IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/psewpa/hal-01157168.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Welfare Cost Of Inflation Risk Under Imperfect Insurance

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier Allais

    (Laboratoire de recherche sur la Consommation - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique)

  • Yann Algan

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Edouard Challe

    (CEREG - CEREG - Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur l'Espace Germanophone - EA 4223 - Université Sorbonne Nouvelle - Paris 3 - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre)

  • Xavier Ragot

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

What are the costs of inflation fluctuations and who bears those costs? In this paper, we investigate this question by means of a quantitative incomplete-market, heterogenous-agent model wherein households hold real and nominal assets and are subject to both idiosyncratic labor income shocks and aggregate inflation risk. A key feature of our analysis is a nonhomothetic speci cation for households' preferences towards money and consumption goods. Unlike traditional speci cations, ours allows the model to reproduce the broad features of the distribution of monetary assets (in addition to being consistent with the distribution of nonmonetary assets). Inflation risk is found to generate signifi cant welfare losses for most households, i.e., between 1 and 1.5 percent of permanent consumption. The loss is small or even negative for households at the very top of the productivity and/or wealth distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Allais & Yann Algan & Edouard Challe & Xavier Ragot, 2015. "The Welfare Cost Of Inflation Risk Under Imperfect Insurance," PSE Working Papers hal-01157168, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:psewpa:hal-01157168
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01157168
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-01157168/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aleksander Berentsen & Gabriele Camera & C hristopher W aller, 2005. "The Distribution Of Money Balances And The Nonneutrality Of Money," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(2), pages 465-487, May.
    2. Challe, Edouard & Le Grand, François & Ragot, Xavier, 2013. "Incomplete markets, liquidation risk, and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(6), pages 2483-2519.
    3. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2000. "Sticky Price Models of the Business Cycle: Can the Contract Multiplier Solve the Persistence Problem?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1151-1180, September.
    4. Yann Algan & Edouard Challe & Xavier Ragot, 2011. "Incomplete markets and the output–inflation tradeoff," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 46(1), pages 55-84, January.
    5. Chari, V. V. & Christiano, Lawrence J. & Kehoe, Patrick J., 1996. "Optimality of the Friedman rule in economies with distorting taxes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 203-223, April.
    6. Vincenzo Quadrini, 2000. "Entrepreneurship, Saving and Social Mobility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(1), pages 1-40, January.
    7. Imrohoroglu, Ayse, 1992. "The welfare cost of inflation under imperfect insurance," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 79-91, January.
    8. Akyol, Ahmet, 2004. "Optimal monetary policy in an economy with incomplete markets and idiosyncratic risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1245-1269, September.
    9. Krusell, Per & Smith, Anthony A., 1997. "Income And Wealth Heterogeneity, Portfolio Choice, And Equilibrium Asset Returns," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(2), pages 387-422, June.
    10. Jonathan Heathcote, 2005. "Fiscal Policy with Heterogeneous Agents and Incomplete Markets," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(1), pages 161-188.
    11. Cooley, Thomas F & Hansen, Gary D, 1989. "The Inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 733-748, September.
    12. Otrok, Christopher, 2001. "On measuring the welfare cost of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 61-92, February.
    13. Ragot, Xavier, 2014. "The case for a financial approach to money demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 94-107.
    14. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1994. "Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(3), pages 659-684.
    15. Yann Algan & Xavier Ragot, 2010. "Monetary policy with Heterogeneous Agents and Borrowing Constraints," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(2), pages 295-316, April.
    16. Matthias Doepke & Martin Schneider, 2006. "Inflation and the Redistribution of Nominal Wealth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(6), pages 1069-1097, December.
    17. Yann Algan & Xavier Ragot, 2010. "Monetary policy with Heterogeneous Agents and Borrowing Constraints," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(2), pages 295-316, April.
    18. Yann Algan & Edouard Challe & Xavier Ragot, 2011. "Incomplete markets and the output-inflation tradeoff," Post-Print halshs-00654652, HAL.
    19. Carl E. Walsh, 2010. "Monetary Theory and Policy, Third Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 3, volume 1, number 0262013770, April.
    20. Krusell, Per & Mukoyama, Toshihiko & Smith Jr., Anthony A., 2011. "Asset prices in a Huggett economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 812-844, May.
    21. Matthias Doepke & Martin Schneider, 2006. "Aggregate Implications of Wealth Redistribution: The Case of Inflation," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 493-502, 04-05.
    22. Per Krusell & Toshihiko Mukoyama & Aysegul Sahin & Anthony A. Smith, Jr., 2009. "Revisiting the Welfare Effects of Eliminating Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(3), pages 393-402, July.
    23. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-00944920 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Imrohoruglu, Ayse, 1989. "Cost of Business Cycles with Indivisibilities and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1364-1383, December.
    25. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2003. "Macroeconomic Priorities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 1-14, March.
    26. Storesletten, Kjetil & Telmer, Chris I. & Yaron, Amir, 2001. "The welfare cost of business cycles revisited: Finite lives and cyclical variation in idiosyncratic risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1311-1339.
    27. Timothy J. Kehoe & David K. Levine & Michael Woodford, 1990. "The optimum quantity of money revisited," Working Papers 404, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    28. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4077 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. David Domeij & Jonathan Heathcote, 2004. "On The Distributional Effects Of Reducing Capital Taxes," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 523-554, May.
    30. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/58mqn6l8gc96n8lujj5560pkuf is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Tom Krebs, 2003. "Human Capital Risk and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(2), pages 709-744.
    32. Yann Algan & Xavier Ragot, 2010. "Monetary policy with Heterogeneous Agents and Borrowing Constraints," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00754461, HAL.
    33. Heer, Burkhard & Maußner, Alfred, 2012. "The Burden Of Unanticipated Inflation: Analysis Of An Overlapping-Generations Model With Progressive Income Taxation And Staggered Prices," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 278-308, April.
    34. Yann Algan & Xavier Ragot, 2010. "Monetary policy with Heterogeneous Agents and Borrowing Constraints," Post-Print halshs-00754461, HAL.
    35. Tom Krebs, 2003. "Growth and Welfare Effects of Business Cycles in Economies with Idiosyncratic Human Capital Risk," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 846-868, October.
    36. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith & Jr., 1998. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 867-896, October.
    37. Young, Eric R., 2010. "Solving the incomplete markets model with aggregate uncertainty using the Krusell-Smith algorithm and non-stochastic simulations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 36-41, January.
    38. Yann Algan & Edouard Challe & Xavier Ragot, 2011. "Incomplete markets and the output-inflation tradeoff," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00654652, HAL.
    39. Erosa, Andres & Ventura, Gustavo, 2002. "On inflation as a regressive consumption tax," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 761-795, May.
    40. Holman, Jill A, 1998. "GMM Estimation of a Money-in-the-Utility-Function Model: The Implications of Functional Forms," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(4), pages 679-698, November.
    41. Heer, Burkhard & Maußner, Alfred, 2012. "The Burden Of Unanticipated Inflation: Analysis Of An Overlapping-Generations Model With Progressive Income Taxation And Staggered Prices," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 278-308, April.
    42. Tullio Jappelli, 1990. "Who is Credit Constrained in the U. S. Economy?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(1), pages 219-234.
    43. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3ao9avev669hj9hvol1l0lr6im is not listed on IDEAS
    44. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4vm8e5vhjr99cb1ekr86bivlk0 is not listed on IDEAS
    45. Huggett, Mark, 1993. "The risk-free rate in heterogeneous-agent incomplete-insurance economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(5-6), pages 953-969.
    46. Scheinkman, Jose A & Weiss, Laurence, 1986. "Borrowing Constraints and Aggregate Economic Activity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(1), pages 23-45, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Curran, Michael & Dressler, Scott J., 2020. "Preferences, inflation, and welfare," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/562ju27dra9dnp6j4nvhq0tgfq is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/562ju27dra9dnp6j4nvhq0tgfq is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Olivier Allais & Yann Algan & Edouard Challe & Xavier Ragot, 2020. "The Welfare Cost of Inflation Risk under Imperfect Insurance," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 138, pages 1-20.
    4. Yann Algan & Olivier Allais & Edouard Challe & Xavier Ragot, 2012. "Monetary Shocks Under Incomplete Markets," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01169658, HAL.
    5. Yann Algan & Olivier Allais & Edouard Challe & Xavier Ragot, 2016. "The Welfare Cost of Inflation Risk Under Imperfect Insurance," Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers 2016-08, Sciences Po Departement of Economics.
    6. Olivier Allais & Yann Algan & Edouard Challe & Xavier Ragot, 2015. "The Welfare Cost of Inflation Risk Under Imperfect Insurance," Working Papers hal-01169656, HAL.
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1j0a1p4ifa98paomt4907gu4qo is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1j0a1p4ifa98paomt4907gu4qo is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4331vs7k488ou947ueeh5laj5l is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/4331vs7k488ou947ueeh5laj5l is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Yann Algan & Olivier Allais & Edouard Challe & Xavier Ragot, 2012. "Monetary Shocks Under Incomplete Markets," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1j0a1p4ifa9, Sciences Po.
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3ao9avev669hj9hvol1l0lr6im is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Yann Algan & Xavier Ragot, 2010. "Monetary policy with Heterogeneous Agents and Borrowing Constraints," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(2), pages 295-316, April.
    14. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3ao9avev669hj9hvol1l0lr6im is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Ragot, Xavier, 2014. "The case for a financial approach to money demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 94-107.
    16. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4vm8e5vhjr99cb1ekr86bivlk0 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Wen, Yi, 2015. "Money, liquidity and welfare," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-24.
    18. Desbonnet, Audrey & Kankanamge, Sumudu, 2017. "Public Debt And Aggregate Risk," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(8), pages 1996-2032, December.
    19. Edouard Challe & Xavier Ragot, 2010. "Aggregate Consumption in Times of Crisis: The Role of Financial Frictions -super-1," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 56(4), pages 627-648, December.
    20. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4vm8e5vhjr99cb1ekr86bivlk0 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Yi Wen, 2012. "Liquidity and welfare," Working Papers 2012-037, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    22. Yann Algan & Xavier Ragot, 2010. "Monetary policy with Heterogeneous Agents and Borrowing Constraints," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(2), pages 295-316, April.
    23. Florin Bilbiie & Xavier Ragot, 2021. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Liquidity with Heterogeneous Households," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 41, pages 71-95, July.
    24. Krueger, D. & Mitman, K. & Perri, F., 2016. "Macroeconomics and Household Heterogeneity," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 843-921, Elsevier.
    25. Sunel, Enes, 2012. "Transitional Dynamics of Disinflation in a Small Open Economy with Heterogeneous Agents," MPRA Paper 39690, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. François Grand & Xavier Ragot, 2016. "Incomplete markets and derivative assets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(3), pages 517-545, August.
    27. Yann Algan & Xavier Ragot, 2005. "Monetary policy with heterogenous agents and credit constraints," PSE Working Papers halshs-00590565, HAL.
    28. Yann Algan & Edouard Challe & Xavier Ragot, 2011. "Incomplete markets and the output–inflation tradeoff," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 46(1), pages 55-84, January.
    29. Jonathan Heathcote & Kjetil Storesletten & Giovanni L. Violante, 2009. "Quantitative Macroeconomics with Heterogeneous Households," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 319-354, May.
    30. Enes Sunel, 2018. "Welfare Consequences of Gradual Disinflation in Emerging Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(4), pages 705-755, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money-in-the-utility; incomplete markets; inflation risk; welfare.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:psewpa:hal-01157168. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.