Civil War and Foreign Influence
We study a symmetric information bargaining model of civil war where a third (foreign) party can aﬀect the probabilities of winning the conﬂict and the size of the post conﬂict spoils. We show that the possible alliance with a third party makes peaceful agreements diﬃcult to reach and might lead to new commitment problems that trigger war. Also, we argue that the foreign party is likely t oinduce persistent informational asymmetries which might explain long lasting civil wars. We explore both political and economic incentives for a third party to intervene. The explicit consideration of political incentives leads to two predictions that allow for identifying the inﬂuence of foreign intervention on civil war incidence. Both predictions are conﬁrmed for the case of the U.S. as a potential intervening nation: (i) civil wars around the world are more likely under Republican governments and (ii) the probability of civil wars decreases with U.S. presidential approval rates.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +34 93 542-1222
Fax: +34 93 542-1223
Web page: http://www.barcelonagse.euEmail:
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Toke S. Aidt & Facundo Albornoz & Martin Gassebner, 2012.
"The Golden Hello and Political Transitions,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
3957, CESifo Group Munich.
- Toke, A.S. & Albornoz, F. & Gassebner, M., 2012. "The Golden Hello and Political Transitions," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1241, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Martin Gassebner & Facundo Albornoz & Toke S. Aidt, 2012. "The Golden Hello and Political Transitions," KOF Working papers 12-316, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Aidt, Toke & Albornoz, Facundo & Gassebner, Martin, 2010. "The Golden Halo and Political Transitions," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Hannover 2010 48, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
- Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2007.
"International commodity prices, growth and the outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa,"
Economics Working Papers
1053, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Aug 2009.
- Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2010. "International Commodity Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 519-534, 05.
- Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2009. "International Commodity Prices, Growth, and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 2009-37, FEDEA.
- Oeindrila Dube & Juan F. Vargas, 2013. "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 1384-1421.
- Sylvain Chassang & Gerard Padró i Miquel, 2010.
"Conflict and Deterrence under Strategic Risk,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 125(4), pages 1821-1858, November.
- Antras, Pol & Padro i Miquel, Gerard, 2009.
"Foreign Influence and Welfare,"
3374523, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Blattman, Christopher & Miguel, Edward, 2009.
Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series
qt90n356hs, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Arindrajit Dube & Ethan Kaplan & Suresh Naidu, 2011.
"Coups, Corporations, and Classified Information,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 126(3), pages 1375-1409.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:480. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bruno Guallar)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.