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Democratization and the Conditional Dynamics of Income Distribution

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  • DORSCH, MICHAEL T.
  • MAAREK, PAUL

Abstract

Despite strong theoretical reasons to expect that democratization equalizes income distributions, existing empirical studies do not find a statistically significant effect of democratization on measures of income inequality. This paper starts from the simple observation that autocracies are heterogeneous and govern quite extreme distributional outcomes (also egalitarian). Democratization may drive extreme income distributions to a “middle ground.” We thus examine the extent to which initial inequality levels determine the path of distributional dynamics following democratization. Using fixed-effects and instrumental variable regressions, we demonstrate that egalitarian autocracies become more unequal following democratization, whereas democratization has an equalizing effect in highly unequal autocracies. The effect appears to be driven by changes in gross (market) inequality, suggesting that democratization has led, on average, to redistribution of market opportunities, rather than to direct fiscal redistribution. We then investigate which kinds of (heterogeneous) reforms are at work following democratizations that may rationalize our findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Dorsch, Michael T. & Maarek, Paul, 2019. "Democratization and the Conditional Dynamics of Income Distribution," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 113(2), pages 385-404, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:113:y:2019:i:02:p:385-404_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke & Timo Wochner, 2020. "Structural Reforms and Income Inequality: Who Benefits From Market-Oriented Reforms?," EconPol Policy Reports 18, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    2. Sima, Di & Huang, Fali, 2023. "Is democracy good for growth? — Development at political transition time matters," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Valentin Lang, 2021. "The economics of the democratic deficit: The effect of IMF programs on inequality," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 599-623, July.
    4. Dörffel, Christoph & Freytag, Andreas, 2023. "The poverty effect of democratization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    5. Deniz, Pinar & Stengos, Thanasis, 2025. "Heterogeneity of institutions and model uncertainty in the income inequality nexus," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    6. Berggren, Niclas & Bjørnskov, Christian, 2020. "Corruption, judicial accountability and inequality: Unfair procedures may benefit the worst-off," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 341-354.
    7. Mergele, Lukas & Hennicke, Moritz & Lubczyk, Moritz, 2025. "The big sell: Privatizing East Germany’s economy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    8. Gründler, Klaus & Krieger, Tommy, 2022. "Should we care (more) about data aggregation?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    9. Bahamonde, Hector & Trasberg, Mart, 2021. "Inclusive institutions, unequal outcomes: Democracy, state capacity, and income inequality," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    10. Tommy Krieger, 2022. "Democracy and the quality of economic institutions: theory and evidence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 192(3), pages 357-376, September.
    11. Klaus Gründler & Tommy Krieger, 2021. "Using Machine Learning for Measuring Democracy: An Update," CESifo Working Paper Series 8903, CESifo.
    12. Anderson, Edward, 2022. "The correlates of declining income inequality among emerging and developing economies during the 2000s," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    13. Toke S. Aidt & Stanley L. Winer & Peng Zhang, 2022. "Franchise extension and fiscal structure in the UK 1820–1913: a new test of the Redistribution Hypothesis," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 16(3), pages 547-574, September.
    14. Dorsch, Michael T. & Maarek, Paul, 2020. "Economic downturns, inequality, and democratic improvements," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    15. Zaremba, Adam & Kizys, Renatas & Tzouvanas, Panagiotis & Aharon, David Y. & Demir, Ender, 2021. "The quest for multidimensional financial immunity to the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from international stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    16. Krieger, Tommy, 2019. "Democracy and institutional quality: Theory and Evidence," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203507, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. Krieger, Tommy, 2022. "Democracy and the quality of economic institutions: Theory and evidence," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-032, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    18. Rédha Chaba & Michael T Dorsch & Victor Hiller & Paul Maarek, 2023. "Demographic and Political Transitions," Working Papers hal-04039762, HAL.
    19. Gründler, Klaus & Krieger, Tommy, 2021. "Using Machine Learning for measuring democracy: A practitioners guide and a new updated dataset for 186 countries from 1919 to 2019," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    20. Wong, Mathew Y.H., 2021. "Democracy, hybrid regimes, and inequality: The divergent effects of contestation and inclusiveness," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    21. Christoph Doerffel, 2021. "The Poverty Effect of Democratization: Disaggregating Democratic Institutions," Jena Economics Research Papers 2021-018, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    22. Krieger, Tommy, 2022. "Measuring democracy," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-063, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    23. Nobel Prize Committee, 2024. "Scientific Background to the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2024," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2024-2, Nobel Prize Committee.

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