IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/halshs-00601344.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Aid unpredictability and absorptive capacity: analyzing disbursement delays in Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Gaoussou Diarra

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper examines the extent to which aid disbursement delays could be used as an indicator of the aid unpredictability and absorptive capacity in recipient countries. Since many recipient countries are dependent on aid, disbursement delays might matter for its effectiveness. The emphasis is put on the so-called pipeline approach, according to which, in the short run, disbursement constraints may lead to huge delays and weak rates of aid disbursement relative to commitments. After the literature review on disbursement delays, we use the framework of programmable aid to run some econometric estimations through a dynamic model, an ARDL, for a panel of 48 African countries during the period of 1975-2008. We find disbursement constraints mainly at the short-run level, while the main donor's specific factors seem to be the selectivity and the degree of aid fragmentation. Disbursement rates and rhythms are also influenced by the economic performance and governance quality of the recipient countries and the share of grants in aid modalities. Bilateral donors are found to under-perform in comparison with multilateral donors in terms of the rhythm of aid disbursement.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaoussou Diarra, 2011. "Aid unpredictability and absorptive capacity: analyzing disbursement delays in Africa," Post-Print halshs-00601344, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00601344
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00601344
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Aizenman, Joshua, 2010. "Aid volatility and poverty traps," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 1-7, January.
    2. Bourguignon, Fran.ois & Sundberg, Mark, 2006. "Absorptive Capacity and Achieving the MDGs," WIDER Working Paper Series 047, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. J. Atsu Amegashie & Bazoumana Ouattara & Eric Strobl, 2007. "Moral Hazard and the Composition of Transfers: Theory with an Application to Foreign Aid," CESifo Working Paper Series 1996, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. Bulir, Ales & Hamann, A. Javier, 2001. "How Volatile and Unpredictable are Aid Flows, and What are the Policy Implications?," WIDER Working Paper Series 143, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY & Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2007. "Absorptive Capacity: More Than the Volume of Aid, its Modalities Matter," Working Papers 200702, CERDI.
    6. Azam, Jean-Paul & Laffont, Jean-Jacques, 2003. "Contracting for aid," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 25-58, February.
    7. Oya Celasun & Jan Walliser, 2008. "Predictability of aid: Do fickle donors undermine aid effectiveness?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 23, pages 545-594, July.
    8. Arellano, Cristina & Bulír, Ales & Lane, Timothy & Lipschitz, Leslie, 2009. "The dynamic implications of foreign aid and its variability," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 87-102, January.
    9. Ale Bulir & A. Javier Hamann, 2003. "Aid Volatility: An Empirical Assessment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(1), pages 1-4.
    10. Rajan, Raghuram G. & Subramanian, Arvind, 2011. "Aid, Dutch disease, and manufacturing growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 106-118, January.
    11. Svensson, Jakob, 2003. "Why conditional aid does not work and what can be done about it?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 381-402, April.
    12. Alesina, Alberto & Dollar, David, 2000. "Who Gives Foreign Aid to Whom and Why?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 33-63, March.
    13. Berthelemy, Jean-Claude & Tichit, Ariane, 2004. "Bilateral donors' aid allocation decisions--a three-dimensional panel analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 253-274.
    14. Robert Lensink & Oliver Morrissey, 2000. "Aid instability as a measure of uncertainty and the positive impact of aid on growth," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 31-49.
    15. Patrick Guillaumont, 2010. "Assessing the Economic Vulnerability of Small Island Developing States and the Least Developed Countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(5), pages 828-854.
    16. Bulír, Ales & Hamann, A. Javier, 2008. "Volatility of Development Aid: From the Frying Pan into the Fire?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2048-2066, October.
    17. Fielding, David & Mavrotas, George, 2005. "The Volatility of Aid," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2005/06, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    18. J. Atsu Amegashie & Bazoumana Ouattara & Eric Strobl, 2007. "Moral Hazard and the Composition of Transfers: Theory with an Application to Foreign Aid," Working Papers 0702, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
    19. Ruth Vargas Hill, 2005. "Assessing rhetoric and reality in the predictability of aid," Human Development Occasional Papers (1992-2007) HDOCPA-2005-25, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
    20. Svensson, Jakob, 2000. "When is foreign aid policy credible? Aid dependence and conditionality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 61-84, February.
    21. Villanger, Espen, 2006. "Company interests and foreign aid policy: Playing donors off against one another," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 533-545, April.
    22. Peter S. Heller, 2005. "Pity the Finance Minister; Issues in Managing a Substantial Scaling-Up of Aid Flows," IMF Working Papers 05/180, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Hagen, Rune Jansen, 2006. "Samaritan agents? On the strategic delegation of aid policy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 249-263, February.
    24. Collier, Paul & Dollar, David, 2002. "Aid allocation and poverty reduction," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(8), pages 1475-1500, September.
    25. Adam, Christopher & Chambas, Gerard & Guillaumont, Patrick & Guillaumont Jeanneney, Sylviane & Gunning, Jan Willem, 2004. "Performance-Based Conditionality: A European Perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1059-1070, June.
    26. Isopi, Alessia & Mavrotas, George, 2006. "Aid Allocation and Aid Effectiveness: An Empirical Analysis," WIDER Working Paper Series 007, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    27. Michael A. Clemens & Steven Radelet & Rikhil Bhavnani, 2004. "Counting chickens when they hatch: The short-term effect of aid on growth," International Finance 0407010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    28. Irandoust, Manuchehr & Ericsson, Johan, 2005. "Foreign aid, domestic savings, and growth in LDCs: An application of likelihood-based panel cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 616-627, July.
    29. Timothy D. Lane & Ales Bulir, 2002. "Aid and Fiscal Management," IMF Working Papers 02/112, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Buffie, Edward F. & O'Connell, Stephen A. & Adam, Christopher, 2010. "Fiscal inertia, donor credibility, and the monetary management of aid surges," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 287-298, November.
    31. Bowman, Chakriya & Chand, Satish, 2007. "Size Matters: The Impact of Aid on Institutions," WIDER Working Paper Series 025, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    32. Odedokun, Matthew, 2003. "Analysis of Deviations and Delays in Aid Disbursements," WIDER Working Paper Series 026, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kersting, Erasmus K. & Kilby, Christopher, 2016. "With a little help from my friends: Global electioneering and World Bank lending," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 153-165.
    2. Alessandro De Matteis, 2018. "Follow the leader! The peer effect in aid supply decisions," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 36(6), pages 631-648, October.
    3. Fahmida Khatun & Syed Yusuf Saadat & Md. Kamruzzaman, 2019. "FINANCE FOR SDGs: Addressing Governance Challenge of Aid Utilisation in Bangladesh," CPD Working Paper 125, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cerdi;

    JEL classification:

    • O2 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00601344. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.