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Peut-on prévenir les crises financières ?

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  • Adil NAAMANE

Abstract

Les crises financières qui ont touché l’économie mondiale durant les dernières décennies ont suscité un intérêt particulier de la part des économistes et des décideurs politiques. L’ampleur de ces crises et leur aspect répétitif ont provoqué d’énormes préjudices un peu partout dans le monde. La crise financière qui a touché l’économie américaine et qui s’est propagée au reste du monde prouve que nous sommes toujours menacés par de nouvelles turbulences. Notre étude a pour objectif de montrer qu’avec des données ex ante de certaines variables jugées importantes dans les analyses théoriques des crises, on peut construire des signaux d’alarme qui se déclenchent lorsque la situation économique et financière d’un pays se dégrade. La plupart des indicateurs donnent de bons résultats que ce soit pour détecter les crises ou pour ne pas se déclencher sans raison. Donc, ils peuvent être utilisés comme indicateurs d’alerte et les gouvernements doivent surveiller leur évolution. Cela permettra de détecter les problèmes assez tôt et de prendre les mesures nécessaires pour y remédier, évitant ainsi l’aggravation de la situation qui peut mener à la crise. Les indicateurs qui prévoient le plus de crises sont M2/réserves en devises, le taux de change réel, les exportations, les dettes bancaires externes et les crédits internes en pourcentage du PIB alors que les moins performants sont ceux des réserves et des dépôts bancaires. Cette étude montre le rôle important de la détérioration de certaines variables dans l’avènement des crises et minimise donc le rôle d’évènements auto-réalisateurs.

Suggested Citation

  • Adil NAAMANE, 2012. "Peut-on prévenir les crises financières ?," Working Papers 2011-2012_7, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised May 2012.
  • Handle: RePEc:tac:wpaper:2011-2012_7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Crises financières; Indicateurs d'alerte; Méthode des signaux d'alerte;

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