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The Golden Hello and Political Transitions

We analyze the influence of IMF and World Bank programs on political regime transitions. We develop an extended version of Acemoglu and Robinson's [American Economic Review 91, 2001] model of political transitions to show how the anticipation of new loans from international financial institutions can trigger political transitions which would not otherwise have taken place. We test this unexplored implication of the theory empirically. We find in a world sample from 1970 to 2002 that the anticipation of receiving new programs immediately after a political regime transition increases the probability of a transition from autocracy to democracy and reduces the probability of democratic survival.

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Paper provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its series KOF Working papers with number 12-316.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:12-316
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  1. Axel Dreher & Martin Gassebner, 2008. "Do IMF and World Bank programs induce government crises? An empirical analysis," KOF Working papers 08-200, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  2. Alberto Alesina & David Dollar, 1998. "Who Gives Foreign Aid to Whom and Why?," NBER Working Papers 6612, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Axel Dreher & Matthew Gould & Matthew Rablen & James Raymond Vreeland, 2012. "The Determinants of Election to the United Nations Security Council," CESifo Working Paper Series 3902, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Toke S. Aidt & Uk Hwang, 2008. "On the Internalization of Cross-National Externalities through Political Markets: The Case of Labour Standards," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 164(3), pages 509-533, September.
  5. Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2009. "Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity," Working Papers 2009-38, FEDEA.
  6. Paul J. Burke & Andrew Leigh, 2010. "Do output contractions trigger democratic change?," CEPR Discussion Papers 633, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
  7. Congleton, Roger D., 2007. "From royal to parliamentary rule without revolution: The economics of constitutional exchange within divided governments," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 261-284, June.
  8. Martin Gassebner & Michael J. Lamla & James Raymond Vreeland, 2009. "Extreme Bounds of Democracy," KOF Working papers 09-224, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  9. Silvia Marchesi & Laura Sabani, 2005. "IMF concern for reputation and conditional lending failure: theory and empirics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24648, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  10. Berger, Daniel & Easterly, William & Nunn, Nathan & Satyanath, Shanker, 2013. "Commercial Imperialism? Political Influence and Trade during the Cold War," Scholarly Articles 11986334, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  11. Kalyvitis, Sarantis & Vlachaki, Irene, 2012. "When does more aid imply less democracy? An empirical examination," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 132-146.
  12. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I just ran four million regressions," Economics Working Papers 201, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  13. Aidt, Toke S. & Albornoz, Facundo, 2011. "Political regimes and foreign intervention," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 192-201, March.
  14. Daron Acemoglu & James A. Robinson, 2000. "Why Did The West Extend The Franchise? Democracy, Inequality, And Growth In Historical Perspective," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(4), pages 1167-1199, November.
  15. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521855266 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Timur Kuran, 1989. "Sparks and prairie fires: A theory of unanticipated political revolution," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 41-74, April.
  17. Roberto Bonfatti, 2011. "An Economic Theory of Foreign Interventions and Regime Change," Economics Series Working Papers 549, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  18. Mark Gradstein, 2007. "Inequality, democracy and the protection of property rights," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(516), pages 252-269, 01.
  19. Dreher, Axel & Sturm, Jan-Egbert & Vreeland, James Raymond, 2009. "Global horse trading: IMF loans for votes in the United Nations Security Council," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 742-757, October.
  20. Acemoglu, Daron & Robinson, James A, 1999. "A Theory of Political Transitions," CEPR Discussion Papers 2277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. William Easterly & Shanker Satyanath & Daniel Berger, 2008. "Superpower Interventions and their Consequences for Democracy: An Empirical Inquiry," NBER Working Papers 13992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
  23. Axel Dreher & Roland Vaubel, 2004. "Do IMF and IBRD Cause Moral Hazard and Political Business Cycles? Evidence from Panel Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 5-22, January.
  24. Christopher J. Ellis & John Fender, 2011. "Information Cascades and Revolutionary Regime Transitions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(553), pages 763-792, 06.
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