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Why Prices Don't Respond Sooner to a Prospective Sovereign Debt Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • R. Anton Braun

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)

  • Tomoyuki Nakajima

    (University of Tokyo)

Abstract

Transactions costs associated with taking short positions on sovereign debt can have profound effects on government debt yields and the pattern of trade as a country moves toward default. To make this point we propose an equilibrium model of the sovereign debt market and fit the model to reproduce the dynamic path of 5-year Greek sovereign bond yields between 2008 and its credit event in 2012. We find that short-selling costs play a central role in accounting for the path of government bond yields and the pattern of movements in net credit default swap positions on Greek debt during this sample period. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • R. Anton Braun & Tomoyuki Nakajima, 2018. "Why Prices Don't Respond Sooner to a Prospective Sovereign Debt Crisis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 235-255, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:16-80
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2018.01.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Katagiri, Mitsuru & Konishi, Hideki & Ueda, Kozo, 2020. "Aging and deflation from a fiscal perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 1-15.
    2. Kosuke Aoki & Nao Sudo, 2012. "Asset Portfolio Choice of Banks and Inflation Dynamics," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 12-E-5, Bank of Japan.
    3. Kazumasa Oguro & Motohiro Sato, 2014. "Public debt accumulation and fiscal consolidation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(7), pages 663-673, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign debt crisis; Bond prices; Short-selling; Leverage; Heterogenous beliefs;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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