IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/col/000425/008583.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Who Saw Sovereign Debt Crises Coming?

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastián Nieto-Parra

    ()

Abstract

This paper studies sovereign debt crises during the period 1993-2006 through the prism of the primary sovereign bond market. It finds that one cannot reject the hypothesis that investment banks price sovereign default risk well before crises emerge and well before investors do. Investment banks charge a much higher underwriting fee between three years and one year before a crisis than they do during tranquil periods. This result is statistically significant after controlling for sovereign bond spreads and other variables. Moreover, investment banks´ behavior differs depending on the type of debt crisis. Before crises, investment banks charged on average a higher underwriting fee to countries presenting bad fundamentals than to other sovereign debt crisis countries. Finally, underwriting fees can be used as early warning indicators of debt crises. These results show that underwriting fees provide valuable information. It is puzzling that investors do not use this potentially useful public information in order to allocate efficiently their portfolios of emerging market fixed-income assets.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastián Nieto-Parra, 2009. "Who Saw Sovereign Debt Crises Coming?," ECONOMIA JOURNAL, THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2009), pages 125-169, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000425:008583
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://economia.lacea.org/contents.htm
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gelos, R. Gaston & Sahay, Ratna & Sandleris, Guido, 2011. "Sovereign borrowing by developing countries: What determines market access?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 243-254, March.
    2. Flandreau, Marc & Flores Zendejas, Juan Huitzilihuitl & Gaillard, Norbert, 2007. "Bonds and Brands: Lessons from the 1820s," CEPR Discussion Papers 6420, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Lin, Hsiou-wei & McNichols, Maureen F., 1998. "Underwriting relationships, analysts' earnings forecasts and investment recommendations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 101-127, February.
    4. Altinkilic, Oya & Hansen, Robert S, 2000. "Are There Economies of Scale in Underwriting Fees? Evidence of Rising External Financing Costs," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 191-218.
    5. Alexander Ljungqvist & Felicia Marston & William J. Wilhelm, 2006. "Competing for Securities Underwriting Mandates: Banking Relationships and Analyst Recommendations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 301-340, February.
    6. Hsuan-Chi Chen & Jay R. Ritter, 2000. "The Seven Percent Solution," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1105-1131, June.
    7. Ana Fostel & Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 2008. "Latin America´s Access to International Capital Markets: Good Behavior or Global Liquidity?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt- (ed.), Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 4, pages 117-158 Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Ciarlone, Alessio & Trebeschi, Giorgio, 2005. "Designing an early warning system for debt crises," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 376-395, December.
    9. Lee, Inmoo & et al, 1996. "The Costs of Raising Capital," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 19(1), pages 59-74, Spring.
    10. Jochen R. Andritzky, 2004. "Implied Default Probabilities and Default Recovery Ratios: An Analysis of Argentine Eurobonds 2000-2002," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 500, Econometric Society.
    11. Daniel J. Bradley & Bradford D. Jordan & Jay R. Ritter, 2003. "The Quiet Period Goes out with a Bang," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 1-36, February.
    12. Sebastian Edwards, 1983. "LDC's Foreign Borrowing and Default Risk: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 1172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    14. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2006. "Government finance in the wake of currency crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 401-440, April.
    15. Lily Hua Fang, 2005. "Investment Bank Reputation and the Price and Quality of Underwriting Services," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2729-2761, December.
    16. West, Richard R., 1967. "Determinants of Underwriters' Spreads on Tax Exempt Bond Issues," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(03), pages 241-263, September.
    17. Jorge Braga de Macedo & Helmut Reisen, 2003. "Float in Order to Fix?: Lessons from Emerging Markets for EU Accession Countries," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 218, OECD Publishing.
    18. Sebastián Nieto Parra & Javier Santiso, 2007. "The Usual Suspects: A Primer on Investment Banks' Recommendations and Emerging Markets," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 258, OECD Publishing.
    19. Fioramanti, Marco, 2008. "Predicting sovereign debt crises using artificial neural networks: A comparative approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 149-164, June.
    20. Manasse, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 2009. ""Rules of thumb" for sovereign debt crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 192-205, July.
    21. Andrea Pescatori & Amadou N R Sy, 2007. "Are Debt Crises Adequately Defined?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(2), pages 306-337, June.
    22. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
    23. Carter, Richard B & Manaster, Steven, 1990. " Initial Public Offerings and Underwriter Reputation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1045-1067, September.
    24. Edwards, Sebastian, 1984. "LDC Foreign Borrowing and Default Risk: An Empirical Investigation, 1976-80," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(4), pages 726-734, September.
    25. Bernhard Herz & Hui Tong, 2008. "Debt and Currency Crises-Complements or Substitutes?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(5), pages 955-970, November.
    26. Michaely, Roni & Womack, Kent L, 1999. "Conflict of Interest and the Credibility of Underwriter Analyst Recommendations," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 653-686.
    27. Eli M Remolona & Michela Scatigna & Eliza Wu, 2007. "Interpreting sovereign spreads," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    28. Megginson, William L & Weiss, Kathleen A, 1991. " Venture Capitalist Certification in Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 879-903, July.
    29. Flores, Juan-Huitzi, 2007. "Information asymmetries and financial intermediation during the Baring crisis : 1880-1890," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH wp07-16, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
    30. Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/221, International Monetary Fund.
    31. David A. Grigorian, 2003. "On the Determinants of First-Time Sovereign Bond Issues," IMF Working Papers 03/184, International Monetary Fund.
    32. Higgins, W. W. & Moore, B. J., 1980. "Market Structure versus Information Costs as Determinants of Underwriters' Spreads on Municipal Bonds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(01), pages 85-97, March.
    33. George A. Akerlof, 1970. "The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500.
    34. Kaminsky, Graciela L., 2006. "Currency crises: Are they all the same?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 503-527, April.
    35. James, Christopher, 1992. " Relationship-Specific Assets and the Pricing of Underwriter Services," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1865-1885, December.
    36. Arie Melnik & Doron Nissim, 2003. "Debt issue costs and issue characteristics in the Eurobond market," ICER Working Papers 09-2003, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    37. Miles Livingston & Robert E. Miller, 2000. "Investment Bank Reputation and the Underwriting of Nonconvertible Debt," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 29(2), Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:red:issued:16-80 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Marc Flandreau & Juan H. Flores & Norbert Gaillard & Sebastián Nieto-Parra, 2010. "The End of Gatekeeping: Underwriters and the Quality of Sovereign Bond Markets, 1815-2007," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, pages 53-92 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. R. Anton Braun & Tomoyuki Nakajima, 2011. "Making the Case for a Low Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution," KIER Working Papers 788, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    4. Werner, Richard A., 2014. "Enhanced Debt Management: Solving the eurozone crisis by linking debt management with fiscal and monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 443-469.
    5. Indalecio Perez & Pablo Castellanos & Jose Manuel Sanchez-Santos, 2013. "Risk premium as an economic policy objective: The Spanish case," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 2(3), pages 94-104.
    6. Marc Flandreau & Juan Flores & Norbert Gaillard & Sebastian Nieto-Parra, 2011. "The Changing Role of Global Financial Brands in the Underwriting of Foreign Government Debt (1815-2010)," IHEID Working Papers 15-2011, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    7. R. Anton Braun & Tomoyuki Nakajima, 2018. "Why Prices Don't Respond Sooner to a Prospective Sovereign Debt Crisis"," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 235-255, July.
    8. Flores Zendejas, Juan, 2015. "Capital Markets and Sovereign Defaults: A Historical Perspective," Working Papers unige:73325, University of Geneva, Paul Bairoch Institute of Economic History.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    sovereign debt crises; primary bond market; underwriter spread; information;

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000425:008583. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roberto Bernal). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.