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Sovereign Debt Restructurings: Preemptive Or Post-Default

Listed author(s):
  • Tamon Asonuma
  • Christoph Trebesch

Sovereign debt restructurings can be implemented preemptively - prior to a payment default. We code a comprehensive new dataset and find that preemptive restructurings (i) are frequent (38% of all deals 1978-2010), (ii) have lower haircuts, (iii) are quicker to negotiate, and (iv) see lower output losses. To rationalize these stylized facts, we build a quantitative sovereign debt model that incorporates preemptive and post-default renegotiations. The model improves the fit with the data and explains the sovereign's optimal choice: preemptive restructurings occur when default risk is high ex-ante, while defaults occur after unexpected bad shocks. Empirical evidence supports these predictions.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/jeea.2016.14.issue-1
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Article provided by European Economic Association in its journal Journal of the European Economic Association.

Volume (Year): 14 (2016)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 175-214

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jeurec:v:14:y:2016:i:1:p:175-214
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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters,in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Princeton University Press.
  2. Tamon Asonuma & Gerardo Peraza & Kristine Vitola & Takahiro Tsuda, 2014. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings in Belize; Achievements and Challenges Ahead," IMF Working Papers 14/132, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Hatchondo, Juan Carlos & Martinez, Leonardo & Sosa Padilla, César, 2014. "Voluntary sovereign debt exchanges," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 32-50.
  4. Javier Díaz-Cassou & Aitor Erce-Domínguez & Juan J. Vázquez-Zamora, 2008. "Recent episodes of sovereign debt restructurings. A case-study approach," Occasional Papers 0804, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
  5. Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
  6. Rohan Pitchford & Mark L. J. Wright, 2012. "Holdouts in Sovereign Debt Restructuring: A Theory of Negotiation in a Weak Contractual Environment," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 79(2), pages 812-837.
  7. Tamon Asonuma, 2010. "Serial Default and Debt Renegotiation," 2010 Meeting Papers 169, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Natalia Kovrijnykh & Balázs Szentes, 2007. "Equilibrium Default Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 403-446.
  9. David Benjamin & Mark L. J. Wright, 2009. "Recovery Before Redemption: A Theory Of Delays In Sovereign Debt Renegotiations," CAMA Working Papers 2009-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  10. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Ran Bi, 2008. ""Beneficial" Delays in Debt Restructuring Negotiations," 2008 Meeting Papers 766, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  12. Fernández, Raquel & Martin, Alberto, 2014. "The Long and the Short of It: Sovereign Debt Crises and Debt Maturity," CEPR Discussion Papers 10322, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Chapter 1," MPRA Paper 17452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Patrick Bolton & Olivier Jeanne, 2007. "Structuring and Restructuring Sovereign Debt: The Role of a Bankruptcy Regime," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(6), pages 901-924, December.
  15. Roubini, Nouriel & Brad Setser, 2004. "Bailouts or Bail-ins? Responding to Financial Crises in Emerging Economies," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 378, November.
  16. Christoph Trebesch & Michael G Papaioannou & Udaibir S Das, 2012. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010; Literature Survey, Data, and Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 12/203, International Monetary Fund.
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