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Sovereign Debt Restructurings: Preemptive Or Post-Default

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  • Tamon Asonuma
  • Christoph Trebesch

Abstract

Sovereign debt restructurings can be implemented preemptively - prior to a payment default. We code a comprehensive new dataset and find that preemptive restructurings (i) are frequent (38% of all deals 1978-2010), (ii) have lower haircuts, (iii) are quicker to negotiate, and (iv) see lower output losses. To rationalize these stylized facts, we build a quantitative sovereign debt model that incorporates preemptive and post-default renegotiations. The model improves the fit with the data and explains the sovereign's optimal choice: preemptive restructurings occur when default risk is high ex-ante, while defaults occur after unexpected bad shocks. Empirical evidence supports these predictions.
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Suggested Citation

  • Tamon Asonuma & Christoph Trebesch, 2016. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings: Preemptive Or Post-Default," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 175-214, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jeurec:v:14:y:2016:i:1:p:175-214
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/jeea.2016.14.issue-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters,in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Princeton University Press.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 1065-1188, November.
    3. Tamon Asonuma & Gerardo Peraza & Kristine Vitola & Takahiro Tsuda, 2014. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings in Belize; Achievements and Challenges Ahead," IMF Working Papers 14/132, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Hatchondo, Juan Carlos & Martinez, Leonardo & Sosa Padilla, César, 2014. "Voluntary sovereign debt exchanges," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 32-50.
    5. Javier Díaz-Cassou & Aitor Erce-Domínguez & Juan J. Vázquez-Zamora, 2008. "Recent episodes of sovereign debt restructurings. A case-study approach," Occasional Papers 0804, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
    6. Rohan Pitchford & Mark L. J. Wright, 2012. "Holdouts in Sovereign Debt Restructuring: A Theory of Negotiation in a Weak Contractual Environment," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 79(2), pages 812-837.
    7. Tamon Asonuma, 2010. "Serial Default and Debt Renegotiation," 2010 Meeting Papers 169, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Natalia Kovrijnykh & Balázs Szentes, 2007. "Equilibrium Default Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 403-446.
    9. David Benjamin & Mark L. J. Wright, 2009. "Recovery Before Redemption: A Theory Of Delays In Sovereign Debt Renegotiations," CAMA Working Papers 2009-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Ran Bi, 2008. ""Beneficial" Delays in Debt Restructuring Negotiations," 2008 Meeting Papers 766, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Fernández, Raquel & Martin, Alberto, 2014. "The Long and the Short of It: Sovereign Debt Crises and Debt Maturity," CEPR Discussion Papers 10322, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Chapter 1," MPRA Paper 17452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Patrick Bolton & Olivier Jeanne, 2007. "Structuring and Restructuring Sovereign Debt: The Role of a Bankruptcy Regime," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(6), pages 901-924, December.
    15. Roubini, Nouriel & Brad Setser, 2004. "Bailouts or Bail-ins? Responding to Financial Crises in Emerging Economies," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 378.
    16. Christoph Trebesch & Michael G. Papaioannou & Udaibir S Das, 2012. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010; Literature Survey, Data, and Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 12/203, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tamon Asonuma & Gerardo Peraza & Kristine Vitola & Takahiro Tsuda, 2014. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings in Belize; Achievements and Challenges Ahead," IMF Working Papers 14/132, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Javier Bianchi & Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez, 2012. "International Reserves and Rollover Risk," NBER Working Papers 18628, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Tamon Asonuma & Dirk Niepelt & Romain Ranciere, 2017. "Sovereign Bond Prices, Haircuts and Maturity," IMF Working Papers 17/119, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Trebesch, Christoph, 2014. "A Distant Mirror of Debt, Default, and Relief," CEPR Discussion Papers 10195, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch, 2016. "Sovereign Debt Relief And Its Aftermath," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 215-251, February.
    6. Tamon Asonuma & Marcos Chamon & Akira Sasahara, 2016. "Trade Costs of Sovereign Debt Restructurings; Does a Market-Friendly Approach Improve the Outcome?," IMF Working Papers 16/222, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Silvia Marchesi, 2016. "Life after default? Private vs. official sovereign debt restructurings," Development Working Papers 398, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano, revised 26 Aug 2016.
    8. Asonuma, Tamon, 2014. "Sovereign defaults, external debt and real exchange rate dynamics," MPRA Paper 55133, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Bassanetti , Antonio & Cottarelli , Carlo & Presbitero, Andrea, 2016. "Lost and Found: Market Access and Public Debt Dynamics," SEP Working Papers 2016/5, LUISS School of European Political Economy.
    10. repec:eee:macchp:v2-1697 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Julian Schumacher & Christoph Trebesch & Henrik Enderlein, 2015. "What Explains Sovereign Debt Litigation?," CESifo Working Paper Series 5319, CESifo Group Munich.
    12. repec:sgm:jbfeuw:v:2:y:2017:i:8:p:5-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Lorenzo Forni & Geremia Palomba & Joana Pereira & Christine J. Richmond, 2016. "Sovereign Debt Restructuring and Growth," IMF Working Papers 16/147, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Trebesch, Christoph & Zabel, Michael, 2017. "The output costs of hard and soft sovereign default," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 416-432.
    15. Aguiar, M. & Chatterjee, S. & Cole, H. & Stangebye, Z., 2016. "Quantitative Models of Sovereign Debt Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier.
    16. Müller, Andreas & Storesletten, Kjetil & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2015. "Sovereign Debt and Structural Reforms," CEPR Discussion Papers 10588, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. repec:eee:moneco:v:90:y:2017:i:c:p:50-63 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Tamon Asonuma, 2016. "Serial Sovereign Defaults and Debt Restructurings," IMF Working Papers 16/66, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Julian Schumacher, Christoph Trebesch, Henrik Enderlein, . "What Explains Sovereign Debt Litigation?," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(3).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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