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Commodity prices and the business cycle in Latin America: Living and dying by commodities

Author

Listed:
  • Maximo Camacho

    () (Universidad de Murcia)

  • Gabriel Perez-Quiros

    () (Banco de España and CEPR)

Abstract

We analyze the dynamic interactions between commodity prices and output growth of the seven biggest Latin American exporters: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela. Using a novel defi nition of Markovswitching impulse response functions, we fi nd that the response of their respective output growth to commodity price shocks is time-dependent, size-dependent and sign-dependent. Overall, the major evidence of asymmetries in output growth responses occurs when commodity price shocks lead to regime shifts. Accordingly, we consider that the design of optimal counter-cyclical stabilization policies in this region should take into account that the reactions of economic activity vary considerably across business cycle regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2013. "Commodity prices and the business cycle in Latin America: Living and dying by commodities," Working Papers 1304, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1304
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Karamé, F., 2012. "An algorithm for generalized impulse-response functions in Markov-switching structural VAR," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 230-234.
    2. Ercio Muñoz S. & Mariel C. Siravegna, 2013. "¿Tiene un Impacto el Precio de las Materias Primas Sobre las Bolsas de América Latina?," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 16(3), pages 102-118, December.
    3. Khalifa, Ahmed & Caporin, Massimiliano & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2015. "Spillovers between energy and FX markets: The importance of asymmetry, uncertainty and business cycle," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 72-82.
    4. Aviral K. Tiwari & Claudiu T. Albulescu & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Time-frequency relationship between US output with commodity and asset prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(3), pages 227-242, January.
    5. Ftiti, Zied & Kablan, Sandrine & Guesmi, Khaled, 2016. "What can we learn about commodity and credit cycles? Evidence from African commodity-exporting countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 313-324.
    6. Karamé, Frédéric, 2015. "Asymmetries and Markov-switching structural VAR," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 85-102.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    commodities; business cycle; non linearities;

    JEL classification:

    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • Y - Miscellaneous Categories
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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