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World Bank Independence: A Model and Statistical Analysis of U.S. Influence

This paper develops a model to test whether World Bank lending caters to U.S. interests. We use country-level panel data to examine the geographic distribution of World Bank lending to 110 countries from 1968 to 2002. After controlling for country characteristics expected to influence the distribution of lending in a manner consistent with the World Bank’s charter and stated allocation mechanisms, we introduce variables reflecting U.S. interests. The empirical results are consistent with a significant U.S. influence, but one which varies across presidential administrations. These findings have important implications because donor influence may reduce the credibility, and hence the development effectiveness, of multilateral aid organizations.

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File URL: http://irving.vassar.edu/VCEWP/VCEWP53.pdf
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Paper provided by Vassar College Department of Economics in its series Vassar College Department of Economics Working Paper Series with number 53.

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Date of creation: Oct 2001
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Handle: RePEc:vas:papers:53
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Web page: http://irving.vassar.edu/VCEWP/VCEWP.htm

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  1. Axel Dreher & Nathan Jensen, 2005. "Independent Actor or Agent? An Empirical Analysis of the impact of US interests on IMF Conditions," KOF Working papers 05-118, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
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  4. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Henrik Hansen & Finn Tarp, 2004. "On The Empirics of Foreign Aid and Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(496), pages F191-F216, 06.
  5. Kanbur, Ravi, 2005. "Reforming the Formula: A Modest Proposal for Introducing Development Outcomes in IDA Allocation Procedures," Working Papers 127071, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
  6. McGillivray, Mark, 1989. "The allocation of aid among developing countries: A multi-donor analysis using a per capita aid index," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 561-568, April.
  7. Craig Burnside & David Dollar, 2004. "Aid, Policies, and Growth: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 781-784, June.
  8. Enzo Grilli & Markus Riess, 1992. "EC aid to associated countries: distribution and determinants," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 128(2), pages 202-220, June.
  9. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2005. "IMF programs: Who is chosen and what are the effects?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1245-1269, October.
  10. John Hickman, 1993. "Cue Taking and the Distribution of Japanese ODA among African Countries," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 5(1), pages 62-69.
  11. Fleck, Robert K. & Kilby, Christopher, 2005. "How Do Political Changes Influence U.S. Bilateral Aid Allocations? Evidence from Panel Data," Vassar College Department of Economics Working Paper Series 67, Vassar College Department of Economics.
  12. David Roodman, 2007. "The Anarchy of Numbers: Aid, Development, and Cross-Country Empirics," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 21(2), pages 255-277, May.
  13. Alesina, Alberto & Dollar, David, 2000. " Who Gives Foreign Aid to Whom and Why?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 33-63, March.
  14. Michael Clemens & Steven Radelet & Rikhil Bhavnani, 2004. "Counting Chickens When They Hatch: The Short-term Effect of Aid on Growth," Working Papers 44, Center for Global Development.
  15. Kilby, C., 1995. "Supervision and Performance : The Case of World Bank Projects," Discussion Paper 1995-45, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  16. Hansen, Henrik & Tarp, Finn, 1999. "Aid Effectiveness Disputed," MPRA Paper 62290, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Gounder, Rukmani, 1994. "Empirical results of aid motivations: Australia's bilateral aid program," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 99-113, January.
  18. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2001. "IMF lending: how is it affected by economic, political and institutional factors?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 243-270.
  19. Rao, J. Mohan, 1994. "Judging givers: Equity and scale in aid allocation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(10), pages 1579-1584, October.
  20. Cline, William R. & Sargen, Nicholas P., 1975. "Performance criteria and multilateral aid allocation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 3(6), pages 383-391, June.
  21. Alesina, Alberto & Weder, Beatrice, 2002. "Do Corrupt Governments Receive Less Foreign Aid?," Scholarly Articles 4553011, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  22. Dudley, Leonard & Montmarquette, Claude, 1976. "A Model of the Supply of Bilateral Foreign Aid," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(1), pages 132-42, March.
  23. William Easterly & Ross Levine & David Roodman, 2004. "Aid, Policies, and Growth: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 774-780, June.
  24. Robert K. Fleck & Christopher Kilby, 2001. "Foreign Aid and Domestic Politics: Voting in Congress and the Allocation of USAID Contracts across Congressional Districts," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 598-617, January.
  25. Kilby, Christopher, 2005. "Donor Influence in MDBs: the Case of the Asian Development Bank," Vassar College Department of Economics Working Paper Series 70, Vassar College Department of Economics.
  26. Hansen, Henrik & Tarp, Finn, 2000. "Aid and Growth Regressions," MPRA Paper 62288, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  27. Dani Rodrik, 1995. "Why is there Multilateral Lending?," NBER Working Papers 5160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Noël, Alain & Thérien, Jean-Philippe, 1995. "From domestic to international justice: the welfare state and foreign aid," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(03), pages 523-553, June.
  29. Frey, Bruno S. & Schneider, Friedrich, 1986. "Competing models of international lending activity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 225-245, March.
  30. Thomas Barnebeck Andersen & Henrik Hansen & Thomas Markussen, 2004. "US Politics and World Bank IDA-Lending," Discussion Papers 05-06, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics, revised May 2005.
  31. William Easterly, 2003. "Can Foreign Aid Buy Growth?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 23-48, Summer.
  32. Trumbull, William N & Wall, Howard J, 1994. "Estimating Aid-Allocation Criteria with Panel Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(425), pages 876-82, July.
  33. Mosley, Paul, 1985. "The Political Economy of Foreign Aid: A Model of the Market for a Public Good," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(2), pages 373-93, January.
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  35. Clark, Don P, 1991. "Trade versus Aid: Distributions of Third World Development Assistance," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(4), pages 829-37, July.
  36. Krasner, Stephen D., 1981. "Power structures and regional development banks," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(02), pages 303-328, March.
  37. Boone, Peter, 1996. "Politics and the effectiveness of foreign aid," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 289-329, February.
  38. Ascher, William, 1983. "New development approaches and the adaptability of international agencies: the case of the World Bank," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(03), pages 415-439, June.
  39. Ball, Richard & Johnson, Christopher, 1996. "Political, Economic, and Humanitarian Motivations for PL 480 Food Aid: Evidence from Africa," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(3), pages 515-37, April.
  40. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521790956 is not listed on IDEAS
  41. Hoadley, J. Stephen, 1980. "Small states as aid donors," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 121-137, December.
  42. Shapouri, Shahla, 1990. "Food Aid: Motivation and Allocation Criteria," Foreign Agricultural Economic Report (FAER) 147994, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
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