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AID, Policy and Peace: Reducing the risks of civil conflict

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  • Paul Collier
  • Anke Hoeffler

Abstract

We analyze theoretically and empirically the effects of economic policy and the receipt of foreign aid on the risk of civil war. We find that aid and policy do not have direct effects upon conflict risk. However, both directly affect the growth rate and the extent of dependence upon primary commodity exports, and these in turn affect the risk of conflict. Simulating the effect of a package of policy reform and increased aid on the average aid recipient country, we find that after five years the risk of conflict is reduced by nearly 30%.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2002. "AID, Policy and Peace: Reducing the risks of civil conflict," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(6), pages 435-450.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:13:y:2002:i:6:p:435-450 DOI: 10.1080/10242690214335
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke, 1998. "On Economic Causes of Civil War," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(4), pages 563-573, October.
    2. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-380, November.
    3. Dollar, David & Svensson, Jakob, 2000. "What Explains the Success or Failure of Structural Adjustment Programmes?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(466), pages 894-917, October.
    4. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and grievance in civil war," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 563-595, October.
    5. Collier, Paul & Dollar, David, 2002. "Aid allocation and poverty reduction," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(8), pages 1475-1500, September.
    6. Hansen, Henrik & Tarp, Finn, 2001. "Aid and growth regressions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 547-570.
    7. Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke, 2004. "Aid, policy and growth in post-conflict societies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, pages 1125-1145.
    8. Feyzioglu, Tarhan & Swaroop, Vinaya & Zhu, Min, 1998. "A Panel Data Analysis of the Fungibility of Foreign Aid," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(1), pages 29-58, January.
    9. Hansen, Henrik & Tarp, Finn, 2001. "Aid and growth regressions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 547-570.
    10. Azam, Jean-Paul, 1995. "How to Pay for the Peace? A Theoretical Framework with References to African Countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 83(1-2), pages 173-184, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. International Monetary Fund, 2006. "Sierra Leone; Request for a Three–Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility," IMF Staff Country Reports 06/183, International Monetary Fund.
    2. repec:eee:wdevel:v:98:y:2017:i:c:p:506-522 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke, 2004. "Aid, policy and growth in post-conflict societies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, pages 1125-1145.
    4. McKay, Andrew, 2002. "Assessing the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Poverty," WIDER Working Paper Series 043, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Bluhm, Richard & Gassebner, Martin & Langlotz, Sarah & Schaudt, Paul, 2016. "Fueling conflict? : (De)escalation and bilateral aid," MERIT Working Papers 053, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    6. Ali Choudhary & Amjad Ali & Shah Hussain & Vasco J. Gabriel, 2012. "Bank Lending and Monetary Shocks: Evidence from a Developing Economy," SBP Working Paper Series 45, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    7. Strange, Austin M. & Parks , Bradley & Tierney, Michael J. & Fuchs, Andreas & Dreher , Axel, 2014. "Tracking Under-Reported Financial Flows: China’s Development Finance and the Aid-Conflict Nexus Revisited," Working Papers 0553, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    8. Oeindrila Dube & Suresh Naidu, 2010. "Bases, Bullets, and Ballots: The Effect of U.S. Military Aid on Political Conflict in Colombia," Working Papers 197, Center for Global Development.
    9. Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2016. "Recent patterns of post-conflict aid: Did donors help sustain peace?," Kiel Working Papers 2043, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    10. Katsos, John E. & Fort, Timothy L., 2016. "Leadership in the promotion of peace: Interviews with the 2015 Business for Peace honorees," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 59(5), pages 463-470.
    11. Nathan Nunn & Nancy Qian, 2012. "Aiding Conflict: The Impact of U.S. Food Aid on Civil War," Working Papers id:4773, eSocialSciences.
    12. Wong, Pui-Hang, 2017. "How development aid explains (or not) the rise and fall of insurgent attacks in Iraq," MERIT Working Papers 006, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    13. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, pages 3-57.
    14. Donaubauer, Julian & Herzer, Dierk & Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2016. "The effectiveness of aid under post-conflict conditions: A sector-specific analysis," Kiel Working Papers 2065, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    15. Martha Starr, 2006. "Growth and conflict in the developing world: Neo-liberal narratives and social-economy alternatives," Review of Social Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 205-224.
    16. Stijn van Weezel, 2017. "Mostly Harmless? A Subnational Analysis of the Aid-Conflict Nexus," Working Papers 201728, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    17. Blay-Tofey, Morkeh & Lee, Bandy X., 2015. "Preventing gender-based violence engendered by conflict: The case of Côte d'Ivoire," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, pages 341-347.

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