Civil War and Foreign Influence
We study a symmetric information bargaining model of civil war where a third (foreign) party can affect the probabilities of winning the conflict and the size of the post conflict spoils. We show that the possible alliance with a third party makes peaceful agreements difficult to reach and might lead to new commitment problems that trigger war. Also, we argue that the foreign party is likely t oinduce persistent informational asymmetries which might explain long lasting civil wars. We explore both political and economic incentives for a third party to intervene. The explicit consideration of political incentives leads to two predictions that allow for identifying the influence of foreign intervention on civil war incidence. Both predictions are confirmed for the case of the U.S. as a potential intervening nation: (i) civil wars around the world are more likely under Republican governments and (ii) the probability of civil wars decreases with U.S. presidential approval rates.
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- Aidt, Toke & Albornoz, Facundo & Gassebner, Martin, 2010.
"The Golden Halo and Political Transitions,"
Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Hannover 2010
48, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
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- Martin Gassebner & Facundo Albornoz & Toke S. Aidt, 2012. "The Golden Hello and Political Transitions," KOF Working papers 12-316, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
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- Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2010.
"International Commodity Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 519-534, 05.
- Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2009. "International Commodity Prices, Growth, and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 2009-37, FEDEA.
- Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2007. "International commodity prices, growth and the outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economics Working Papers 1053, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Aug 2009.
- Arindrajit Dube & Ethan Kaplan & Suresh Naidu, 2011.
"Coups, Corporations, and Classified Information,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 126(3), pages 1375-1409.
- Pol Antràs & Gerard Padró i Miquel, 2008.
"Foreign Influence and Welfare,"
NBER Working Papers
14129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Oeindrila Dube & Juan F. Vargas, 2013. "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 1384-1421.
- repec:oup:qjecon:v:125:y:2010:i:4:p:1821-1858 is not listed on IDEAS
- Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010.
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
- Blattman, Christopher & Miguel, Edward, 2009. "Civil War," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt90n356hs, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2009. "Civil War," NBER Working Papers 14801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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