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Sovereign Default and the Choice of Maturity

Author

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  • Sanchez, Juan M.

    () (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

  • Sapriza, Horacio

    (Federal Reserve Board)

  • Yurdagul, Emircan

    (Washington University in St. Louis)

Abstract

This study develops a novel model of endogenous sovereign debt maturity choice that rationalizes various stylized facts about debt maturity and the yield spread curve: first, sovereign debt duration and maturity generally exceed one year, and co-move positively with the business cycle. Second, sovereign yield spread curves are usually non-linear and upward-sloped, and may become non-monotonic and inverted during a period of high credit market stress, such as a default episode. Finally, output volatility, sudden stops, impatience and risk aversion are key determinants of maturity, both in our model and in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Sanchez, Juan M. & Sapriza, Horacio & Yurdagul, Emircan, 2014. "Sovereign Default and the Choice of Maturity," Working Papers 2014-31, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 24 Sep 2017.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2014-031
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2014.031
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gabriel Cuadra & Juan Sanchez & Horacio Sapriza, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and Default Risk in Emerging Markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(2), pages 452-469, April.
    2. Seon Tae Kim & Gabriel Mihalache & Yan Bai, 2014. "Maturity and Repayment Structure of Sovereign Debt," 2014 Meeting Papers 523, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2012. "Maturity, Indebtedness, and Default Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2674-2699, October.
    4. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & César Sosa-Padilla, 2016. "Debt Dilution and Sovereign Default Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(5), pages 1383-1422.
    5. Karen Kopecky & Richard Suen, 2010. "Finite State Markov-chain Approximations to Highly Persistent Processes," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(3), pages 701-714, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:macchp:v2-1697 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Leonardo Martinez & Juan Hatchondo, 2017. "Sovereign Cocos and the Reprofiling of Debt Payments," 2017 Meeting Papers 1435, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Seon Tae Kim & Gabriel Mihalache & Yan Bai, 2014. "Maturity and Repayment Structure of Sovereign Debt," 2014 Meeting Papers 523, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Aguiar, M. & Chatterjee, S. & Cole, H. & Stangebye, Z., 2016. "Quantitative Models of Sovereign Debt Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier.
    5. Grey Gordon & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2018. "Dynamics of Investment, Debt, and Default," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 28, pages 71-95, April.
    6. Gabriel Mihalache, 2017. "Sovereign Default Resolution Through Maturity Extension," Department of Economics Working Papers 17-08, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
    7. Bianchi, Javier & Mondragon, Jorge, 2018. "Monetary Independence and Rollover Crises," Working Papers 755, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt Crises; Restructuring; Yield Curves; Bond Duration; Debt Dilution.;

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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