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Maturity and Repayment Structure of Sovereign Debt

Author

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  • Seon Tae Kim

    (Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México)

  • Gabriel Mihalache

    (University of Rochester)

  • Yan Bai

    (University of Rochester)

Abstract

This paper studies the maturity, timing and relative size of repayments for sovereign debt. Using Bloomberg bond data for emerging economies, we document that sovereigns issue debt with shorter maturity but more back-loaded repayments during downturns. To account for this pattern, we study a sovereign-default model of a small open economy which issues a state-uncontingent bond, with a flexible choice of maturity and repayment schedule. In our model, as in the data, during recessions the country prefers its payments to be more back- loaded—delaying relatively larger payments—in order to smooth consumption. However, such back-loaded debt is expensive since payments scheduled later involve higher default risk. To reduce borrowing costs, the country optimally shortens its maturity. We calibrate the model to yearly Brazilian data. The model can rationalize the observed patterns of maturity and repayment structure, as an optimal trade-off between consumption smoothing and endogenous borrowing cost due to lack of enforcement.

Suggested Citation

  • Seon Tae Kim & Gabriel Mihalache & Yan Bai, 2014. "Maturity and Repayment Structure of Sovereign Debt," 2014 Meeting Papers 523, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed014:523
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Eidam, Frederik, 2020. "Gap-filling government debt maturity choice," ESRB Working Paper Series 110, European Systemic Risk Board.
    2. Crosignani, Matteo & Faria-e-Castro, Miguel & Fonseca, Luís, 2020. "The (Unintended?) consequences of the largest liquidity injection ever," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 97-112.
    3. Aguiar, M. & Chatterjee, S. & Cole, H. & Stangebye, Z., 2016. "Quantitative Models of Sovereign Debt Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1697-1755, Elsevier.
    4. Dvorkin, Maximiliano & Sánchez, Juan M. & Sapriza, Horacio & Yurdagul, Emircan, 2020. "News, sovereign debt maturity, and default risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Eidam, Frederik, 2018. "Gap-filling government debt maturity choice," ZEW Discussion Papers 18-025, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    6. Maximiliano Dvorkin & Emircan Yurdagul & Horacio Sapriza & Juan Sanchez, 2018. "Sovereign Debt Restructuring: A Dynamic Discrete Choice Approach," 2018 Meeting Papers 1273, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Mihalache, Gabriel, 2020. "Sovereign default resolution through maturity extension," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    8. Sánchez, Juan M. & Sapriza, Horacio & Yurdagul, Emircan, 2018. "Sovereign default and maturity choice," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 72-85.
    9. Horacio Sapriza & Emircan Yurdagul & Juan Sanchez, 2014. "Sovereign default and the choice of maturity," 2014 Meeting Papers 799, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Corsetti, G. & Erce, A. & Uy, T., 2018. "Debt Sustainability and the Terms of Official Support," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1864, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    11. Kim, Jiseob & Lim, Taejun, 2021. "Cost-effective mortgage modification program to reduce mortgage defaults," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 220-241.
    12. Luigi Bocola & Alessandro Dovis, 2019. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises: A Quantitative Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(12), pages 4343-4377, December.
    13. Luís Fonseca & Miguel Faria-e-Castro & Matteo Crosignani, 2015. "Central Bank Interventions, Demand for Collateral, and Sovereign Borrowing Costs," Working Papers w201509, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    14. Maximiliano Dvorkin & Juan M. Sanchez & Horacio Sapriza & Emircan Yurdagul, 2018. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings," Working Papers 2018-13, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    15. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Hanson, Jesper & de Jong, Frank, 2021. "The maturity of sovereign debt issuance in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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