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Delay and Haircuts in Sovereign Debt: Recovery and Sustainability

  • Sayantan Ghosal
  • Marcus Miller
  • Kannika Thampanishvong

One of the striking aspects of recent sovereign debt restructurings is, conditional on default, delay length is positively correlated with the size of haircut. In this paper, we develop an incomplete information model of debt restructuring where the prospect of uncertain economic recovery and the signalling about sustainability concerns together gen?erate multi-period delay. The results from our analysis show that there is a correlation between delay length and size of haircut. Such results are supported by evidence. We show that Pareto ranking of equilibria, conditional on default, can be altered once we take into account the ex ante incentive of sovereign debtor. We use our results to evalu?ate proposals advocated to ensure orderly resolution of sovereign debt crises.

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Paper provided by Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CDMA Working Paper Series with number 201015.

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Date of creation: 15 Oct 2010
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Handle: RePEc:san:cdmawp:1015
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  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Rohan Pitchford & Mark L. J. Wright, 2008. "Holdouts In Sovereign Debt Restructuring: A Theory Of Negotiation In A Weak Contractual Environment," CAMA Working Papers 2008-37, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  3. Jeremy A.Rogoff Bulow & Kenneth, 1986. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt," University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State 43, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
  4. Ghosal, Sayantan & Thampanishvong, Kannika, 2009. "Does strengthening Collective Action Clauses (CACs) help?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 895, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  5. Weinschelbaum, Federico & Wynne, Jose, 2005. "Renegotiation, collective action clauses and sovereign debt markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 47-72, September.
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  7. Amrita Dhillon & Javier García-Fronti & Sayantan Ghosal & Marcus Miller, 2006. "Debt Restructuring and Economic Recovery: Analysing the Argentine Swap," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 377-398, 04.
  8. Ghosal, Sayantan & Miller, Marcus, 2003. "Coordination Failure, Moral Hazard and Sovereign Bankruptcy Procedures," CEPR Discussion Papers 3729, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  13. Miller, Marcus & Thomas, Dania, 2006. "Sovereign debt restructuring : the Judge, the vultures and creditor rights," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 757, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  14. Drew Fudenberg & Jean Tirole, 1991. "Game Theory," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061414, June.
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  16. Caballero, Ricardo, 2003. "On the international financial architecture: Insuring emerging markets," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 7, pages 8-12.
  17. Antonio Merlo & Charles Wilson, 1997. "Efficient delays in a stochastic model of bargaining," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 39-55.
  18. Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 690-712, June.
  19. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April.
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