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Sovereign defaults, external debt and real exchange rate dynamics


  • Asonuma, Tamon


Emerging countries experience real exchange rate depreciations around defaults. In this paper, we examine this observed pattern empirically and through the lens of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The theoretical model explicitly incorporates bond issuances in local and foreign currencies, and endogenous determination of real exchange rate and default risk. Our quantitative analysis, using the case of Argentina�s default in 2001, replicates the link between real exchange rate depreciation and default probability around defaults and moments of the real exchange rate that match the data. Prior to default, interactions of real exchange rate depreciation, originated from a sequence of low tradable goods shocks with the sovereign�s large share of foreign currency debt, trigger defaults. In post-default periods, the resulting output costs and loss of market access due to default lead to further real exchange rate depreciation.

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  • Asonuma, Tamon, 2014. "Sovereign defaults, external debt and real exchange rate dynamics," MPRA Paper 55133, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:55133

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    Cited by:

    1. Tamon Asonuma & Marcos Chamon & Akira Sasahara, 2016. "Trade Costs of Sovereign Debt Restructurings; Does a Market-Friendly Approach Improve the Outcome?," IMF Working Papers 16/222, International Monetary Fund.
    2. repec:eee:macchp:v2-1697 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Popov, Sergey V. & Wiczer, David G., 2009. "Equilibrium sovereign default with endogenous exchange rate depreciation," MPRA Paper 18854, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Scholl, Almuth & Kaas, Leo & Meller, Jan, 2016. "Sovereign and Private Default Risks over the Business Cycle," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145958, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Gabriel Mihalache, 2017. "Default Risk, Sectoral Reallocation, and Persistent Recessions," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2017 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Aguiar, M. & Chatterjee, S. & Cole, H. & Stangebye, Z., 2016. "Quantitative Models of Sovereign Debt Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier.
    7. Ricardo Sabbadini, 2017. "Overcoming the Original Sin: Gains from Local Currency External Debt," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2017_27, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).

    More about this item


    Sovereign defaults; External debt; Real exchange rate; Currency composition of debt;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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