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Statistical analysis of the inflation in the case of Albania

Listed author(s):
  • Ornela SHALARI

    ()

    (Faculty of Economy, University of Tirana, Albania)

  • Fejzi KOLANECI

    ()

    (University of New York, Tirana, Albania)

Registered author(s):

    This study is a first attempt to investigate whether the inflation rates for Albania follow a normal distribution and the inflation process is a fair game. The general results of the study include: i.The Kolmogorov’s Central Limit Theorem is not valid for Albania’s monthly inflation rates over the period January 1994 – December 2010 at the 99.9 % confidence level. ii. The inflation process for Albania, relates to the monthly inflation rates, over January 1994 – December 2010 is an unfair game. iii. The Kolmogorov’s Central Limit Theorem is not valid for Albania’s quarterly inflation rates over the period January 1996 – December 2010 at the 99.5 % confidence level. iv. The inflation process for Albania, related to the quarterly inflation rates over January 1996 – December 2010 is an unfair game. The observed extreme departures of inflation rates from normal distribution and the unfair game inflation process for Albania over the specified periods seems to have as a surprise to some international scientists and politicians.

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    File URL: http://journals.univ-danubius.ro/index.php/euroeconomica/article/view/2343/2507
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    Article provided by Danubius University of Galati in its journal Euroeconomica.

    Volume (Year): (2014)
    Issue (Month): 2(33) (November)
    Pages: 67-77

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    Handle: RePEc:dug:journl:y:2014:i:2:p:67-77
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.euroeconomica-danubius.ro/

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    1. Peter N. Ireland, 2007. "Changes in the Federal Reserve's Inflation Target: Causes and Consequences," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 1851-1882, December.
    2. Nikolaos Giannellis, 2010. "Nonlinearity and Inflation Rate Differential Persistence: Evidence from the Eurozone," Working Papers 1011, University of Crete, Department of Economics, revised 01 Oct 2010.
    3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, 02.
    4. Edward Nelson, 2009. "An Overhaul of Doctrine: The Underpinning of UK Inflation Targeting," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(538), pages 333-368, 06.
    5. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2006. "Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1193-1224, September.
    6. Francisco Dias & Cláudia Duarte & António Rua, 2010. "Inflation expectations in the euro area: are consumers rational?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(3), pages 591-607, September.
    7. Robert E. Lucas, Jr., 2000. "Inflation and Welfare," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 247-274, March.
    8. Stein, Jerome L, 1974. "Unemployment, Inflation, and Monetarism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 867-887, December.
    9. Michael P. Clements, 2004. "Evaluating the Bank of England Density Forecasts of Inflation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(498), pages 844-866, October.
    10. David F. Hendry, 2001. "Modelling UK inflation, 1875-1991," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 255-275.
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