Out of the ashes, into the fire: The consequences of U.S. weapons sales for political violence

We examine the effect of U.S. weapons purchases on political violence in 191 countries during the period 1970–2008. Our identification strategy exploits exogenous shifts in the cost of purchasing U.S. commercial weapons, through a combination of time variation in U.S. inflation and cross-sectional variation in a country’s historical frequency of purchases. We find that weapons purchases reduce the likelihood of political repression but increase the likelihood of onset of civil war in purchasing countries. The results suggest that state investment in military capability incites civil war in countries where state repression of an aggrieved opposition would have otherwise prevailed.