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Inflation expectations in the euro area: Are consumers rational?

Author

Listed:
  • António Rua
  • Cláudia Duarte
  • Francisco Craveiro Dias

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a quantitative measure for inflation expectations based on consumer survey data. Thereafter, we proceed to testing the rationality assumption. This issue is of noteworthy interest in its own as it is commonly assumed in the theoretical modelling literature that the rational expectations hypothesis holds. This analysis is conducted for the euro area as a whole, as well as for several member countries, using a sample covering the last two decades. Moreover, we also assess if the conclusions hold when one focuses on the post-euro introduction period.

Suggested Citation

  • António Rua & Cláudia Duarte & Francisco Craveiro Dias, 2008. "Inflation expectations in the euro area: Are consumers rational?," Working Papers w200823, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w200823
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:ptu:bdpart:e202407 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Christina Strobach & Carin van der Cruijsen, 2015. "The formation of European inflation expectations: One learning rule does not fit all," DNB Working Papers 472, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    3. Konstantin Makrelov & Channing Arndt & Rob Davies & Laurence Harris, 2018. "Stock-and-flow-consistent macroeconomic model for South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-7, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. António Rua & Cláudia Duarte & Francisco Craveiro Dias, 2009. "Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in the Euro Area and Portugal," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    5. Makrelov, Konstantin & Arndt, Channing & Davies, Rob & Harris, Laurence, 2020. "Balance sheet changes and the impact of financial sector risk-taking on fiscal multipliers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 322-343.
    6. Péter Gábriel, 2010. "Household inflation expectations and inflation dynamics," MNB Working Papers 2010/12, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    7. Puah, Chin-Hong & Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2012. "Rationality of business operational forecasts: evidence from Malaysian distributive trade sector," MPRA Paper 37599, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Piotr Białowolski, 2016. "The influence of negative response style on survey-based household inflation expectations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 509-528, March.
    9. Magdalena Szyszko, 2017. "Central Banks Inflation Forecast and Expectations. A Comparative Analysis," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(3), pages 286-299.
    10. Konstantin Makrelov & Channing Arndt & Rob Davies & Laurence Harris, 2018. "Stock-and-flow-consistent macroeconomic model for South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 007, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. Martina Vránková, 2012. "Inflation Targeting and Behavioural Economics: Introduction," Proceedings of FIKUSZ '12, in: Pál Michelberger (ed.),Proceedings of FIKUSZ '12, pages 91-100, Óbuda University, Keleti Faculty of Business and Management.
    12. Chin-Hong Puah & Shirly Siew-Ling Wong & Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2013. "Testing rational expectations hypothesis in the manufacturing sector in Malaysia," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 303-316, April.
    13. Ornela SHALARI & Fejzi KOLANECI, 2014. "Statistical analysis of the inflation in the case of Albania," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 2(33), pages 67-77, November.
    14. Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Puah, Chin-Hong & Shazali, Abu Mansor, 2011. "Survey Evidence on the Rationality of Business Expectations: Implications from the Malaysian Agricultural Sector," MPRA Paper 36661, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. João Nuno Quelhas, 2024. "Inflation expectations and household choices: the role of financial knowledge," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    16. Peter, Eckley, 2015. "(Non)rationality of consumer inflation perceptions," MPRA Paper 77082, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Carin van der Cruijsen & Anna Samarina, 2021. "Trust in the ECB in turbulent times," Working Papers 722, DNB.
    18. repec:ptu:bdpart:e202405 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Sandra Gomes & Nuno Monteiro & Pedro Pires Ribeiro, 2024. "Euro area inflation expectations: A focus on consumers’ expectations," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    20. Gabriele Galati & Peter Heemeijer & Richhild Moessner, 2011. "How do inflation expectations form? New insights from a high-frequency survey," BIS Working Papers 349, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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