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Debt and Currency Crises-Complements or Substitutes?

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  • Bernhard Herz
  • Hui Tong

Abstract

Debt and currency crises are closely interlinked through the government's intertemporal budget constraint. The default tax and the inflation/devaluation tax can be considered as alternative means of financing. Our empirical analysis finds that high-debt countries choose default rather than inflation/devaluation for financing, while a high money stock reduces the probability of debt crises. Further, we find strong evidence that debt and currency crises share common fundamental causes. Finally, there is a Granger causality running from debt crises to currency crises, but only weakly in the other direction. Copyright © 2008 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2008 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernhard Herz & Hui Tong, 2008. "Debt and Currency Crises-Complements or Substitutes?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(5), pages 955-970, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:16:y:2008:i:5:p:955-970
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Eichler, Stefan, 2012. "Financial crisis risk, ECB “non-standard” measures, and the external value of the euro," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 257-265.
    2. Karatas, B., 2014. "Financial crisis and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 41e463f0-e122-4379-8db5-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Eichler, Stefan & Karmann, Alexander & Maltritz, Dominik, 2009. "The ADR shadow exchange rate as an early warning indicator for currency crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1983-1995, November.
    4. Sebastián Nieto-Parra, 2009. "Who Saw Sovereign Debt Crises Coming?," ECONOMIA JOURNAL, THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2009), pages 125-169, August.
    5. Steiner, Andreas, 2013. "How central banks prepare for financial crises – An empirical analysis of the effects of crises and globalisation on international reserves," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 208-234.
    6. Stefan Eichler & Dominik Maltritz, 2011. "Stock Market‐Induced Currency Crises—A New Type of Twins," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 223-236, May.
    7. Rövekamp, Ingmar & Eichler, Stefan, 2016. "A market-based indicator of currency risk: Evidence from American Depositary Receipts," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145791, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. repec:eee:ecofin:v:44:y:2018:i:c:p:109-128 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Karatas, Bilge, 2013. "Three Sisters: The Interlinkage between Sovereign Debt, Currency and Banking Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 9369, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Eichler, Stefan & Hielscher, Kai, 2012. "Does the ECB act as a lender of last resort during the subprime lending crisis?: Evidence from monetary policy reaction models," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 552-568.

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