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Weapons and influence: Unpacking the impact of Chinese arms exports on the UNGA voting alignment

Author

Listed:
  • He, Xiaoyu
  • Zheng, Yawen
  • Chen, Yiwen

Abstract

Despite the research exploring factors shaping China’s influence, such causal influence from the perspective of Chinese arms transfers remains to be seen. In this study, we use arms exports and United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) voting data from 140 non-OECD countries between 1990 and 2021 to estimate the causal effect of Chinese arms exports on the recipients’ voting alignments with China in the UNGA, with the voting alignment measured by the proportion of votes that a recipient casts in agreement with China. By using the interaction between the annual exchange rate and cross-country frequencies of receiving arms to construct an instrument, we isolate cleaner exogenous variations in Chinese arms exports. The 2SLS estimates reveal that Chinese arms exports lead to a significant increase in the share of votes cast in favor of China. We also offer plausible explanations for our findings, suggesting that arms recipients may be incentivized to align with China due to the strategic necessity of maintaining their ruling authority and the long-term dependence on Chinese arms supplies.

Suggested Citation

  • He, Xiaoyu & Zheng, Yawen & Chen, Yiwen, 2025. "Weapons and influence: Unpacking the impact of Chinese arms exports on the UNGA voting alignment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:87:y:2025:i:c:s0176268025000266
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102666
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Chinese arms exports; Voting alignment; Deterrence; Dependence on Chinese arms supply;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations

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