IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ememar/v63y2024ics156601412400102x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How do stock markets in emerging economies respond to World Bank loan approvals?

Author

Listed:
  • Kersting, Erasmus
  • Kilby, Christopher

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of World Bank loan approvals on equity markets in borrowing countries. We exploit a rich dataset with World Bank loan commitments and daily stock market returns for 47 emerging markets, allowing us to study short run market reactions to news about World Bank programs. These programs fall into three categories: investment projects, structural adjustment loans that tie future macroeconomic reforms to future loan disbursements (prior to FY2006), and development policy loans that reward completed macroeconomic reforms with current loan disbursements (since FY2006). Event study analysis shows positive abnormal stock market returns on the trading day following investment project loan announcements. The effect depends on loan size as well as market characteristics. Structural adjustment loan announcements are followed by negative abnormal returns; development policy loan announcements, in contrast, are considered good news. This suggests that expected macroeconomic implications of policy change in response to loan conditions drive market reactions, and that changes in the conditionality and disbursement structure of World Bank policy lending were successful in improving market reactions to World Bank programs.

Suggested Citation

  • Kersting, Erasmus & Kilby, Christopher, 2024. "How do stock markets in emerging economies respond to World Bank loan approvals?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:63:y:2024:i:c:s156601412400102x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2024.101207
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S156601412400102X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ememar.2024.101207?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Valentin Lang & David Mihalyi & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2023. "Borrowing Costs after Sovereign Debt Relief," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 331-358, May.
    2. M. Magnusson & B. Wydick, 2002. "How Efficient are Africa's Emerging Stock Markets?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 141-156.
    3. Mauro, Paolo, 2003. "Stock returns and output growth in emerging and advanced economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 129-153, June.
    4. Jørgen Juel Andersen & Niels Johannesen & Bob Rijkers, 2022. "Elite Capture of Foreign Aid: Evidence from Offshore Bank Accounts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(2), pages 388-425.
    5. Lim, Kian-Ping & Brooks, Robert D., 2010. "Why Do Emerging Stock Markets Experience More Persistent Price Deviations From A Random Walk Over Time? A Country-Level Analysis," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(S1), pages 3-41, May.
    6. Kersting, Erasmus K. & Kilby, Christopher, 2016. "With a little help from my friends: Global electioneering and World Bank lending," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 153-165.
    7. Hayo, Bernd & Kutan, Ali M., 2005. "IMF-related news and emerging financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1126-1142, November.
    8. Kai Gehring & Valentin F. Lang, 2018. "Stigma or Cushion? IMF Programs and Sovereign Creditworthiness," CESifo Working Paper Series 7339, CESifo.
    9. Umutlu, Mehmet & Akdeniz, Levent & Altay-Salih, Aslihan, 2010. "The degree of financial liberalization and aggregated stock-return volatility in emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 509-521, March.
    10. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    11. Thorsten Beck & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Ross Levine, 2000. "A New Database on the Structure and Development of the Financial Sector," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 14(3), pages 597-605, September.
    12. Lena Lee Andresen & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2024. "Do geopolitical interests affect how financial markets react to IMF programs?," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 304-329, January.
    13. Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 83-104, Winter.
    14. Kim, Jae H. & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2008. "Are Asian stock markets efficient? Evidence from new multiple variance ratio tests," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 518-532, June.
    15. Evrensel, Ayse Y. & Kutan, Ali M., 2007. "IMF-related announcements and stock market returns: Evidence from financial and non-financial sectors in Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 80-104, January.
    16. Marianne Gogstad & Ali M. Kutan & Yaz Gulnur Muradoglu, 2018. "Do international institutions affect financial markets?: evidence from the Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(7-8), pages 584-605, May.
    17. Wang, Jianxin, 2007. "Foreign equity trading and emerging market volatility: Evidence from Indonesia and Thailand," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 798-811, November.
    18. Charles Amo Yartey, 2008. "The Determinants of Stock Market Development in Emerging Economies: Is South Africa Different?," IMF Working Papers 2008/032, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Serkan Arslanalp & Peter Blair Henry, 2005. "Is Debt Relief Efficient?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 1017-1051, April.
    20. Victor Dragotă & Elena Ţilică, 2014. "Market efficiency of the Post Communist East European stock markets," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 22(2), pages 307-337, June.
    21. Axel Dreher, 2004. "A Public Choice Perspective of IMF and World Bank Lending and Conditionality," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 119(3_4), pages 445-464, June.
    22. Hull, Matthew & McGroarty, Frank, 2014. "Do emerging markets become more efficient as they develop? Long memory persistence in equity indices," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 45-61.
    23. Gehring, Kai & Lang, Valentin, 2020. "Stigma or cushion? IMF programs and sovereign creditworthiness," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    24. Ben Rejeb, Aymen & Boughrara, Adel, 2013. "Financial liberalization and stock markets efficiency: New evidence from emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 186-208.
    25. Kilby, Christopher, 2009. "The political economy of conditionality: An empirical analysis of World Bank loan disbursements," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 51-61, May.
    26. Brealey, R. A. & Kaplanis, E., 2004. "The impact of IMF programs on asset values," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 253-270, March.
    27. Jorge L. Urrutia, 1995. "Tests Of Random Walk And Market Efficiency For Latin American Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(3), pages 299-309, September.
    28. Mehmet Umutlu & Levent Akdeniz & Aslihan Altay-Salih, 2013. "Foreign Equity Trading and Average Stock-return Volatility," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9), pages 1209-1228, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Erasmus Kersting & Christopher Kilby, 2019. "Does the World Bank Move Markets?," Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series 42, Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics.
    2. Jasman Tuyon & Zamri Ahmada, 2016. "Behavioural finance perspectives on Malaysian stock market efficiency," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 16(1), pages 43-61, March.
    3. Silvia Marchesi & Tania Masi & Pietro Bomprezzi, 2024. "Is to Forgive to Forget? Sovereign Risk in the Aftermath of Private or Official Debt Restructurings," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(1), pages 292-334, March.
    4. Auer, Benjamin R., 2016. "On time-varying predictability of emerging stock market returns," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 1-13.
    5. Fathia Elleuch Lahyani, 2014. "Are MENA and Pacific Basin Stock Equity Markets Predictable?," SAGE Open, , vol. 4(4), pages 21582440145, December.
    6. Silvia Marchesi & Tania Masi & Pietro Bomprezzi, 2021. "Is to Forgive to Forget? Sovereign Risk in the Aftermath of a Default," Development Working Papers 475, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    7. Alagidede, Paul & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2009. "Modelling stock returns in Africa's emerging equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 1-11, March.
    8. Kutan, Ali M. & Muradoglu, Gulnur, 2014. "Investor wealth, the IMF, and the Asian crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 130-137.
    9. Kutan, Ali M. & Muradoğlu, Yaz G., 2016. "Financial and real sector returns, IMF-related news, and the Asian crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 28-37.
    10. Graham Smith, 2008. "Liquidity And The Informational Efficiency Of African Stock Markets," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(2), pages 161-175, June.
    11. Maria Rosa Borges, 2010. "Efficient market hypothesis in European stock markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(7), pages 711-726.
    12. Laura Raisa Miloş & Cornel Haţiegan & Marius Cristian Miloş & Flavia Mirela Barna & Claudiu Boțoc, 2020. "Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA) of Stock Market Indexes. Empirical Evidence from Seven Central and Eastern European Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-15, January.
    13. Sensoy, Ahmet & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2016. "Dynamic efficiency of stock markets and exchange rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 353-371.
    14. Valentin Lang & David Mihalyi & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2023. "Borrowing Costs after Sovereign Debt Relief," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 331-358, May.
    15. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2017. "The impact of foreign equity flows on market volatility during politically tranquil and turbulent times: The Egyptian experience," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 61-77.
    16. Plastun, Alex & Sibande, Xolani & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "Rise and fall of calendar anomalies over a century," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 181-205.
    17. Lee, Minhyuk & Song, Jae Wook & Kim, Sondo & Chang, Woojin, 2018. "Asymmetric market efficiency using the index-based asymmetric-MFDFA," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 512(C), pages 1278-1294.
    18. Francesco Guidi & Rakesh Gupta & Suneel Maheshwari, 2011. "Weak-form Market Efficiency and Calendar Anomalies for Eastern Europe Equity Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 10(3), pages 337-389, December.
    19. Bock, J. & Geissel, S., 2024. "Evolution of stock market efficiency in Europe: Evidence from measuring periods of inefficiency," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PA).
    20. Kern, Andreas & Nosrati, Elias & Reinsberg, Bernhard & Sevinc, Dilek, 2023. "Crash for cash: Offshore financial destinations and IMF programs," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    World Bank; Emerging markets; Financial development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:63:y:2024:i:c:s156601412400102x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620356 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.