4. Dreher, Axel & Sturm, Jan-Egbert & Vreeland, James Raymond, 2009. "Development aid and international politics: Does membership on the UN Security Council influence World Bank decisions?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 1-18, January.
  5. Robert K. Fleck & Christopher Kilby, 2006. "World Bank Independence: A Model and Statistical Analysis of US Influence," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 224-240, May.
  6. Hannes Öhler & Peter Nunnenkamp, 2014. "Needs-Based Targeting or Favoritism? The Regional Allocation of Multilateral Aid within Recipient Countries," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 420-446, August.
  7. World Bank, 2014. "World Development Indicators 2014," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 18237, April.
  8. Arthur Foch, 2013. "Explaining the G7 and G10's influence on World Bank decisions: The role of formal and informal rules of governance," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13035, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  9. Bermeo, Sarah Blodgett, 2011. "Foreign Aid and Regime Change: A Role for Donor Intent," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 2021-2031.
  10. Fuchs, Andreas & Dreher, Axel & Hodler, Roland & Parks, Bradley C. & Raschky, Paul, 2015. "Aid on Demand: African Leaders and the Geography of China s Foreign Assistance," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112838, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  11. Ito, Takatoshi, 1990. "The timing of elections and political business cycles in Japan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 135-156.
  12. Harrigan, Jane & Wang, Chengang & El-Said, Hamed, 2006. "The economic and political determinants of IMF and world bank lending in the Middle East and North Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 247-270, February.
  13. Przeworski, Adam & Vreeland, James Raymond, 2000. "The effect of IMF programs on economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 385-421, August.
  14. Frey, Bruno S. & Schneider, Friedrich, 1986. "Competing models of international lending activity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 225-245, March.
  15. Hyde, Susan D. & Marinov, Nikolay, 2012. "Which Elections Can Be Lost?," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(02), pages 191-210, March.
  16. Stephen Knack & F. Rogers & Jac Heckelman, 2012. "Crossing the threshold: A positive analysis of IBRD graduation policy," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 145-176, June.
  17. Minoiu, Camelia & Reddy, Sanjay G., 2010. "Development aid and economic growth: A positive long-run relation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 27-39, February.
  18. Dreher, Axel, 2006. "IMF and economic growth: The effects of programs, loans, and compliance with conditionality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 769-788, May.
  19. Derek Headey, 2008. "Geopolitics and the effect of foreign aid on economic growth: 1970-2001," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 161-180.
  20. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2005. "IMF programs: Who is chosen and what are the effects?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1245-1269, October.
  21. Gaoussou Diarra, 2011. "Aid unpredictability and absorptive capacity: analyzing disbursement delays in Africa," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(1), pages 1004-1017.
  22. Thomas Barnebeck Andersen & Henrik Hansen & Thomas Markussen, 2006. "US politics and World Bank IDA-lending," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(5), pages 772-794.
  23. Matteo Bobba & Andrew Powell, 2007. "Aid and Growth: Politics Matters," Research Department Publications 4511, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  24. Aidt, Toke & Albornoz, Facundo & Gassebner, Martin, 2010. "The Golden Halo and Political Transitions," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Hannover 2010 48, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  25. Kilby, Christopher & Dreher, Axel, 2010. "The impact of aid on growth revisited: Do donor motives matter?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 338-340, June.
  26. Frank-Oliver Aldenhoff, 2007. "Are economic forecasts of the International Monetary Fund politically biased? A public choice analysis," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 239-260, September.
  27. Kilby, Christopher, 2013. "The political economy of project preparation: An empirical analysis of World Bank projects," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 211-225.
  28. Rickard, Stephanie J. & Caraway, Teri L., 2014. "International Negotiations in the Shadow of National Elections," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(03), pages 701-720, June.
  29. Arthur Foch, 2013. "Explaining the G7 and G10's influence on World Bank decisions: The role of formal and informal rules of governance," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00824678, HAL.
  30. Axel Dreher & Vera Eichenauer & Kai Gehring, 2013. "Geopolitics, Aid and Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 4299, CESifo Group Munich.
  31. Hernandez, Diego, 2013. "Does Inclusion Guarantee Institutional Autonomy? The Case of the Inter-American Development Bank," Working Papers 0541, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  32. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita & Alastair Smith, 2007. "Foreign Aid and Policy Concessions," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 51(2), pages 251-284, April.
  33. Axel Dreher & Roland Vaubel, 2004. "Do IMF and IBRD Cause Moral Hazard and Political Business Cycles? Evidence from Panel Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 5-22, January.
  34. Kilby, Christopher, 2009. "The political economy of conditionality: An empirical analysis of World Bank loan disbursements," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 51-61, May.
  35. Briggs, Ryan C., 2014. "Aiding and Abetting: Project Aid and Ethnic Politics in Kenya," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 194-205.
  36. Nizalova Olena Y. & Murtazashvili Irina, 2016. "Exogenous Treatment and Endogenous Factors: Vanishing of Omitted Variable Bias on the Interaction Term," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 71-77, January.
  37. Ilyana Kuziemko & Eric Werker, 2006. "How Much Is a Seat on the Security Council Worth? Foreign Aid and Bribery at the United Nations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(5), pages 905-930, October.
  38. Axel Dreher, 2003. "The influence of elections on IMF programme interruptions," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(6), pages 101-120.
  39. Andersen, Thomas Barnebeck & Harr, Thomas & Tarp, Finn, 2006. "On US politics and IMF lending," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1843-1862, October.
  40. Roland Hodler & Paul A. Raschky, 2014. "Regional Favoritism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 129(2), pages 995-1033.
  41. Christopher Kilby, 2013. "An Empirical Assessment of Informal Influence in the World Bank," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(2), pages 431-464.
  42. Kilby, Christopher, 2015. "Assessing the impact of World Bank preparation on project outcomes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 111-123.
  43. Blank, Rebecca M, 1991. "The Effects of Double-Blind versus Single-Blind Reviewing: Experimental Evidence from The American Economic Review," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1041-1067, December.
  44. Axel Dreher & Silvia Marchesi & James Vreeland, 2008. "The political economy of IMF forecasts," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 145-171, October.
  45. Michael Faye & Paul Niehaus, 2012. "Political Aid Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3516-3530, December.
  46. José Cheibub & Jennifer Gandhi & James Vreeland, 2010. "Democracy and dictatorship revisited," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 67-101, April.
  47. Dreher, Axel & Jensen, Nathan M, 2007. "Independent Actor or Agent? An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of U.S. Interests on International Monetary Fund Conditions," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 50(1), pages 105-124, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vil:papers:25. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher Kilby)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.