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An Overhaul of Doctrine: The Underpinning of UK Inflation Targeting

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  • Edward Nelson

Abstract

The inflation targeting regime prevailing in the UK is not the result of a change in policy maker objectives. Analysis of UK policymakers' statements demonstrates that objectives have been essentially unchanged over five decades. Instead, the crucial underpinning of UK inflation targeting is an overhaul of doctrine. This overhaul involves changes in policymakers' views regarding key IS and Phillips curve parameters. They particularly have involved whether levels terms (of the real interest rate and the output gap) appear in the curves. Contrary to conventional wisdom, changing views on the expected-inflation term in the Phillips curve do not play a role. Copyright © The Author(s). Journal compilation © Royal Economic Society 2009.

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  • Edward Nelson, 2009. "An Overhaul of Doctrine: The Underpinning of UK Inflation Targeting," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(538), pages 333-368, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:119:y:2009:i:538:p:f333-f368
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    Cited by:

    1. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 2011. "How Flexible Can Inflation Targeting Be and Still Work?," Working Paper Series WP11-15, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    2. Blake, Andrew P & Markovic, Bojan, 2008. "The conduct of global monetary policy and domestic stability," Bank of England working papers 353, Bank of England.
    3. Ornela SHALARI & Fejzi KOLANECI, 2014. "Statistical analysis of the inflation in the case of Albania," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 2(33), pages 67-77, November.
    4. Georgios P. Kouretas & Mark E. Wohar, 2012. "The dynamics of inflation: a study of a large number of countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(16), pages 2001-2026, June.
    5. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2014. "Switching impacts of the output gap on inflation: Evidence from Canada, the UK and the US," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 270-285.
    6. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Sofat, Prakriti & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2009. "Can the facts of UK inflation persistence be explained by nominal rigidity?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 978-992, September.
    7. Abbas Valadkhani, 2015. "Asymmetric size-dependent effects of the output gap on inflation: US evidence from the last half a century," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(33), pages 3525-3539, July.
    8. Cover, James P. & Mallick, Sushanta K., 2012. "Identifying sources of macroeconomic and exchange rate fluctuations in the UK," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1627-1648.
    9. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Tommaso Trani, 2018. "On the Persistence of UK Inflation: A Long-Range Dependence Approach," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1731, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. repec:aea:jecper:v:32:y:2018:i:1:p:195-210 is not listed on IDEAS

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