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The Political Economics of the Arab Spring

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  • Roland Hodler

Abstract

The Arab Spring has led to very different outcomes across the Arab world. I present a highly stylized model of the Arab Spring to better understand these differences. In this model, dictators from the ethnic or religious majority group concede power if their country is oil-poor, but can stay in power by bribing the people if their country is oil-rich. Dictators from the minority group often rely on other members of their group to repress protests and to fight the majority group if necessary. These predictions are consistent with observed outcomes in Egypt, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and elsewhere.

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  • Roland Hodler, 2012. "The Political Economics of the Arab Spring," CESifo Working Paper Series 4023, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4023
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    Cited by:

    1. Hillman, Arye L. & Metsuyanim, Kfir & Potrafke, Niklas, 2015. "Democracy with group identity," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PB), pages 274-287.
    2. Rudolf, Robert & Wang, Shun & Wu, Fengyu, 2023. "The Arab Spring, a setback for gender equality? Evidence from the Gallup World Poll," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    3. Cruz A. Echevarría & Javier García-Enríquez, 2020. "The economic cost of the Arab Spring: the case of the Egyptian revolution," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1453-1477, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Arab Spring; political transitions; repression; civil conflict; oil; divided societies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

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