The Term Structure of Country Risk and Valuation in Emerging Markets
Most practitioners add the country risk to the discount rate when valuing projects in Emerging Markets. This practice does not account for the fact that the default risk term structure can be nonflat. The mismatch between the duration of the project under valuation and the duration of the most widely used measure of country risk, J.P. Morgan’s EMBI, leads to an overvaluation (undervaluation) of long-term projects when the term structure of default risk is upward (downward) sloping. Using sovereign bond data from five Emerging Markets, we estimate a simple model that captures most of the variation of conditional default probabilities at different horizons for a given country at one point in time. This model can be used to solve the misestimation problem.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2002|
|Date of revision:||Apr 2002|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Vito Dumas 284, Victoria, Buenos Aires, B1644BID|
Web page: http://www.udesa.edu.ar
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005.
"Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March.
- Pablo Andres Neumeyer & Fabrizio Perri, 1999. "Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: the role of interest rates," Department of Economics Working Papers 014, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
- Pablo A. Neumeyer & Fabrizio Perri, 2001. "Business Cycles in Emerging Economies:The Role of Interest Rates," Working Papers 01-12, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Pablo A. Neumeyer & Fabrizio Perri, 2004. "Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 10387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pablo Neumeyer & Fabrizio Perri, 2004. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Staff Report 335, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Neumeyer, Pablo Andrés & Perri, Fabrizio, 2004. "Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4482, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lumsdaine, Robin L., 2002.
"Dating the integration of world equity markets,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 203-247, August.
- Tom Keck & Eric Levengood & AL Longfield, 1998. "Using Discounted Cash Flow Analysis In An International Setting: A Survey Of Issues In Modeling The Cost Of Capital," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 11(3), pages 82-99.
- Harvey, Campbell R, 1995.
"Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816.
- Chen, Houng-Yhi, 1967. "Valuation Under Uncertainty," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(03), pages 313-325, September.
- Stephen Godfrey & Ramon Espinosa, 1996. "A Practical Approach To Calculating Costs Of Equity For Investments In Emerging Markets," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 9(3), pages 80-90.
- Errunza, Vihang & Losq, Etienne, 1985. " International Asset Pricing under Mild Segmentation: Theory and Test," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 105-24, March.
- John J. Merrick Jr., 1999. "Crisis Dynamics of Implied Default Recovery Ratios: Evidence From Russia and Argentina," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-052, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sad:wpaper:46. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Tamara Sulaque)The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Tamara Sulaque to update the entry or send us the correct email address
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.