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Implied Default Probabilities and Default Recovery Ratios: An Analysis of Argentine Eurobonds 2000-2002

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  • Jochen R. Andritzky

Abstract

This paper calculates implied recovery rates and implied default probabilities in a risk neutral setting for Argentine US-Dollar Eurobonds during the Argentine crisis from 2000 to 2002. In a model which is related to Jarrow (1995), the hazard rate is modelled as risk neutral probability using the Gumbel probability distribution. The results show that implied probabilities roughly take five levels, allowing to cut the time frame analyzed into five periods. The jumps between the levels are associated with rating cuts in most cases. In 2000, the estimated location parameter of the Gumbel distribution makes a default event appear most probable after four to five years. Estimated recovery ratios range from above 50% in the beginning to an average of 25% in the end

Suggested Citation

  • Jochen R. Andritzky, 2004. "Implied Default Probabilities and Default Recovery Ratios: An Analysis of Argentine Eurobonds 2000-2002," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 500, Econometric Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecm:feam04:500
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    Cited by:

    1. Sebastián Nieto-Parra, 2009. "Who Saw Sovereign Debt Crises Coming?," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2009), pages 125-169, August.
    2. De Pooter, Michiel & Martin, Robert F. & Pruitt, Seth, 2018. "The Liquidity Effects of Official Bond Market Intervention," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 243-268, February.
    3. Sosa Navarro, Ramiro, 2005. "Default Recovery Rates and Implied Default Probability Estimations: Evidence from the Argentinean Crisis," MPRA Paper 11054, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ramiro Sosa Navarro, 2005. "Default Recovery Values and Implied Default Probabilities Estimations: Evidence from the Argentinean Crisis," Documents de recherche 05-21, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign default; credit risk;

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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