IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Debt Redemption and Reserve Accumulation

  • Laura Alfaro
  • Fabio Kanczuk

Foreign participation in local-currency bond markets in emerging countries has increased dramatically over the past decade. In light of this trend, we revisit sovereign debt sustainability and incentives to default when the sovereign is temporarily excluded from capital markets. Differently from previous analyses, we assume that in addition to accumulating international reserves, countries can borrow internationally using their own currency. As opposed to traditional sovereign debt models (all in foreign currency), the asset valuation effects occasioned by currency depreciation (or appreciation) act to absorb global shocks and render consumption smoother. In this setting, countries do not accumulate high levels of reserves to be depleted in “bad” times. Instead, issuing domestic debt while accumulating high levels of reserves acts as a hedge against negative external shocks. A quantitative exercise, in which our model matches features of the Brazilian economic fluctuations and exchange-rate volatility, suggests this strategy to be highly effective for smoothing consumption and reducing the occurrence of default.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at Free access is also available to older working papers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 19098.

in new window

Date of creation: Jun 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19098
Note: IFM
Contact details of provider: Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Annamaria Kokenyne & Romain Veyrune & Karl Friedrich Habermeier & Harald Anderson, 2009. "Revised System for the Classification of Exchange Rate Arrangements," IMF Working Papers 09/211, International Monetary Fund.
  2. John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock, 2006. "Local Currency Bond Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(si), pages 7.
  3. Singh, Rajesh & Lahiri, Amartya & Vegh, Carlos A, 2007. "Segmented Asset Markets and Optimal Exchange Rate Regimes," Staff General Research Papers 11446, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  4. Federico Sturzenegger & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2007. "Debt Defaults and Lessons from a Decade of Crises," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262195534, June.
  5. Alfaro, Laura & Kanczuk, Fabio, 2009. "Optimal reserve management and sovereign debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 23-36, February.
  6. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2003. "An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System," NBER Working Papers 9971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Burstein, Ariel T. & Neves, Joao C. & Rebelo, Sergio, 2003. "Distribution costs and real exchange rate dynamics during exchange-rate-based stabilizations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1189-1214, September.
  8. Reinhart, Carmen, 2008. "The Next (but not new) Frontier for Sovereign Default," MPRA Paper 11865, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Michael Devereux & Charles Engel, 2000. "Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revisited: Price Setting and Exchange Rate Flexibiity," Working Papers 0016, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  10. Benigno, Gianluca & Fornaro, Luca, 2012. "Reserve Accumulation, Growth and Financial Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 9224, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Joshua Aizenman & Michael Hutchison & Ilan Noy, 2008. "Inflation Targeting and Real Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 14561, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Helpman, Elhanan, 1981. "An Exploration in the Theory of Exchange-Rate Regimes," Scholarly Articles 3445091, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  13. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Vegh, Carlos, 1994. "Targeting the real exchange rate," MPRA Paper 13765, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza & Ernesto H. Stein, 2000. "Why Do Countries Float the Way They Float?," Research Department Publications 4205, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  15. Herschel I. Grossman & Taejoon Han, 1997. "Sovereign Debt and Consumption Smoothing," NBER Working Papers 5997, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Guillermo A. Calvo & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 99-118, Fall.
  17. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2007. "The Returns to Currency Speculation in Emerging Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 6148, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Alfaro, Laura & Kanczuk, Fabio, 2005. "Sovereign debt as a contingent claim: a quantitative approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 297-314, March.
  19. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2012. "Financial Intermediation, Exchange Rates, and Unconventional Policy in an Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 18431, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Dani Rodrik, 2006. "The social cost of foreign exchange reserves," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 253-266.
  21. Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri, 2004. "The international diversification puzzle is not as bad as you think," 2004 Meeting Papers 152, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  22. Joshua Aizenman & Michael M. Hutchison, 2010. "Exchange Market Pressure and Absorption by International Reserves: Emerging Markets and Fear of Reserve Loss During the 2008-09 Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2010. "This Time is Different Chartbook: Country Histories on Debt, Default, and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 15815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Tauchen, George, 1986. "Finite state markov-chain approximations to univariate and vector autoregressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-181.
  26. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2008. "Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves," NBER Working Papers 14217, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Alfaro, Laura & Kanczuk, Fabio, 2010. "Nominal versus indexed debt: A quantitative horse race," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1706-1726, December.
  28. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
  29. Herschel I. Grossman & John B. Van Huyck, 1985. "Sovereign Debt as a Contingent Claim: Excusable Default, Repudiation, and Reputation," NBER Working Papers 1673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19098. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.