Civil War and Foreign Influence
We study a symmetric information bargaining model of civil war where a third (foreign) party can affect the probabilities of winning the conflict and the size of the post conflict spoils. We show that the possible alliance with a third party makes peaceful agreements difficult to reach and might lead to new commitment problems that trigger war. Also, we argue that the foreign party is likely to induce persistent informational asymmetries which might explain long lasting civil wars. We explore both political and economic incentives for a third party to intervene. The explicit consideration of political incentives leads to two predictions that allow for identifying the influence of foreign intervention on civil war incidence. Both predictions are confirmed for the case of the U.S. as a potential intervening nation: (i) civil wars around the world are more likely under Republican governments and (ii) the probability of civil wars decreases with U.S. presidential approval rates.
|Date of creation:||28 Jun 2010|
|Date of revision:||19 Dec 2010|
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- Antras, Pol & Padro i Miquel, Gerard, 2009.
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3374523, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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Economics Working Papers
1053, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Aug 2009.
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- Martin Gassebner & Facundo Albornoz & Toke S. Aidt, 2012.
"The Golden Hello and Political Transitions,"
KOF Working papers
12-316, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Aidt, Toke & Albornoz, Facundo & Gassebner, Martin, 2010. "The Golden Halo and Political Transitions," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Hannover 2010 48, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
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- Toke S. Aidt & Facundo Albornoz & Martin Gassebner, 2012. "The Golden Hello and Political Transitions," CESifo Working Paper Series 3957, CESifo Group Munich.
- repec:oup:qjecon:v:125:y:2010:i:4:p:1821-1858 is not listed on IDEAS
- Arindrajit Dube & Ethan Kaplan & Suresh Naidu, 2011.
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NBER Working Papers
16952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Oeindrila Dube & Juan F. Vargas, 2013. "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 1384-1421.
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