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Sovereign default and the choice of maturity

Author

Listed:
  • Horacio Sapriza

    (Board of Governors)

  • Emircan Yurdagul

    (Washington University in Saint Louis)

  • Juan Sanchez

    (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

Abstract

This paper provides a new framework to study the term structure of interest rate spreads and the maturity composition of sovereign bonds. As observed in the literature, sovereign interest rate spreads increase during crises, with short term interest rate spreads rising more than long term spreads. The inversion of the yield curve is accompanied by lower debt issuance and a shortening of the maturity structure. In addition, sovereign debt restructurings may lead to a non-monotonic term structure of interest rate spreads, as evidenced during the recent sovereign debt crisis in Greece, when the yield curve developed a humped shape. To properly capture the observed variation of expected sovereign debt collection at different horizons and thus account for the dynamics in the maturity of debt issuances and its co-movement with the level of spreads across maturities found in the data, this paper introduces a new quantitative dynamic model of the term structure of interest rate spreads of government defaultable debt under incomplete markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Horacio Sapriza & Emircan Yurdagul & Juan Sanchez, 2014. "Sovereign default and the choice of maturity," 2014 Meeting Papers 799, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed014:799
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    Cited by:

    1. Pancrazi, Roberto & Seoane, Hernán D. & Vukotić, Marija, 2020. "Welfare gains of bailouts in a sovereign default model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    2. Leonardo Martinez & Juan Hatchondo, 2017. "Sovereign Cocos and the Reprofiling of Debt Payments," 2017 Meeting Papers 1435, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Juan Passadore & Juan Xandri, 2019. "Robust Predictions in Dynamic Policy Games," 2019 Meeting Papers 1345, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Pancrazi, Roberto & Seoane, Hernán D. & Vukotić, Marija, 2020. "Welfare gains of bailouts in a sovereign default model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    5. Juan Carlos Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2017. "Gambling for redemption and self-fulfilling debt crises," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(4), pages 707-740, December.
    6. Aguiar, M. & Chatterjee, S. & Cole, H. & Stangebye, Z., 2016. "Quantitative Models of Sovereign Debt Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1697-1755, Elsevier.
    7. Mihalache, Gabriel, 2020. "Sovereign default resolution through maturity extension," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    8. Grey Gordon & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2018. "Dynamics of Investment, Debt, and Default," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 28, pages 71-95, April.
    9. Javier Bianchi & Jorge Mondragon, 2022. "Monetary Independence and Rollover Crises," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(1), pages 435-491.
    10. Seon Tae Kim & Gabriel Mihalache & Yan Bai, 2014. "Maturity and Repayment Structure of Sovereign Debt," 2014 Meeting Papers 523, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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