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Duration of Sovereign Debt Renegotiation

Author

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  • Yan Bai

    (Arizona State University)

  • Jing Zhang

    (University of Michigan)

Abstract

The structure of sovereign debt has evolved over time from illiquid bank loans toward liquid bonds that are traded on the secondary market in the past two decades. This change in the debt structure is accompanied with a reduction in the duration of sovereign debt renegotiation; it takes on average 9 years to restructure bank loans, but only 1 year to restructure bonds. In this work, we argue that the secondary market plays an important role -- information revelation -- in reducing the renegotiation length. We construct a dynamic bargaining game between the government and the creditors with private information on the creditors' reservation value. The government uses costly delays as a screening device for the creditors' type, and so the delays arise in equilibrium. Moreover, the more severe is the private information, the longer the delays are. When we introduce the secondary market, the equilibrium delays are greatly reduced. This is because the secondary market price conveys information about the creditors' reservation and lessens the information friction. We also find that bond financing is more friendly to the debtor country; it increases ex-ante borrowing and investment and ex-post renegotiation welfare of the government.

Suggested Citation

  • Yan Bai & Jing Zhang, 2009. "Duration of Sovereign Debt Renegotiation," Working Papers 593, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  • Handle: RePEc:mie:wpaper:593
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    File URL: http://www.fordschool.umich.edu/rsie/workingpapers/Papers576-600/r593.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ghosal, Sayantan & Miller, Marcus & Thampanishvong, Kannika, 2010. "Delay and Haircuts in Sovereign Debt: Recovery and Sustainability," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-100, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    2. Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Grey Gordon, 2014. "Municipal Bonds, Default, and Migration in General Equilibrium," 2014 Meeting Papers 868, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Alonso-Ortiz, Jorge & Colla, Esteban & Da-Rocha, Jose-Maria, 2014. "Bounding the productivity default shock : Evidence from the The European Sovereign Debt Crisis," MPRA Paper 59617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Aguiar, Mark & Amador, Manuel, 2014. "Sovereign Debt," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier.
    5. repec:red:issued:14-216 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Broner, Fernando & Erce, Aitor & Martin, Alberto & Ventura, Jaume, 2014. "Sovereign debt markets in turbulent times: Creditor discrimination and crowding-out effects," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 114-142.
    7. repec:eee:macchp:v2-1697 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Engler, Philipp & Große Steffen, Christoph, 2016. "Sovereign risk, interbank freezes, and aggregate fluctuations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 34-61.
    9. Demian Pouzo & Ignacio Presno, 2015. "Optimal Taxation with Endogenous Default under Incomplete Markets," Papers 1508.03924, arXiv.org, revised May 2016.
    10. repec:eee:dyncon:v:83:y:2017:i:c:p:1-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Moraux, Franck & Silaghi, Florina, 2014. "Inside debt renegotiation: Optimal debt reduction, timing, and the number of rounds," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 269-295.
    12. Adelino, Manuel & Gerardi, Kristopher & Willen, Paul S., 2013. "Why don't Lenders renegotiate more home mortgages? Redefaults, self-cures and securitization," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 835-853.
    13. Ghosal, Sayantan & Miller, Marcus & Thampanishvong, Kannika, 2016. "Waiting for a haircut? A bargaining perspective on sovereign debt restructuring," CEPR Discussion Papers 11710, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. repec:eee:inecon:v:111:y:2018:i:c:p:190-213 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Aguiar, M. & Chatterjee, S. & Cole, H. & Stangebye, Z., 2016. "Quantitative Models of Sovereign Debt Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier.
    16. Fernando Broner & Aitor Erce & Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2013. "Sovereign Debt Markets in Turbulent Times; Creditor Discrimination and Crowding-Out," IMF Working Papers 13/270, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Stefan Avdjiev & Stephan Binder & Ricardo Sousa, 2017. "External debt composition and domestic credit cycles," BIS Working Papers 627, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador, 2013. "Sovereign Debt: A Review," NBER Working Papers 19388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Grey Gordon & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2018. "Dynamics of Investment, Debt, and Default," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 28, pages 71-95, April.
    20. Gabriel Mihalache, 2017. "Sovereign Default Resolution Through Maturity Extension," Department of Economics Working Papers 17-08, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    sovereign debt renegotiation; secondary bond markets; dynamic bargaining; incomplete information;

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

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