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The Chilean Business Cycles Through the Lens of a Stochastic General Equilibrium Model


  • Juan Pablo Medina
  • Claudio Soto


This paper uses an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with nominal and real rigidities, to describe the sources of business cycle fluctuations in Chile. Our results show that foreign shocks and domestic supply shock account for a large share of output fluctuations over the last 20 years. Relatively tight domestic monetary conditions have contributed to contain inflationary pressures arising from other shocks, namely a slowdown in productivity by mid 90s. Foreign factors are also behind the large swings exhibited by the real exchange rate, although a monetary contraction in 1998 explains part of the delayed adjustment of the exchange rate in response to effects of the Asian crisis. The tight monetary policy around 1998 also contributes to the slow recovery of the employment afterwards.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Pablo Medina & Claudio Soto, 2007. "The Chilean Business Cycles Through the Lens of a Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 457, Central Bank of Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:457

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Juan Pablo Medina & Anella Munro & Claudio Soto, 2008. "What Drives the Current Account in Comodity Exporting Countries? The Cases of Chile and New Zealand," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt- (ed.), Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 10, pages 369-434 Central Bank of Chile.
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    Cited by:

    1. Adnan Haider & Musleh ud Din & Ejaz Ghani, 2012. "Monetary Policy, Informality and Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Developing Economy Vulnerable to External Shocks," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 609-681.
    2. Medina, Juan Pablo & Soto, Claudio, 2016. "Commodity prices and fiscal policy in a commodity exporting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 335-351.
    3. Jarkko Jääskelä & Kristoffer Nimark, 2008. "A Medium-scale Open Economy Model of Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2008-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    4. Marco Airaudo & Edward F Buffie & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2016. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management In Less Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 16/55, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2011. "Recessions and Financial Disruptions in Emerging Markets: A Bird’s Eye View," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Diego Saravia (ed.), Monetary Policy under Financial Turbulence, edition 1, volume 16, chapter 4, pages 059-104 Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Tony Hall & Jan Jacobs & Adrian Pagan, "undated". "Macro-Econometric System Modelling @75," NCER Working Paper Series 95, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    7. David Coble & Sebastián Faúndez, 2016. "The labor wedge and business cycles in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 19(1), pages 38-56, April.
    8. repec:eee:inecon:v:108:y:2017:i:c:p:351-367 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. K. Istrefi & B. Vonnak, 2015. "Delayed Overshooting Puzzle in Structural Vector Autoregression Models," Working papers 576, Banque de France.
    10. Felipe Morandé L. & Mauricio Tejada G., 2009. "Persistent Supply Shocks: A Pain in the Neck for Central Banks?," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 12(3), pages 25-58, December.
    11. Kulish, Mariano & Rees, Daniel M., 2017. "Unprecedented changes in the terms of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 351-367.
    12. Wieland, Volker & Cwik, Tobias & Müller, Gernot J. & Schmidt, Sebastian & Wolters, Maik, 2012. "A new comparative approach to macroeconomic modeling and policy analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 523-541.
    13. Minella, André & Souza-Sobrinho, Nelson F., 2013. "Monetary policy channels in Brazil through the lens of a semi-structural model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 405-419.
    14. Caputo, Rodrigo & Herrera, Luis Oscar, 2017. "Following the leader? The relevance of the Fed funds rate for inflation targeting countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 25-52.
    15. Javier Garcia-Cicco, 2011. "On the Quantitative Effects of Unconventional Monetry Policies in Small Open Economies," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 53-115, March.
    16. Schmidt, Sebastian & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "The New Keynesian Approach to Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling: Models, Methods and Macroeconomic Policy Evaluation," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
    17. Camila Figueroa & Pablo García, 2017. "Desafíos de la Política Monetaria Sistemática," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 64, Central Bank of Chile.
    18. Rodrigo Caputo G. & Marco Núñez N, 2008. "Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Chile: Alternative Approaches," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(2), pages 59-77, August.
    19. Andrés Fernández & Andrés González & Diego Rodríguez, 2015. "Sharing a Ride on the Commodities Roller Coaster: Common Factors in Business Cycles of Emerging Economies," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 014054, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    20. Carlos Garcia & Pablo Gonzalez & Antonio Moncado, 2010. "Proyecciones Macroeconómicas en Chile: Una Aproximación Bayesiana," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv262, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
    21. José De Gregorio, 2009. "La Macroeconomía, los Economistas y la Crisis," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 46(134), pages 149-159.
    22. Carlos J. García & Pablo González M. & Antonio Moncado S., 2013. "Macroeconomic Forecasting in Chile: a Structural Bayesian Approach," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 16(1), pages 24-63, April.
    23. repec:eee:jimfin:v:81:y:2018:i:c:p:159-184 is not listed on IDEAS

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