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Monetary Independence and Rollover Crises

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  • Javier Bianchi
  • Jorge Mondragon

Abstract

This paper shows that the inability to use monetary policy for macroeconomic stabilization leaves a government more vulnerable to a rollover crisis. We study a sovereign default model with self-fulfilling rollover crises, foreign currency debt, and nominal rigidities. When the government lacks monetary independence, lenders anticipate that the government would face a severe recession in the event of a liquidity crisis, and are therefore more prone to run on government bonds. In a quantitative application, we find that the lack of monetary autonomy played a central role in making Spain vulnerable to a rollover crisis during 2011-2012. Finally, we argue that a lender of last resort can go a long way towards reducing the costs of giving up monetary independence.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Bianchi & Jorge Mondragon, 2018. "Monetary Independence and Rollover Crises," NBER Working Papers 25340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25340
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    Cited by:

    1. Javier Bianchi & Cesar Sosa-Padilla, 2018. "Reserve Accumulation, Macroeconomic Stabilization and Sovereign Risk," 2018 Meeting Papers 1166, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Javier Bianchi & Pablo Ottonello & Ignacio Presno, 2019. "Fiscal Stimulus under Sovereign Risk," NBER Working Papers 26307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Benjamin Born & Gernot Müller & Johannes Pfeifer & Susanne Wellmann, 2020. "Different No More: Country Spreads in Advanced and Emerging Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 8083, CESifo.
    4. Ioannis N. Kallianiotis & Iordanis Petsas, 2020. "The Effectiveness of the Single Mandate of the ECB and the Dual of the Fed," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(4), pages 1-11.
    5. Wolf, Martin, 2020. "Pecuniary externalities in economies with downward wage rigidity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 219-235.
    6. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Gabriel Mihalache, 2018. "Inflation Targeting with Sovereign Default Risk," Department of Economics Working Papers 18-14, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
    7. Michal Szkup, . "Preventing Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises: A Global Games Approach," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Sewon Hur & Illenin O. Kondo & Fabrizio Perri, 2018. "Real Interest Rates, Inflation, and Default," Staff Report 574, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    9. Wenxin Du & Carolin E. Pflueger & Jesse Schreger, 2020. "Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 3097-3138, December.
    10. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Maeng, Seung Hyun, 2020. "Debt Crises, Fast and Slow," CEPR Discussion Papers 14868, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Gabriel Mihalache, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Sovereign Risk in Emerging Economies (NK-Default)," Department of Economics Working Papers 19-02-rev1, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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