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The ADR shadow exchange rate as an early warning indicator for currency crises

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  • Eichler, Stefan
  • Karmann, Alexander
  • Maltritz, Dominik

Abstract

We develop an indicator for currency crisis risk using price spreads between American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) and their underlyings. This risk measure represents the mean exchange rate ADR investors expect after a potential currency crisis or realignment. It makes crisis prediction possible on a daily basis as depreciation expectations are reflected in ADR market prices. Using daily data, we analyze the impact of several risk drivers related to standard currency crisis theories and find that ADR investors perceive higher currency crisis risk when export commodity prices fall, trading partners' currencies depreciate, sovereign yield spreads increase, or interest rate spreads widen.

Suggested Citation

  • Eichler, Stefan & Karmann, Alexander & Maltritz, Dominik, 2009. "The ADR shadow exchange rate as an early warning indicator for currency crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1983-1995, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:33:y:2009:i:11:p:1983-1995
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Park, Cyn-Young & Mercado, Rogelio V., 2014. "Determinants of financial stress in emerging market economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 199-224.
    2. Chen, Mei-ping & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Hsu, Yi-Chung, 2011. "The impact of American depositary receipts on the Japanese index: Do industry effect and size effect matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 526-539, January.
    3. Esaka, Taro, 2010. "De facto exchange rate regimes and currency crises: Are pegged regimes with capital account liberalization really more prone to speculative attacks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1109-1128, June.
    4. Rövekamp, Ingmar & Eichler, Stefan, 2016. "A market-based indicator of currency risk: Evidence from American Depositary Receipts," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145791, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Kadapakkam, Palani-Rajan & Meisami, Alex & Shi, Yilun, 2010. "Lost in translation: Delayed ex-dividend price adjustments of Hong Kong ADRs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 647-655, March.
    6. Hales, Alma D. & Mollick, André V., 2014. "The impact of ADR activity on stock market liquidity: Evidence from Latin America," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 417-427.
    7. Tim Leung & Jamie Kang, 2016. "Asynchronous ADRs: Overnight vs Intraday Returns and Trading Strategies," Papers 1611.03110, arXiv.org.
    8. Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat & Yang, Ting, 2010. "Speed of convergence to market efficiency for NYSE-listed foreign stocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 594-605, March.

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