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Fiscal Insurance and Debt Management in OECD Economies

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Abstract

Assuming the role of debt management is to provide hedging against fiscal shocks we consider three questions: i) what indicators can be used to assess the performance of debt management? ii) how well have historical debt management policies performed? and iii) how is that performance affected by variations in debt issuance? We consider these questions using OECD data on the market value of government debt between 1970 and 2000. Motivated by both the optimal taxation literature and broad considerations of debt stability we propose a range of performance indicators for debt management. We evaluate these using Monte Carlo analysis and find that those based on the relative persistence of debt perform best. Calculating these measures for OECD data provides only limited evidence that debt management has helped insulate policy against unexpected fiscal shocks. We also find that the degree of fiscal insurance achieved is not well connected to cross country variations in debt issuance patterns. Given the limited volatility observed in the yield curve the relatively small dispersion of debt management practices across countries makes little difference to the realised degree of fiscal insurance.

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  • Albert Marcet & Elisa Faraglia & Andrew Scott, 2007. "Fiscal Insurance and Debt Management in OECD Economies," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 729.08, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
  • Handle: RePEc:aub:autbar:729.08
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    Cited by:

    1. Equiza-Goñi, Juan, 2016. "Government debt maturity and debt dynamics in euro area countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 292-311.
    2. Elisa Faraglia & Albert Marcet & Andrew Scott, 2012. "Debt management and optimal fiscal policy with long bonds," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Threat of fiscal dominance?, volume 65, pages 177-212 Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Marcet, Albert & Scott, Andrew, 2009. "Debt and deficit fluctuations and the structure of bond markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 473-501, March.
    4. Equiza-Goni, Juan & Faraglia, Elisa & Oikonomou, Rigas, 2016. "Union Debt Management," CEPR Discussion Papers 11181, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Faraglia, Elisa & Marcet, Albert & Oikonomou, Rigas & Scott, Andrew, 2014. "Government Debt Management: The Long and the Short of It," CEPR Discussion Papers 10281, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Faraglia, Elisa & Marcet, Albert & Scott, Andrew, 2010. "In search of a theory of debt management," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(7), pages 821-836, October.
    7. Campbell Leith & Eric Leeper, 2016. "Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary-Fiscal Phenomenon," Working Papers 2016_01, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    8. Elisa Faraglia & Albert Marcet & Rigas Oikonomou & Andrew Scott, 2014. "Government Debt Management: The Long and the Short of It (Plus Appendix)," Working Papers 799, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    9. Hans J. Blommestein & Anja Hubig, 2012. "A Critical Analysis of the Technical Assumptions of the Standard Micro Portfolio Approach to Sovereign Debt Management," OECD Working Papers on Sovereign Borrowing and Public Debt Management 4, OECD Publishing.
    10. Faraglia, Elisa & Marcet, Albert & Scott, Andrew, 2014. "Modelling Long Bonds - The Case of Optimal Fiscal Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 9965, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Rigas Oikonomou & Albert Marcet & Elisa Faraglia, 2016. "Long term Government Bonds," 2016 Meeting Papers 565, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Johannes Holler, 2013. "Funding Strategies of Sovereign Debt Management: A Risk Focus," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 51-74.
    13. repec:eee:macchp:v2-2305 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Melecky, Martin, 2012. "Formulation of public debt management strategies: An empirical study of possible drivers," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 218-234.
    15. Hans J Blommestein & Anja Hubig, 2012. "Is the standard micro portfolio approach to sovereign debt management still appropriate?," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Threat of fiscal dominance?, volume 65, pages 141-155 Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Renne, J-P., 2009. "Frequency-domain analysis of debt service in a macro-finance model for the euro area," Working papers 261, Banque de France.
    17. Juan Equiza Goni, 2014. "Sovereign Debt Maturity and Debt-to GDP Dynamics in Six Euro Area Countries," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-44, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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