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Is Inflation Default? The Role of Information in Debt Crises

Author

Listed:
  • Marco Bassetto
  • Carlo Galli

Abstract

We study the information sensitivity of government debt denominated in domestic versus foreign currency: the former is subject to inflation risk and the latter to default. Default only affects sophisticated bond traders, whereas inflation concerns a larger and less informed group. Within a two-period Bayesian trading game, differential information manifests itself in the secondary market, and we display conditions under which debt prices are more resilient to bad news even in the primary market, where only sophisticated players operate. Our results can explain debt prices across countries following the 2008 financial crisis, and also provide a theory of "original sin."

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Bassetto & Carlo Galli, 2019. "Is Inflation Default? The Role of Information in Debt Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(10), pages 3556-3584, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:109:y:2019:i:10:p:3556-84
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.20170721
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    Cited by:

    1. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2023. "Yet it Endures: The Persistence of Original Sin," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 1-42, February.
    2. Galli, Carlo, 2021. "Self-fulfilling debt crises, fiscal policy and investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. R. Anton Braun & Tomoyuki Nakajima, 2018. "Why Prices Don't Respond Sooner to a Prospective Sovereign Debt Crisis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 235-255, July.
    4. Elias Albagli & Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2021. "Dispersed Information and Asset Prices," Working Papers hal-03118639, HAL.
    5. Ricardo Reis, 2020. "The People versus the Markets: A Parsimonious Model of Inflation Expectations," Discussion Papers 2033, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    6. Elias Albagli & Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2024. "Information Aggregation with Asymmetric Asset Payoffs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(4), pages 2715-2758, August.
    7. Grace Weishi Gu & Zachary R. Stangebye, 2023. "Costly Information And Sovereign Risk," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1397-1429, November.
    8. Barthélemy, Jean & Mengus, Eric & Plantin, Guillaume, 2024. "The central bank, the treasury, or the market: Which one determines the price level?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    9. Veldkamp, Laura & Farboodi, Maryam, 2018. "Long Run Growth of Financial Data Technology," CEPR Discussion Papers 13278, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Albagli, Elias & Hellwig, Christian & Tsyvinski, Aleh, 2022. "Information Aggregation and Asymmetric Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 15644, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Javier Bianchi & Jorge Mondragon, 2022. "Monetary Independence and Rollover Crises," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(1), pages 435-491.
    12. Teupe, Sebastian, 2020. "Keynes, Inflation, and the Public Debt: "How to Pay for the War" as a Policy Prescription for Financial Repression?," Working Papers 16, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
    13. Maryam Farboodi & Laura Veldkamp, 2018. "Long Run Growth of Financial Data Technology," Working Papers 18-09, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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