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The Maturity of Sovereign Debt Issuance in the Euro Area

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  • Beetsma, Roel
  • Giuliodori, Massimo
  • Hanson, Jesper
  • de Jong, Frank

Abstract

We use information on new sovereign debt issues in the euro area to explore the drivers behind the debt maturity decisions of governments. We set up a theoretical model for the maturity structure that trades off the preference for liquidity services provided by short-term debt, roll-over risk and price risk. The average debt maturity is negatively related to both the level and the slope of the yield curve. A panel VAR analysis shows that positive shocks to risk aversion, the probability of non-repayment and the demand for the liquidity services of short-term debt all have a positive effect on the yield curve level and slope, and a negative effect on the average maturity of new debt issues. These results are partially in line with our theory. A forecast error variance decomposition suggests that changes in the probability of non-repayment as captured by the expected default frequency extracted from credit default spreads are the most important source of shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Hanson, Jesper & de Jong, Frank, 2019. "The Maturity of Sovereign Debt Issuance in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 13729, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13729
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    Cited by:

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    2. Casalin, Fabrizio & Cerniglia, Floriana & Dia, Enzo, 2023. "Stock-flow adjustments, public debt management and interest costs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    3. De Graeve, Ferre & Mazzolini, Giulio, 2023. "The maturity composition of government debt: A comprehensive database," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    4. Fabrizio Casalin & Floriana Cerniglia & Enzo Dia, 2021. "Stock-flow adjustments and interest costs in public debt dynamics," CRANEC - Working Papers del Centro di Ricerche in Analisi economica e sviluppo economico internazionale crn2102, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Centro di Ricerche in Analisi economica e sviluppo economico internazionale (CRANEC).
    5. Plessen-Mátyás, Katharina & Kaufmann, Christoph & von Landesberger, Julian, 2021. "Funding behaviour of debt management offices and the ECB’s public sector purchase programme," Working Paper Series 2552, European Central Bank.
    6. Dallal Bendjellal, 2022. "Sovereign Risk, Financial Fragility and Debt Maturity," AMSE Working Papers 2222, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Maturity; Euro-area public debt auctions; Yield curve; Liquidity services of short debt; Risk aversion; Expected repayment probability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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