IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/inecon/v86y2012i2p252-268.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Duration of sovereign debt renegotiation

Author

Listed:
  • Bai, Yan
  • Zhang, Jing

Abstract

In the period since 1990, sovereign debt renegotiations take an average of five years for bank loans but only one year for bonds. We provide an explanation for this finding by highlighting one key difference between bank loans and bonds: bank loans are rarely traded, while bonds are heavily traded on the secondary market. In our theory, the secondary market plays a crucial information revelation role in shortening renegotiations. Consider a dynamic bargaining game with incomplete information between a government and creditors. The creditors' reservation value is private information, and the government knows only its distribution. Delays in reaching agreements arise in equilibrium because the government uses costly delays to screen the creditors' reservation value. When the creditors trade on the secondary market, the market price conveys information about their reservation value, which lessens the information friction and reduces the renegotiation duration. We find that the secondary market tends to increase the renegotiation payoff of the government but decrease that of the creditors while increasing the total payoff. We then embed these renegotiation outcomes in a simple sovereign debt model to analyze the ex ante welfare implications. The secondary market has the potential to increase the government ex ante welfare when the information friction is severe.

Suggested Citation

  • Bai, Yan & Zhang, Jing, 2012. "Duration of sovereign debt renegotiation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 252-268.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:86:y:2012:i:2:p:252-268
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2011.08.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199611001036
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yue, Vivian Z., 2010. "Sovereign default and debt renegotiation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 176-187, March.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters,in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Princeton University Press.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 1065-1188, November.
    4. Eichengreen, Barry & Kletzer, Kenneth & Mody, Ashoka, 2003. "Crisis Resolution: Next Steps," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt4cj974r4, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    5. Randall S. Kroszner, 2003. "Sovereign Debt Restructuring," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 75-79, May.
    6. Fernando Broner & Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2010. "Sovereign Risk and Secondary Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1523-1555, September.
    7. David Benjamin, 2008. "Recovery Before Redemption," 2008 Meeting Papers 531, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Weinschelbaum, Federico & Wynne, Jose, 2005. "Renegotiation, collective action clauses and sovereign debt markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 47-72, September.
    9. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1989. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 155-178, February.
    10. Ausubel, Lawrence M. & Cramton, Peter & Deneckere, Raymond J., 2002. "Bargaining with incomplete information," Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications,in: R.J. Aumann & S. Hart (ed.), Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 50, pages 1897-1945 Elsevier.
    11. Merlo, Antonio & Wilson, Charles A, 1995. "A Stochastic Model of Sequential Bargaining with Complete Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(2), pages 371-399, March.
    12. Cramton, Peter C & Tracy, Joseph S, 1992. "Strikes and Holdouts in Wage Bargaining: Theory and Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 100-121, March.
    13. Rohan Pitchford & Mark L. J. Wright, 2012. "Holdouts in Sovereign Debt Restructuring: A Theory of Negotiation in a Weak Contractual Environment," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 79(2), pages 812-837.
    14. Ran Bi, 2008. "“Beneficial” Delays in Debt Restructuring Negotiations," IMF Working Papers 08/38, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Nancy L. Stokey, 1981. "Rational Expectations and Durable Goods Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 12(1), pages 112-128, Spring.
    16. Haldane, Andrew G. & Penalver, Adrian & Saporta, Victoria & Shin, Hyun Song, 2005. "Analytics of sovereign debt restructuring," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 315-333, March.
    17. Juan Carlos Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2017. "Gambling for redemption and self-fulfilling debt crises," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(4), pages 707-740, December.
    18. Ran Bi, 2008. ""Beneficial" Delays in Debt Restructuring Negotiations," 2008 Meeting Papers 766, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Sturzenegger, Federico & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2008. "Haircuts: Estimating investor losses in sovereign debt restructurings, 1998-2005," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 780-805, September.
    20. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2000. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116.
    21. Acharya, Viral V. & Bharath, Sreedhar T. & Srinivasan, Anand, 2007. "Does industry-wide distress affect defaulted firms? Evidence from creditor recoveries," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(3), pages 787-821, September.
    22. Eberhart, Allan C & Sweeney, Richard J, 1992. " Does the Bond Market Predict Bankruptcy Settlements?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 943-980, July.
    23. Patrick Bolton & Olivier Jeanne, 2007. "Structuring and Restructuring Sovereign Debt: The Role of a Bankruptcy Regime," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(6), pages 901-924, December.
    24. Raquel Fernandez & Robert W. Rosenthal, 1990. "Strategic Models of Sovereign-Debt Renegotiations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(3), pages 331-349.
    25. Oliver Hart, 1989. "Bargaining and Strikes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(1), pages 25-43.
    26. Allen B. Frankel, 1985. "Some implications of the President's tax proposals for U.S. banks with claims on developing countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 263, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    27. Kenneth Kletzer, 2003. "Sovereign Bond Restructuring; Collective Action Clauses and official Crisis Intervention," IMF Working Papers 03/134, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
    29. Yan Bai & Jing Zhang, 2010. "Solving the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle With Financial Frictions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(2), pages 603-632, March.
    30. Joel Sobel & Ichiro Takahashi, 1983. "A Multistage Model of Bargaining," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(3), pages 411-426.
    31. Drew Fudenberg & David K. Levine & Jean Tirole, 1985. "Infinite-Horizon Models of Bargaining with One-Sided Incomplete Information," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1098, David K. Levine.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ghosal, Sayantan & Miller, Marcus & Thampanishvong, Kannika, 2010. "Delay and Haircuts in Sovereign Debt: Recovery and Sustainability," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-100, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    2. Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Grey Gordon, 2014. "Municipal Bonds, Default, and Migration in General Equilibrium," 2014 Meeting Papers 868, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Alonso-Ortiz, Jorge & Colla, Esteban & Da-Rocha, Jose-Maria, 2014. "Bounding the productivity default shock : Evidence from the The European Sovereign Debt Crisis," MPRA Paper 59617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Aguiar, Mark & Amador, Manuel, 2014. "Sovereign Debt," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier.
    5. repec:red:issued:14-216 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Broner, Fernando & Erce, Aitor & Martin, Alberto & Ventura, Jaume, 2014. "Sovereign debt markets in turbulent times: Creditor discrimination and crowding-out effects," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 114-142.
    7. repec:eee:macchp:v2-1697 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Engler, Philipp & Große Steffen, Christoph, 2016. "Sovereign risk, interbank freezes, and aggregate fluctuations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 34-61.
    9. Demian Pouzo & Ignacio Presno, 2015. "Optimal Taxation with Endogenous Default under Incomplete Markets," Papers 1508.03924, arXiv.org, revised May 2016.
    10. repec:eee:dyncon:v:83:y:2017:i:c:p:1-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Moraux, Franck & Silaghi, Florina, 2014. "Inside debt renegotiation: Optimal debt reduction, timing, and the number of rounds," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 269-295.
    12. Adelino, Manuel & Gerardi, Kristopher & Willen, Paul S., 2013. "Why don't Lenders renegotiate more home mortgages? Redefaults, self-cures and securitization," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 835-853.
    13. Ghosal, Sayantan & Miller, Marcus & Thampanishvong, Kannika, 2016. "Waiting for a haircut? A bargaining perspective on sovereign debt restructuring," CEPR Discussion Papers 11710, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. repec:eee:inecon:v:111:y:2018:i:c:p:190-213 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Aguiar, M. & Chatterjee, S. & Cole, H. & Stangebye, Z., 2016. "Quantitative Models of Sovereign Debt Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier.
    16. Fernando Broner & Aitor Erce & Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2013. "Sovereign Debt Markets in Turbulent Times; Creditor Discrimination and Crowding-Out," IMF Working Papers 13/270, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Stefan Avdjiev & Stephan Binder & Ricardo Sousa, 2017. "External debt composition and domestic credit cycles," BIS Working Papers 627, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador, 2013. "Sovereign Debt: A Review," NBER Working Papers 19388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Grey Gordon & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2018. "Dynamics of Investment, Debt, and Default," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 28, pages 71-95, April.
    20. Gabriel Mihalache, 2017. "Sovereign Default Resolution Through Maturity Extension," Department of Economics Working Papers 17-08, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign debt restructuring; Secondary debt markets; Dynamic bargaining; Incomplete information;

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:86:y:2012:i:2:p:252-268. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.