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Sovereign Risk, Currency Risk, and Corporate Balance Sheets

Author

Listed:
  • Wenxin Du

    (Federal Reserve Board)

  • Jesse Schreger

    (Harvard Business School, Business, Government and the International Economy Unit)

Abstract

We construct a new dataset of 14 emerging markets and show that sovereigns increasingly borrow from foreigners in local currency but the private sector continues to borrow in foreign currency. We show that a higher reliance on foreign currency corporate financing is associated with more sovereign default risk. We introduce local currency sovereign debt and private currency mismatch into a standard sovereign debt model to examine how the currency composition of corporate borrowing affects the sovereign's incentive to inflate or default. A calibration of the model generates the empirical patterns of currency and sovereign credit risk over the last decade.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenxin Du & Jesse Schreger, 2016. "Sovereign Risk, Currency Risk, and Corporate Balance Sheets," Harvard Business School Working Papers 17-024, Harvard Business School.
  • Handle: RePEc:hbs:wpaper:17-024
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    Cited by:

    1. Agustin S. Benetrix & Beren Demirolmez & Martin Schmitz, 2021. "The shock absorbing role of cross-border investments: net positions versus currency composition," Trinity Economics Papers tep0421, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    2. Mizen, Paul & Packer, Frank & Remolona, Eli & Tsoukas, Serafeim, 2021. "Original sin in corporate finance: New evidence from Asian bond issuers in onshore and offshore markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    3. D’Erasmo, Pablo & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2021. "History remembered: Optimal sovereign default on domestic and external debt," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 969-989.
    4. Amstad, Marlene & Packer, Frank & Shek, Jimmy, 2020. "Does sovereign risk in local and foreign currency differ?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    5. Pablo D'Erasmo & Enrique Mendoza, 2011. "Optimal Domestic (and External) Sovereign Default," PIER Working Paper Archive 16-019, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 04 Aug 2016.
    6. Bernoth, Kerstin & Herwartz, Helmut, 2021. "Exchange rates, foreign currency exposure and sovereign risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    7. Kohn, David & Leibovici, Fernando & Szkup, Michal, 2020. "Financial frictions and export dynamics in large devaluations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    8. Javier Bianchi & Jorge Mondragon, 2022. "Monetary Independence and Rollover Crises," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 137(1), pages 435-491.
    9. Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2020. "Currency Depreciation and Emerging Market Corporate Distress," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(5), pages 1935-1961, May.
    10. Gegenfurtner, Dennis Andreas, 2021. "The causes of Original Sin: An empirical investigation of emerging market and developing countries," IPE Working Papers 174/2021, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    11. Ahnert, Toni & Forbes, Kristin & Friedrich, Christian & Reinhardt, Dennis, 2021. "Macroprudential FX regulations: Shifting the snowbanks of FX vulnerability?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 145-174.
    12. Hale, Galina B. & Jones, Peter C. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2020. "Home currency issuance in international bond markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    13. Hari Venkatesh & Gourishankar S Hiremath, 2020. "Currency Mismatches In Emerging Market Economies: Is Winter Coming?," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 23(1), pages 25-54.
    14. Burger, John D. & Warnock, Francis E. & Warnock, Veronica Cacdac, 2018. "Currency matters: Analyzing international bond portfolios," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 376-388.
    15. Laura Alfaro & Fabio Kanczuk, 2019. "Debt Redemption and Reserve Accumulation," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(2), pages 261-287, June.
    16. Korinek, Anton, 2018. "Regulating capital flows to emerging markets: An externality view," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 61-80.
    17. José Antonio Morales Castro & Francisco López-Herrera, 2021. "Ganancias cambiarias en empresas mexicanas y variables fundamentales y económicas," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(2), pages 1-21, Abril - J.
    18. Hyeon‐seung Huh & David Kim, 2021. "The risk‐taking channel of currency appreciation: A structural VAR investigation of Asian emerging market economies," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 313-331, December.
    19. Bryan Hardy & Felipe Saffie, 2019. "From carry trades to trade credit: financial intermediation by non-financial corporations," BIS Working Papers 773, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Ogrokhina, Olena & Rodriguez, Cesar M., 2019. "The effect of inflation targeting and financial openness on currency composition of sovereign international debt," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 1-18.
    21. José Antonio Morales Castro & Francisco López-Herrera, 2021. "Ganancias cambiarias en empresas mexicanas y variables fundamentales y económicas," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(2), pages 1-21, Abril - J.
    22. Du, Wenxin & Im, Joanne & Schreger, Jesse, 2018. "The U.S. Treasury Premium," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 167-181.
    23. Hari Venkatesh & Gourishankar S. Hiremath, 2021. "The resurgence of currency mismatches: Emerging market economies are not out of the woods yet?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 721-742, October.

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