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The Term Structure of Country Risk and Valuation in Emerging Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Jose Cruces

    (Department of Economics, Universidad de San Andres)

  • Marcos Buscaglia

    (IAE)

  • Joaquin Alonso

    (Mercado Abierto S.A.)

Abstract

Most practitioners add the country risk to the discount rate when valuing projects in Emerging Markets. This practice does not account for the fact that the default risk term structure can be nonflat. The mismatch between the duration of the project under valuation and the duration of the most widely used measure of country risk, J.P. Morgan’s EMBI, leads to an overvaluation (undervaluation) of long-term projects when the term structure of default risk is upward (downward) sloping. Using sovereign bond data from five Emerging Markets, we estimate a simple model that captures most of the variation of conditional default probabilities at different horizons for a given country at one point in time. This model can be used to solve the misestimation problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Jose Cruces & Marcos Buscaglia & Joaquin Alonso, 2002. "The Term Structure of Country Risk and Valuation in Emerging Markets," Working Papers 46, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Apr 2002.
  • Handle: RePEc:sad:wpaper:46
    as

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    File URL: ftp://webacademicos.udesa.edu.ar/pub/econ/doc46.pdf
    File Function: Revised version, 2002
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Errunza, Vihang & Losq, Etienne, 1985. " International Asset Pricing under Mild Segmentation: Theory and Test," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 105-124, March.
    2. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816.
    3. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lumsdaine, Robin L., 2002. "Dating the integration of world equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 203-247, August.
    4. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March.
    5. Stephen Godfrey & Ramon Espinosa, 1996. "A Practical Approach To Calculating Costs Of Equity For Investments In Emerging Markets," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 9(3), pages 80-90.
    6. Tom Keck & Eric Levengood & AL Longfield, 1998. "Using Discounted Cash Flow Analysis In An International Setting: A Survey Of Issues In Modeling The Cost Of Capital," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 11(3), pages 82-99.
    7. Chen, Houng-Yhi, 1967. "Valuation Under Uncertainty," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(03), pages 313-325, September.
    8. John J. Merrick Jr., 1999. "Crisis Dynamics of Implied Default Recovery Ratios: Evidence From Russia and Argentina," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-052, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Javier Bianchi & Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez, 2012. "International Reserves and Rollover Risk," NBER Working Papers 18628, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Cesar Sosa-Padilla & Leonardo Martinez, 2010. "Debt dilution, overborrowing, and sovereign default risk," 2010 Meeting Papers 481, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Galo Nuño & Carlos Thomas, 2015. "Monetary policy and sovereign debt vulnerability," Working Papers 1517, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    4. Serafín Frache & Gabriel Katz, 2004. "Estimating a Risky Term Structure of Uruguayan Sovereign Bonds," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0304, Department of Economics - dECON.
    5. Hatchondo, Juan Carlos & Martinez, Leonardo, 2009. "Long-duration bonds and sovereign defaults," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 117-125, September.
    6. Hatchondo, Juan Carlos & Martinez, Leonardo & Sosa Padilla, César, 2014. "Voluntary sovereign debt exchanges," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 32-50.
    7. Leonardo Martinez & Juan Hatchondo, 2017. "Sovereign Cocos and the Reprofiling of Debt Payments," 2017 Meeting Papers 1435, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & César Sosa-Padilla, 2016. "Debt Dilution and Sovereign Default Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(5), pages 1383-1422.
    9. Mario Coccia, 2004. "Analysis of country risk and taxonomic arrangement," CERIS Working Paper 200414, Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY -NOW- Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY.
    10. Marcos A. Buscaglia, 2003. "The Political-Economy of Argentina???s Debacle," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-594, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    11. Mario Coccia, 2004. "Countrymetrics and economic performance evaluation of countries.A systemic approach," CERIS Working Paper 200413, Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY -NOW- Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY.
    12. Marcos Buscaglia, 2004. "The Political Economy of Argentina's Debacle," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 43-65.
    13. Brown, Christopher L. & Cavusgil, S. Tamer & Lord, A. Wayne, 2015. "Country-risk measurement and analysis: A new conceptualization and managerial tool," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 246-265.
    14. repec:eee:jimfin:v:81:y:2018:i:c:p:221-241 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging Economies; Cost of Capital; Default Risk;

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

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