The ADR shadow exchange rate as an early warning indicator for currency crises
We develop an indicator for currency crisis risk using price spreads between American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) and their underlyings. This risk measure represents the mean exchange rate ADR investors expect after a potential currency crisis or realignment. It makes crisis prediction possible on a daily basis as depreciation expectations are reflected in ADR market prices. Using daily data, we analyze the impact of several risk drivers related to standard currency crisis theories and find that ADR investors perceive higher currency crisis risk when export commodity prices fall, trading partners' currencies depreciate, sovereign yield spreads increase, or interest rate spreads widen.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Patricia Alvarez-Plata & Mechthild Schrooten, 2006.
"The Argentinean Currency Crisis: A Markov-Switching Model Estimation,"
The Developing Economies,
Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 44(1), pages 79-91.
- Patricia Alvarez-Plata & Mechthild Schrooten, 2003. "The Argentinean Currency Crisis: A Markov-Switching Model Estimation," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 348, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K, 1998.
"Contagion and Trade: Why are Currency Crises Regional,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1947, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August.
- Reuven Glick & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Contagion and Trade: Why Are Currency Crises Regional?," NBER Working Papers 6806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reuven Glick & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Contagion and trade: why are currency crises regional?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 98-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Bernhard Herz & Hui Tong, 2008. "Debt and Currency Crises-Complements or Substitutes?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(5), pages 955-970, November.
- Detragiache, Enrica & Spilimbergo, Antonio, 2004. "Empirical models of short-term debt and crises: Do they test the creditor run hypothesis?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 379-389, April.
- Cashin, Paul & Cespedes, Luis F. & Sahay, Ratna, 2004.
"Commodity currencies and the real exchange rate,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 239-268, October.
- Pasquariello, Paolo, 2008. "The anatomy of financial crises: Evidence from the emerging ADR market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 193-207, December.
- Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997.
"Leading indicators of currency crises,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
1852, The World Bank.
- Kristina Kittelmann & Marcel Tirpak & Rainer Schweickert & Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, 2006.
"From Transition Crises to Macroeconomic Stability? Lessons from a Crises Early Warning System for Eastern European and CIS Countries,"
Kiel Working Papers
1269, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Kristina Kittelmann & Marcel Tirpak & Rainer Schweickert & L�cio Vinhas De Souza, 2006. "From Transition Crises to Macroeconomic Stability? Lessons from a Crises Early Warning System for Eastern European and CIS Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(3), pages 410-434, September.
- Moshirian, Fariborz & Wu, Qiongbing, 2009. "Banking industry volatility and banking crises," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 351-370, April.
- Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006.
"Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March.
- Reint Gropp & Jukka Vesala & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2002. "Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2002. "Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility," Working Paper Series 0150, European Central Bank.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996.
"Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Michael Melvin, .
"A Stock Market Boom During a Financial Crisis? ADRs and capital outflows in Argentina,"
2133524, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University.
- Melvin, Michael, 2003. "A stock market boom during a financial crisis?: ADRs and capital outflows in Argentina," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 129-136, October.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996.
"The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jarl G. Kallberg & Paolo Pasquariello, 2005. "An Examination of the Asian Crisis: Regime Shifts in Currency and Equity Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 169-212, January.
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014.
"A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Asli DemirgÃ¼Ã§-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
- Axel Dreher & Bernhard Herz & Volker Karb, 2006.
"Is there a causal link between currency and debt crises?,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 305-325.
- Axel Dreher & Bernhard Herz & Volker Karb, 2004. "Is There a Causal Link between Currency and Debt Crises?," International Finance 0404005, EconWPA, revised 16 Feb 2005.
- Axel Dreher & Bernhard Herz & Volker Karb, 2005. "Is There a Causal Link between Currency and Debt Crisis?," TWI Research Paper Series 3, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Robin L. Lumsdaine, 1998.
"Dating the Integration of World Equity Markets,"
NBER Working Papers
6724, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sebastian Auguste & Kathryn M.E. Dominguez & Herman Kamil & Linda L. Tesar, 2005.
"Cross-Border Trading as a Mechanism for Implicit Capital Flight: ADRs and the Argentine Crisis,"
533, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Auguste, Sebastian & Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Kamil, Herman & Tesar, Linda L., 2006. "Cross-border trading as a mechanism for implicit capital flight: ADRs and the Argentine crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1259-1295, October.
- Diaz-Alejandro, Carlos, 1985. "Good-bye financial repression, hello financial crash," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 1-24.
- Chandar, Nandini & Patro, Dilip K. & Yezegel, Ari, 2009. "Crises, contagion and cross-listings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1709-1729, September.
- Chan, Justin S.P. & Hong, Dong & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2008. "A tale of two prices: Liquidity and asset prices in multiple markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 947-960, June.
- Miller, Victoria, 2000. "Central bank reactions to banking crises in fixed exchange rate regimes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 451-472, December.
- Benigno, Pierpaolo & Missale, Alessandro, 2004.
"High public debt in currency crises: fundamentals versus signaling effects,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 165-188, March.
- Benigno, Pierpaolo & Missale, Alessandro, 2001. "High Public Debt in Currency Crises: Fundamentals versus Signalling Effects," CEPR Discussion Papers 2862, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Arquette, Gregory C. & Brown Jr., William O. & Burdekin, Richard C.K., 2008. "US ADR and Hong Kong H-share discounts of Shanghai-listed firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1916-1927, September.
- Velasco, Andres, 1987. "Financial crises and balance of payments crises : A simple model of the southern cone experience," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 263-283, October.
- Kim, Minho & Szakmary, Andrew C. & Mathur, Ike, 2000. "Price transmission dynamics between ADRs and their underlying foreign securities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1359-1382, August.
- Claessens, Stijn & Pennacchi, George, 1996. "Estimating the Likelihood of Mexican Default from the Market Prices of Brady Bonds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 109-126, March.
- Warren Bailey & Kalok Chan & Y. Peter Chung, 2000. "Depositary Receipts, Country Funds, and the Peso Crash: The Intraday Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2693-2717, December.
- Akira Ariyoshi & Andrei Kirilenko & Inci Ã–tker & Bernard Laurens & Jorge IvÃ¡n Canales Kriljenko & Karl Friedrich Habermeier, 2000. "Capital Controls; Country Experiences with Their Use and Liberalization," IMF Occasional Papers 190, International Monetary Fund.
- Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Sergio Schmukler & Neeltje van Horen, 2003.
"The Price of Inconvertible Deposits: The Stock Market Boom during the Argentine crisis","
Business School Working Papers
diez, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
- Yeyati, Eduardo Levy & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Van Horen, Neeltje, 2004. "The price of inconvertible deposits: the stock market boom during the Argentine crisis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 7-13, April.
- Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Van Horen, Neeltje, 2003. "The price of inconvertible deposits - the stock market boom during the Argentine crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3146, The World Bank.
- Bai, Jushan & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1998.
"Testing for and Dating Common Breaks in Multivariate Time Series,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 395-432, July.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to demonstrate Bai, Lumsdaine, Stock common breaks in VAR," Statistical Software Components RTZ00171, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Bin, Feng-Shun & Blenman, Lloyd P. & Chen, Dar-Hsin, 2004. "Valuation impact of currency crises: Evidence from the ADR market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 411-432.
- Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Van Horen, Neeltje, 2009. "International financial integration through the law of one price: The role of liquidity and capital controls," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 432-463, July.
- Levine, Ross & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2007. "Migration, spillovers, and trade diversion: The impact of internationalization on domestic stock market activity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1595-1612, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:33:y:2009:i:11:p:1983-1995. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.