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The Maturity of Sovereign Debt Issuance in the Euro Area

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  • Beetsma, Roel
  • de Jong, Frank
  • Giuliodori, Massimo
  • Hanson, Jesper

Abstract

We use information on new sovereign debt issues in the euro area to explore the drivers behind the debt maturity decisions of governments. We set up a theoretical model for the maturity structure that trades off preference for liquidity services of short-term debt, roll-over risk and price risk. The average debt maturity is negatively related to both the level and the slope of the yield curve. A panel VAR analysis shows that positive shocks to risk aversion, the probability of non-repayment and the demand for the liquidity services of short-term debt all have a positive effect on the yield curve level and slope, and a negative effect on the average maturity of new debt issues. These results are partially in line with our theory. A forecast error variance decomposition suggests that changes in non-repayment risk as captured by credit default spreads are the most important source of shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Beetsma, Roel & de Jong, Frank & Giuliodori, Massimo & Hanson, Jesper, 2019. "The Maturity of Sovereign Debt Issuance in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 13729, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13729
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    Cited by:

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    2. Fabrizio Casalin & Floriana Cerniglia & Enzo Dia, 2021. "Stock-flow adjustments and interest costs in public debt dynamics," CRANEC - Working Papers del Centro di Ricerche in Analisi economica e sviluppo economico internazionale crn2102, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Centro di Ricerche in Analisi economica e sviluppo economico internazionale (CRANEC).
    3. Dallal Bendjellal, 2022. "Sovereign Risk, Financial Fragility and Debt Maturity," AMSE Working Papers 2222, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    4. Plessen-Mátyás, Katharina & Kaufmann, Christoph & von Landesberger, Julian, 2021. "Funding behaviour of debt management offices and the ECB’s Public Sector Purchase Programme," Working Paper Series 2552, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro-area public debt auctions; expected repayment probability; liquidity services of short debt; Maturity; risk aversion; yield curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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