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Dynamics of investment, debt, and default

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  • Grey Gordon
  • Pablo Guerron-Quintana

Abstract

How does physical capital accumulation affect the decision to default in developing small open economies? We find that, conditional on a level of foreign indebtedness, more capital improves the sovereign?s ability to meet its obligations, reducing the likelihood of default and the risk premium. This effect, however, is diminishing in the stock of capital because capital also tames the severity of the contraction following default, making autarky more appealing. Access to long-term debt and costly capital adjustment are crucial for matching business cycles. Our quantitative model delivers default episodes that mimic those observed in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Grey Gordon & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2013. "Dynamics of investment, debt, and default," Working Papers 13-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:13-18
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marios Karabarbounis & Patrick Macnamara, 2019. "Misallocation and Credit Market Constraints: the Role of Long-Term Financing," Working Paper 19-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, revised 16 Jan 2019.
    2. Arellano, Cristina & Bai, Yan & Mihalache, Gabriel, 2018. "Default risk, sectoral reallocation, and persistent recessions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 182-199.
    3. Yongquan Cao & Grey Gordon, 2019. "A Practical Approach to Testing Calibration Strategies," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(3), pages 1165-1182, March.
    4. Park, JungJae, 2011. "Sovereign Default and Capital Accumulation," MPRA Paper 60150, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2014.
    5. Aguiar, M. & Chatterjee, S. & Cole, H. & Stangebye, Z., 2016. "Quantitative Models of Sovereign Debt Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.),Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1697-1755, Elsevier.
    6. Siming Liu & Hewei Shen, 2018. "Fiscal Commitment and Sovereign Default Risk," CAEPR Working Papers 2018-003, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    7. Park, JungJae, 2017. "Sovereign default and capital accumulation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 119-133.
    8. Mihalache, Gabriel, 2020. "Sovereign default resolution through maturity extension," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    9. Grey Gordon & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2018. "Dynamics of Investment, Debt, and Default," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 28, pages 71-95, April.
    10. Tavares, Tiago, 2019. "Labor market distortions under sovereign debt default crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    11. Carlo Galli, 2019. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises, Fiscal Policy and Investment," Discussion Papers 1904, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    12. Phan, Toan, 2017. "A model of sovereign debt with private information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 1-17.
    13. Ram Yamarthy, 2019. "Corporate Debt Maturity and the Real Economy," 2019 Meeting Papers 627, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2020. "“Migration and sovereign default risk” a comment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 23-27.
    15. Dominik Thaler, 2018. "Sovereign default, domestic banks and exclusion from international capital markets," Working Papers 1824, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    16. Kollintzas, Tryphon & Tsoukalas, Konstantinos, 2015. "Bank and Sovereign Risk Interdependence in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 10485, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Grey Gordon & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2019. "A Quantitative Theory of Hard and Soft Sovereign Defaults," 2019 Meeting Papers 412, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Alessandria, George & Bai, Yan & Deng, Minjie, 2020. "Migration and sovereign default risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1-22.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investments; Debt; Default (Finance);

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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