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Default Risk, Sectoral Reallocation and Persistent Recessions

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  • Cristina Arellano
  • Yan Bai
  • Gabriel Mihalache

Abstract

Sovereign debt crises are associated with large and persistent declines in economic activity, disproportionately so for nontradable sectors. This paper documents this pattern using Spanish data and builds a two-sector dynamic quantitative model of sovereign default with capital accumulation. Recessions are very persistent in the model and more pronounced for nontraded sectors because of default risk. An adverse domestic shock increases the likelihood of default, limits capital in?ows, and thus restricts the ability of the economy to exploit investment opportunities. The economy responds by reducing investment and reallocating capital toward the traded sector to support debt service payments. The real exchange rate depreciates, a re?ection of the scarcity of traded goods. We ?nd that these mechanisms are quantitatively important for rationalizing the experience of Spain during the recent debt crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Gabriel Mihalache, 2017. "Default Risk, Sectoral Reallocation and Persistent Recessions," Staff Report 555, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:555
    DOI: 10.21034/sr.555
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    Cited by:

    1. Sophie Piton, 2018. "Do Unit Labor Costs Matter? A Decomposition Exercise on European Data," Working Papers 2018-07, CEPII research center.
    2. Michael Olabisi, 2020. "Input–Output Linkages and Sectoral Volatility," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 87(347), pages 713-746, July.
    3. Cardi, Olivier & Restout, Romain & Claeys, Peter, 2020. "Imperfect mobility of labor across sectors and fiscal transmission," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    4. Keiichiro Kobayashi & Kozo Ueda, 2022. "Secular Stagnation and Low Interest Rates under the Fear of a Government Debt Crisis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(4), pages 779-824, June.
    5. Furceri, Davide & Kilic Celik, Sinem & Jalles, João Tovar & Koloskova, Ksenia, 2021. "Recessions and total factor productivity: Evidence from sectoral data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 130-138.
    6. Cristina Arellano & Gabriel Mihalache & Yan Bai, 2018. "Inflation Targeting with Sovereign Default Risk," 2018 Meeting Papers 851, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Minjie Deng & Chang Liu, 2021. "Sovereign Risk and Intangible Investment," Discussion Papers dp21-16, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    8. George Alessandria & Minjie Deng & Yan Bai, 2019. "Sovereign Default Risk and Migration," 2019 Meeting Papers 1085, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Fornari, Fabio & Zaghini, Andrea, 2021. "It's not time to make a change: Sovereign fragility and the corporate credit risk," CFS Working Paper Series 652, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    10. Sophie Piton, 2017. "Economic Integration and the Non-tradable Sector: The European Experience," 2017 Papers ppi361, Job Market Papers.
    11. Alessandria, George & Bai, Yan & Deng, Minjie, 2020. "Migration and sovereign default risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1-22.
    12. Dachraoui, Hajer & Smida, Mounir & Sebri, Maamar, 2020. "Role of capital flight as a driver of sovereign bond spreads in Latin American countries," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 15-33.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Traded and nontraded production; Sovereign default with production economy; Capital accumulation; Real exchange rate; European debt crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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