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Aid unpredictability and absorptive capacity: analyzing disbursement delays in Africa

Author

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  • Gaoussou Diarra

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper examines the extent to which aid disbursement delays could be used as an indicator of the aid unpredictability and absorptive capacity in recipient countries. Since many recipient countries are dependent on aid, disbursement delays might matter for its effectiveness. The emphasis is put on the so-called pipeline approach, according to which, in the short run, disbursement constraints may lead to huge delays and weak rates of aid disbursement relative to commitments. After the literature review on disbursement delays, we use the framework of programmable aid to run some econometric estimations through a dynamic model, an ARDL, for a panel of 48 African countries during the period of 1975-2008. We find disbursement constraints mainly at the short-run level, while the main donor's specific factors seem to be the selectivity and the degree of aid fragmentation. Disbursement rates and rhythms are also influenced by the economic performance and governance quality of the recipient countries and the share of grants in aid modalities. Bilateral donors are found to under-perform in comparison with multilateral donors in terms of the rhythm of aid disbursement.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaoussou Diarra, 2011. "Aid unpredictability and absorptive capacity: analyzing disbursement delays in Africa," Post-Print halshs-00601344, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00601344
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    Cited by:

    1. Alessandro De Matteis, 2018. "Follow the leader! The peer effect in aid supply decisions," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 36(6), pages 631-648, October.
    2. Kersting, Erasmus K. & Kilby, Christopher, 2016. "With a little help from my friends: Global electioneering and World Bank lending," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 153-165.
    3. Fahmida Khatun & Syed Yusuf Saadat & Md. Kamruzzaman, 2019. "FINANCE FOR SDGs: Addressing Governance Challenge of Aid Utilisation in Bangladesh," CPD Working Paper 125, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).
    4. Muhammad Amir Ingratubun, 2021. "Dutch Curse on Indonesia: The Morality of Asian Development Bank (ADB) Loan Projects," Scientia Moralitas Conference Proceedings 01251, Research Association for Interdisciplinary Studies.
    5. Jain, Panika & Bardhan, Samaresh, 2024. "Sustainable energy deployment in developing countries: The role of composition of energy aid," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(3).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O2 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

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